Posts Tagged golf
US PGA Golf
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on August 12th, 2011
Positive movers from the US PGA from open to the close of day one. Some big movers in there delivered a lot of profit on day one. It’s been a busy day in Atlanta:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/golf/14499302.stm
Steve Stricker – 27 to 3.7
Adam Scott – 29 to 23
Bill Haas – 150 to 48
Simon Dyson – 170 to 65
Jerry Kelly – 1000 to 65
Matteo Manassero – 250 to 65
Davis Love III – 190 to 65
Trevor Immelman – 270 to 85
Scott Verplank – 460 to 80
Brendon De Jonge – 240 to 75
Robert Karlsson – 120 to 110
Anders Hansen – 280 to 75
Stewart Cink – 150 to 95
John Senden – 290 to 90
Alexander Noren – 260 to 210
Ricky Barnes – 280 to 120
Mark Wilson – 310 to 110
Shaun Micheel – 1000 to 95
Brandt Jobe – 320 to 110
D.A. Points – 420 to 170
Miguel Angel Jimenez – 440 to 220
Brian Davis – 420 to 230
Brendan Steele – 910 to 330
Camilo Villegas – 320 to 230
Jhonattan Vegas – 670 to 450
Johnson Wagner – 800 to 520
Harrison Frazar – 940 to 710
David Horsey – 900 to 810
Pablo Larrazabal – 730 to 500
Johan Edfors – 770 to 610
Getting better at Golf
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on August 5th, 2011
In real life and on the markets!
Out with my son again this morning who got his first par today and I managed to get round the whole nine holes on par. Haven’t done that for a few years, one birdie, one bogey. I’m also getting better at understanding the golf markets. It’s taken a few years but I am finally getting under the skin on the markets. It’s proved pretty interesting and it’s also been a bit of a learning curve as I am trying to predict things on a very broad basis rather than a narrow one and that has proved the key to getting to the bottom of the markets. I’ve drifted outside the majors into other competitions now I am confident in what I am doing. I don’t know whether these will work as well, but there is only one way to find out! Anyhow, day one movers from the Bridgestone Invitational, returns to a £10 back bet: -
Adam Scott – 55 to 5.5 – £90
Jason Day – 40 to 6.8 – £48.82
Nick Watney – 28 to 11 – £15.45
Tiger Woods – 19 to 15 – £2.67
Martin Laird – 130 to 42 – £20.95
Ryan Moore – 90 to 44 – £10.45
Rory Sabbatini – 120 to 44 – £17.27
Stewart Cink – 100 to 48 – £10.83
Brandt Snedeker – 110 to 42 – £16.19
Kyung-Tae Kim – 210 to 120 – £7.5
Thomas Bjorn – 310 to 95 – £22.63
Jonathan Byrd – 240 to 150 – £6
D.A. Points – 380 to 100 – £28
Keegan Bradley – 250 to 180 – £3.89
Pablo Larrazabal – 460 to 170 – £17.06
Ryo Ishikawa – 410 to 200 – £10.5
Arjun Atwal – 810 to 510 – £5.88
Open Source
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 17th, 2011
Continuing my theme of getting more involved in sports rather than just trading them I am headed of to Royal St’ Georges today for the final day of the open golf. I’ll be able to see what it looks like at source. I hope it doesn’t rain too much.
No mobile phones or PDA’s allowed on the course, so no greensiding possible! I’ll just have to enjoy the day.
Open golf – Best trades
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 16th, 2011
For a full list and other lists, visit the forum.
The Open has been brilliant so far. The highlight today was the hole in one by Tom Watson, amazing. When my shoulder is better I’m getting out there again to reduce my handicap. It’s inspiring to see a 61 year old holding his own against the worlds top golfers.
This is the last list now as we turn our attention to specific golfers for the remaining two days. The weather is going to turn real horrible for the remaining days, so it’s fingers on the lay button and the hunt is on for the golfers who can play low accurate shots, or who are just plain lucky!
