Posts Tagged french
New balls please
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 1st, 2011
One of the key stories going into the French open was the fact they were going to use a new ball type. I sort of guessed this may lead to a few suprises, but it realistically is going to take the whole tournament to work out if it really made much difference. It’s certainly added a few variables to things. This is an interesting article discussing this very point: -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520804576341380613199152.html
Murray Worry
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 28th, 2011
The sign of a true champion is the ability to overcome the impossible. While I’m not suggesting that Murray will win the title at Roland Garros, he certainly showed today that he’s got the guts. After turning over his ankle during the match, his price shot out after people started fearing a retirement. He had already traded at 1.01 adding to the pressure to push the price out.
Murray had his ankle strapped, Dug down deep and got on to close out the match well. An excellent job when he was obviously struggling. This graph is a good illustration of the difficulty of using Betfair grafts to accurately plot trends. On the far left as the price approaches 1.01. This is halfway through the match, the second half of the match as the remaining 90% of the graph!
Here’s a tip: -
If you load matches of interest into Guardian, Bet Angel will store and plot information for each of these matches in real-time. You can then use the advanced charting to look at an accurate graph of historic data. You can do this on any sport.
Looking forward to the second week of Tennis in France.
Good day all round
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 27th, 2011
While the afternoon racing yesterday was a complete farce – shame on you racing, the evening card was much more interesting, enjoyable and full of opportunity. On the horses I managed more than double yesterday, which was a good result.
At Roland Garros the tennis was proving brilliant yesterday as well. With the wind howling around the courts it threw up lots of oppotunity. Some high profile slip ups generated some excellent opportunties. Congratulations to the person who backed Rus at 980 on her way to defeating Clijsters!! My back at 23 is piddling in comparison.
I am experimenting with a new strategy at Roland Garros on top of my normal activity and that is proving very insightful. I am using Tennis trader to look up odds offset from the starting price but at scorelines that are not unreasonable to expect. I am then asking for those odds before the match has started, meaning I am in front of the queue when the time comes. I am hitting around a 70% strike rate at the moment and achieving pretty reasonable trading results. It’s looking promising.
Quieter day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 26th, 2011
It was a quiet day yesterday at Roland Garros. Only five matches really caught my attention compared to nine the day before. With the wind blowing around a lot today I feel we could see some unexpected results today.
I had a more productive day on the horse racing and I am looking forward to the meeting at Sandown tonight, but the afternoon card looks a bit of a farce to be honest! Only ten runners in total in the the first three races?!?!?
Buying a toss of a coin
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 25th, 2011
Apart from the wild volatility, the thing I love about Tennis is the binary nature of the market. Like the toss of a coin there is only one decision to be made, heads or tails, will they wont they. Your decision making process is much easier and can be focused on some key points.
Yesterday I backed Isner at 160, he traded as low as 3.30 before going on to lose. At his ‘worst’ he traded at 200′s. It would have been a massive win had he gone on to get past the first round. He didn’t, but Nadal will need an easier match next time around to settle any nerves. On this post is a list of the odds at which I managed to catch the winner in other matches. These are not the highest odds they traded at, just the odds I backed them at before they went on to win. Not bad for a coin toss! Of course that’s not entirely true, most of these matches were not at evens before the off and there are others I back they just drifted away and out of the tournament but you don’t need many trades at big odds to make it worthwhile overall. Also if you back at big prices you can still trade out for a profit or smaller loss if they can’t close out the match.
Yesterday was a good day, but I’d be lucky to catch as many today. Fingers crossed!
Tennis / Mladenovic v Morita : Match Odds – 3.20
Tennis / Soler Espinosa v Vesnina : Match Odds – 10.00
Tennis / Larsson v Ivanovic : Match Odds – 13.00
Tennis / Querrey v Kohlschreiber : Match Odds – 7.00
Tennis / Clement v Volandri : Match Odds – 8.06
Tennis / Cibulkova v King : Match Odds – 14.00
Tennis / Almagro v Kubot : Match Odds – 27.00
Tennis / Erakovic v Rus : Match Odds – 4.60
Tennis / Roger Vasselin v Rosol : Match Odds – 4.20
French Open Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 24th, 2011
If the tournament continues like this it could be very memorable indeed. On Monday we saw the seeded Berdych crash out against a french qualifier. Andy Murray didn’t repeat the mistake today, but plenty of other big priced winners are coming in today.
Even if you oppose short priced favourites, thanks to the volatility in Tennis, the results can be excellent. Don’t forget to fire up Tennis Trader to check out your potential up or downside in each match before you trade.
Eight day week
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 3rd, 2010
A long week this week on the racing markets. I know a lot of traders who work seven days a week, but I tend not to; this week being an exception.
It’s really the last chance this year to smash in a big week. The Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket, more group racing on Saturday and Sunday in Australia and of course the pièce de résistance, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday.
It’s tiring but its a nice way to enter Q4 when things slow up considerably. I’m already booking my holiday and other activities and looking forward to a quieter more relaxed approach to things. Still a busier than usual month ahead but it gets a lot quieter from now on, on the racing front. It’s been a great year so far, lets hope I can do a bit more before it’s over.
Soderling vs Nadal – The ninth game
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 6th, 2010
What’s the significance of the ninth game?
In a competitive final you could expect both players to try and play out of their skin. But, you could also expect that both would try do avoid doing anything stupid in the first set. It’s important to get off to a good start, but it’s equally important not to blow it early on. So a game of cat and mouse, probing your opponent and holding serve, is a quite likely occurance in a big match.
If the match goes to 4-4 in the first set, then an opportunity will open up in the ninth game. At this point if you can break the serve of your opponent you then serve for the set. So stepping up your game, trying a few tight or tricky shots will pay expectional dividends in the ninth game. If the game is 30-30, you are only potentially two points away from being a set up. If your opponent sends the first serve out, then you can step inside the baseline and look to get only one point from your target. The ninth game is very significant given the right circumstances.
When Soderling and Nadal step out tomorrow if they reach the ninth game they will be priced at 1.30 and 4.30, pretty much the same as they started at. One set to Nadal would see him trade at 1.13, if it went to Soderling, Nadal would be 1.72. Look at yesterdays Womans final for evidence of what happens if that ninth game is broken.
While breaks of serve are important, some are more important that others. There are many similar points throughout a match. Put yourself in the players shoes and you will soon understand where they are.
Stosur vs Schiavoone - Break in the ninth
Betfair takes a swipe at French legislation
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 19th, 2010
The European union is often termed the “common market“, a collection of inter-trading free trade economies where goods and services are free to . Unfortunately a lot of the market has nothing in common and there are quite a few trade imbalances in the markets. Until such time as taxation, legislation and spending are centralised I will always be sceptical as to whether the Euro and the trading bloc can continue without significant tensions. But that’s another story!
On Friday Betfair confirmed that they will no longer accept bets from any of its French-based customers. Betfair said it welcomed the principle of member states moving from a monopoly model to a licensed regime, but warned that the new French gaming laws impose restrictions on licensed operators which are both protectionist and go against the interests of French consumers.
“We are looking very hard at the French market and how we might operate within the new licensed regime,” said Tim Phillips, Director of European Public Affairs at Betfair. “Though it’s not impossible for a newcomer to create a commercially viable business, most projections show it will be very difficult to do so, given the proposed restrictions imposed on licence holders. “French legislation will certainly benefit the incumbent players and the ultimate loser will be the French consumer. The new law does not adequately open the former monopoly’s market to true competition from other operators. We hope that the review, scheduled 18 months from now, will amend the law to address these flaws.”
Moi?