Posts Tagged germany
European Court rejects gambling restrictions
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 8th, 2010
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11234128
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) said German laws that protect state monopolies for gambling were “unjustifiable”.
The ruling could open the way for foreign betting companies to establish a presence in Germany.
Germany vs Spain
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 7th, 2010
The market is priced for 2.40 goals or thereabouts with a 1.20 goals to Spain. The Germans have stormed through to the semi final whereas the Spanish appear to have ground out results but both teams slipped up in the group stages.
Some interesting notes I’ve copied from elsewhere: -
- Victory at Euro 2008 was only Spain’s second win in eight competitive games against the Germans.
- Germany are unbeaten in three previous World Cup games against the Spanish.
- Overall, the two nations have met 20 times: Germany have won eight and Spain six, with six draws.
- Germany have reached this stage in six of the last eight World Cups.
- While Italy beat the Germans in 1970 and 2006, it is 52 years since a side other than the Azzurri defeated them at the semi-final stage.
I’ve always been a keen advocate of psychology over stats and I think the Germans definitely have the wind behind them. The Spanish have the weight of expectation on them as they are the first Spainish team to reach the semi finals of the World Cup. By contrast this will be Germany’s 11th world cup semi final and most German’s wouldn’t have expected that this time around.
I’m tempted to plump for a contrary trade by favouring the German’s to win a low scoring contest.
Ouch, that’s embarrassing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
I don’t think it needs any more comment really does it? Apparently the English league is the most competitive and highly paid in the world with some of the best individuals. And individuals they will remain!!!
I’ve consoled myself by smashing into a few horse races that followed the match, sorry about that! But one of them was the Irish Derby, too good to miss. Grabbing a few hundred will allow me to drown my sorrows tonight.
Obviously blatter is happy to see this time and time again
Coin flippers re-union at 3pm
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
Had a look at THE match stats this morning.
The market has priced in just a shade over two goals for the Germany vs England match. England have a 0.10 goal advantage. The market is pricing in a tight nervous affair where one goal could be enough, but a draw is the most likely result. Obviously if you share two goals amongst two teams then a draw is very likely.
I sense a nervous two hours come 3pm but having read the Germany press this morning, putting the rally calls aside, Germany seem equally nervous after there last two performances. This is where managers and tactics can make a big difference.
I won’t be taking a position during the match for obvious reasons, but will be trading pre-off. Good luck if you are having a go. Going to be a great day in the UK for watching the match, will it be a memorable one?
The maths behind penalities – Part Two
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
Yesterday we saw that goalkeepers are basically glory seekers, or at least showing that they understand the psychology of failing the right way. Today we give a final answer on what David James should do if faced by a German penalty today.
Often the best way to look at something is to turn it on it’s head. When we looked at penalities we saw that while kicks are randomly distributed, the goalkeepers actions are not. So lets look at when they get it right.
In the sample we were looking at, 32/268 penalties were ‘saved’, around 11%. Saved shots were reasonably equally distributed whether the taker sent them left right or down the middle. But, when you combine this with goalkeeping stats one thing really stands out. If the goalkeeper stands in the middle and a shot is sent in roughly that direction, it was saved 60% of the time. This is more than double the rate at which a goalkeeper who guesses right can save a kick. Obviously if a shot is sent left and the goalkeeper goes right the strike rate is err.. zero.
Whichever way you look at it, standing still is actually a good tactic. It’s difficult to reach the ball in a far corner from a good penalty taker, so it’s better to captialise on nervous takers who don’t want to risk missing. Of course this all depends on one penalty being independant from another. Let on that you are going to stand still and you increase the chance that the ball will not go down the centre. That is where it gets more complex, should your strikers assume the goalkeeper will dive or stand still? Logic tells you to send it into the corner but reality indicates that at least half the time the goalkeeper will dive that way. It all comes down to psychology. With England so fragile I would be tempted to suggest, just keep in on target and hit it hard. James should stand still and be prepared to get it in the neck for ‘not trying’. That should do the trick.
If you want to do more research ahead of today’s match I suggest you visit: -
http://www.penaltyshootouts.co.uk/
For the definite way to take a penalty, I’ll leave it to the master.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/2275796.stm
The maths behind penalities – Part One
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 26th, 2010
Groups stages, tight games, can’t afford to lose, Germany, England. This must only add up to one thing, penalties!
Are we going to suffer again, will there be the same agony as in prior years? Penalties is another area I have looked at and I think the findings may be of use to any prospective England goalkeeper facing a penalty, football traders may also benefit.
First off, you can reach some easy conclusions. From spot to net, the ball will travel just 12 yards and it is estimated that this will happen in about 0.30 seconds. Stikers should score from this distance! This also forces each goalkeeper to make a decision about what to do, BEFORE, the ball is struck; he has to anticipate which way to dive. He could dive left, right or stand still.
This is where a subtle peice of psychology comes into play, it is what I shall call the action / inaction bias. Imagine the scenario, you know that any goal in a match in the knockout stages will be significant and that by saving a penalty you will almost certainly have a significant impact on the match and on your status. What do you do? If you stand in the middle of the goal like a lemon you could be a national pariah if a goal is conceded. Dive spectacularly and tip it around the post and the praise will come flooding in. What happens is that the goalkeeper ends up facing the same dilemma and regret pang as a gambler or trader. The goalkeeper is fearing the negative consequences of his actions, rather than making a logical and reasoned choice. This fear is so overwhelming it has a strange effect. In 286 matches analysed, the goalkeeper dived in one direction or another 268 times. He went for glory 94% of the time. Did the goalkeeper make a logical choice? To do this you need to analyse where the ball went.
Over the same 286 matches the penalty taker more or less evenly distributed the shots left, right and centre either by design or accident. In the data I looked at there was a bias to the right hand side but there could be many reasons for that. Excluding the bias it was a random shot choice. Therefore the goal keepers definitely were making a sub-optimal decision by choosing to dive so often. Penalty takers struck the ball down the middle nearly 29% of the time, goalkeepers only stood there around 6% of the time! If you are a goalkeeper, standing idly would appear to be a decent choice but as shots were equally distributed then any random choice would be sensible.
If you are a striker then you should engage in some gamesmanship to encourage the goalkeeper to dive, then send the ball down the middle. But there is more logic to taking and saving and that’s what I will cover tomorrow….
England’s fate already known
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 18th, 2010
When England step out onto the pitch this evening they will know what they need to do. If the USA get a good result against Slovenia, then England really need to dispatch Algeria with confidence. If not it all goes to the last game. I say this because the English will probably want to avoid the impressive Germans. No point in holding out for a draw in the knockout phase is there?
The US are priced at 2.20 goals against Slovenia with a 0.40 goal advantage. By a coincidence that is the same advantage as a normal match with home advantage, so the market is saying the US are effectively playing at home; well sort of! England are a much more generous 2.70 goals with a 2.00 goal advantage, they should win comfortably, should.
Two mitigating factors in play therefore before England kick off, the US result and how the German’s play in the first match of the day. If Capello is worth his salt he will use these two earlier results to really fire up the team. Which ever way these early matches go, I think it’s advantage England thanks to the timing.