These are the top ten returns for £10 stakes from the start of the tournament to the cut.
Lucas Glover – 600 to 18.5 – £314.32
Thomas Bjorn – 600 to 27 – £212.22
Chad Campbell – 500 to 34 – £137.06
Miguel Angel Jimenez – 290 to 20 – £135
Darren Clarke – 220 to 17.5 – £115.71
Tom Lehman – 700 to 90 – £67.78
Anders Hansen – 260 to 38 – £58.42
Pablo Larrazabal – 400 to 60 – £56.67
George Coetzee – 280 to 55 – £40.91
Dustin Johnson – 95 to 21 – £35.24
Big moves
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 15th, 2011
I thought the first day of the Open Golf at Sandwich would be interesting and that’s exactly how it has proved. For a full list of movers visit the thread on the forum.
Golf has really grown on me as a trading sport and the small gap between the leader-board and oblivion creates some fantastic opportunities. With a £10 stake this is what you could have greened up for on the top movers at the end of day one. Plenty of room for manoeuvre, mistakes and a few losses elsewhere.
Thomas Bjorn – 600 to 25 – £230
Lucas Glover – 340 to 28 – £111.43
Tom Lewis – 520 to 44 – £108.18
Miguel Angel Jimenez – 290 to 34 – £75.29
Kyle Stanley – 560 to 110 – £40.91
Webb Simpson – 160 to 32 – £40
Ricky Barnes – 370 to 90 – £31.11
Pablo Larrazabal – 400 to 100 – £30
Darren Clarke – 220 to 55 – £30
Fredrik Andersson Hed – 420 to 110 – £28.18
The Open Championship
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 11th, 2011
Had my first really detailed look at the Open today. McIlroy has drifted a bit since my first casual glance and that makes for a much more interesting market.
I tend to have a good go at the majors unless there is a very short priced favourite, so the drift on McIlroy is welcome. The weather forecast is mixed for later in the week so that increases my interest. I will probably be heading over to Kent on Sunday so I am looking to take a position to trade off before then. I don’t have any strong opinions at the moment but I am active in the market and will let you know if I find anything interesting.
If you want some background, here is an interesting overview: -
http://www.espn.co.uk/golf/sport/story/100409.html
Final day of a busy week
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 18th, 2011
Well done to Rory McIlroy who continued to rip through the US Open. Unfortunately this scuppered my trade which needs a competitive field to work. At 1.40ish this leaves only one possible strategy, to back or lay McIlroy. I reckon most people will lay McIlroy given his blow up in the US Masters. It’s a clear fact however, that the error most people make is to take past trends and extrapolate them into the future. Rather than go on gut instinct, I’m going to knock up a spreadsheet this morning and see just what McIlroy has to do to hold onto his six shot lead over 36 holes. I reckon he has learned from his Augusta disaster, he certainly interviewed well last night.
Ascot was tougher yesterday, but I’m well ahead of last year year; I have done well to learn from my experience last year. I don’t think I’ll be able to manage a record but you never know. I’ve aimed for my second best ever and will see where I end up. I managed to pick up some decent results from other races yesterday so that balanced things out. Overall it’s been a good week.
Royal Ascot / Open Golf Thursday
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf, Horse Racing on June 17th, 2011
Another good day in the bag for Royal Ascot, but I left it late today. I didn’t get a real blockbuster race till near the end of the card. I had to work much harder than yesterday and I took my foot of Betdaq, as working harder meant I couldn’t keep focus on two exchanges effectively. I did broaden my activity out on Betdaq though to other races and they worked well. So after Ascot I’m going to continue my work there.
I did have a hiccup mid afternoon when my Internet connection went down. Quick as a flash I went to my back up connection and continued, but I never found out why it was only my main machine that failed. A quick reboot between races brought it back to life.
