Posts Tagged fulham
Throwing it all away
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 15th, 2011
You have to feel sorry for Fulham. All they needed to do was match the result of Wisla Krakow, preferably win, to qualify. In the end it was the very last touch of the match that sent them out.
Two key mistakes cost them the match. The First OB goal was scored from a free kick and the taker of the kick very cleverly moved the ball an extra foot or two to the right of the wall. The Fulham team missed this and the player was able to curl the ball around the wall and beyond the reach of Fulham’s inexperienced goalkeeper. Very clever play by OB.
The next was definitely a mistake by Fulham. Instead of closing out the match in the dying moments they were still trying to score. More experienced professionals would have just run the clock down. OB got possession from a failed attempt on goal, broke up the pitch, sent in a good cross and with the last touch of the match, the ball was headed in the back of the net and Fulham were out of Europe. That worked out really well for me but I was furious at Fulham for such sloppy play. I can only imagine how the Fulham fans felt.
If anything last night was a good example of why you should always green up if you are given the chance! I’m looking forward to this evenings matches!
Europa league final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 12th, 2010
Who would put it past Fulham to end the season in glory tonight? Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus and Hamburg have all been beaten by Fulham en route to the final, with just Atletico Madrid now standing in their way.
The match itself is priced for a low scoring affair with a slight edge to Athletico. The market is pricing in a paltry 2.40 goals, which means the draw should be a likely result for 90mins. I predict if you played this match 100 times the average time of the first goal would be around 34 minutes. There is around an 8% chance of a goal between 0-10 minutes.
We found a total of 134 matches on our database which had very similar characteristics to this match. Over these matches an average of 2.33 goals where scored with a 0.50 advantage to the shorter priced team (Ahletico in this case). 45% ended as home wins, 22% away wins and 32% draws. 61% of the time these matches produced under 2.50 goals, pricing the unders market around 1.64.
Trading the draw and scenarios based on a lack of goals / early goals seems a sensible option tonight.
Well done Fulham
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 29th, 2010
Dead and buried a few seasons ago and now in the Europa league final, an excellent campaign and a deserved final place. They really turned over the odds consistantly and provided a lot of entertainment and profit along the way. Well done!
Europa league
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 29th, 2010
Really looking forward to the Europe league this evening. There are strong cases for a goal coming from any of the four teams this evening. So a strategy oriented around this or NOT 0-0 seem sensible this evening. Come later in the game, if there are no goals, neither side will have anything to lose with a strong push in the last few minutes. It will be an interesting night.
Last night I was spot on about the Barca – Inter game and it really felt like it was unlikely to be a three goal or more game. Don’t really know where the market got that from? Tonight is less clear cut but Liverpool vs Atl Madrid is priced for near on three goals and Fulham vs. Hamburg two and a bit. I don’ t think either is unreasonable given the aggregate scores. The market is expecting at least one Liverpool goal.
Europa League
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 18th, 2010
More fun planned this evening with an infinite range of permutations available on each match. But the two English matches do look the most interesting.
Fulham are 3-1 down, but a home goal would create a massive difference to that score line and you get the feeling anything is possible with Fulham. I wouldn’t bet against Fulham pulling it off this evening. The match is priced for 2.6 goals with a slight advantage to the home team. I think that’s too low given the scenarios available.
A team I would be tempted to bet against is Liverpool. OK they thumped Portsmouth the other day, but their confidence is fragile and I don’t know many teams that wouldn’t fancy having a go at them at the moment. A slip up in defence tonight could shred their nerves to the limit or an edgy start and the crowd will get no doubt pass their feelings to the players. Defeat for Benitez could spell the beginning of the end. Liverpool are at quite a short price to defeat Lille and are priced for 2.8 goals with a 1.50 goal advantage. While they should win, I am sure Lille will look to catch them on the break and change the entire complexion of the tie. I don’t think it will take much to do that so I’ll be looking for an upset.
If you are new to football trading, try trading before off. This will give you some risk free cash to splurge in play!