Overall, The weather made the markets a bit jumpy and there were some real moves around. The biggest was when the trainer of a horse came on and said his horse was unlikely to win because of the ground. See the graph below for what happened next. The weather has been incredibly poor this week and heavy rain has set in again this morning. So I think we could be in for another tricky day today unfortunately.
I got off to a great start on the US open golf, so it looks like it is going to be a very good week indeed. Here is a list of the top ten +ve movers overnight.
Rory McIlroy – 23 to 3.8
Charl Schwartzel – 80 to 14.5
Sergio Garcia – 90 to 25
Y. E. Yang – 170 to 24
Graeme McDowell – 70 to 28
Bubba Watson – 55 to 38
Louis Oosthuizen – 250 to 32
Brandt Snedeker – 70 to 38
Jason Day – 46 to 36
Stewart Cink – 100 to 50
For a full list of movers, visit the forum.
US Open golf
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on June 16th, 2011
I love the majors as they very often throw up some excellent opportunties. So while things are very busy at the moment, I will be taking time out today to open up with some positions on the US open.
The Blue Course at Congressional is longer than when previous majors were held there and the par has been reduced to 71. That is almost certaintly going to make the scoring much more competitive and the scores lower. Should be interesting.
Record day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 12th, 2011
Phew, what a weekend that was!
We are now entering peak season for all things sports related and this weekend was a good warm up for the months ahead. It also set a new bench mark for me as the Saturday just gone turned out to be my best ever day on Betfair! Whether I can ever beat such a storming weekend is another question. When you have been going for as long as me, you need a little luck now and again to deliver an exceptional result.
Saturday wasn’t without it’s problems though. Betfair gave us a sharp reminder why it pays to be vigilant. I hinted in the recent newsletter, again, that you should have a back up plan ready for Saturday and so it proved. The site was under a lot of pressure on Saturday and it coped pretty well, but eventually an API server went AWOL before being taken off-line 1/2 hour later. In that time prices via the API were all over the place. However, no sooner had we picked up that an API server was throwing out false prices than I switched to a different connection mode and continued. Not the first time this year I have had to do that! At moments like that, the connection modes on Bet Angel are utterly invaluable. Despite this occurring about 45 mins before the Grand National, I was able to continue with confidence and well beat last years total. That was a big step forward on the way to a good day.
The National wasn’t a record day for Betfair however. Matched bet turnover was £7m by post time this year vs. £7m last year and £7.5m in 2009. I doubled my turnover on the race year on year, so if you strip out that activity and that of others it’s quite an interesting story behind the numbers.
Racing went well and would have been great on it’s own, but it was the US Masters that delivered a nice bonus. I managed to get the eventual winner at 120′s and a host of others at good prices. Of course I didn’t hold these positions, I traded them out as they shortened. But when you back at three figures and lay off at short odds, that’s big green up territory. The Masters was exceptional trading fodder this year. In the morning I was on BBC radio Berskhire and tipped a lay on McIlroy. As I stated at the time, I didn’t want to do this as it would have been great to see McIlroy win, but my research had told me it was a good laying opportunity. I didn’t expect him to blow up so badly, so I hope it doesn’t become an issue for him. He is still young and has a big career in front of him, so I am sure it is just a matter of time before he is competing for honours again.
No doubt like Mr McIlroy, I’m taking a rest at the start of the week. I was exhausted after this weekend, so I need some time to recharge my batteries.
US Masters – The cut
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2011
It’s been an excellent Masters so far and the big mover before the cut was Jason Day who was trading at 300′s yesterday and has come into 16′s. Fortunately, I had some money on Day at 240′s, so that’s really made up the numbers at the cut. Tiger looks menacing so I have taken profits on positions and will re-appraise during the third day. I have plenty of profit to play with now. If I can’t see any new opportunities then that will be it for the tournament. It’s warming up nicely for the final day. Lets hope McIlroy can keep up his excellent performance so far, would be an amazing result for him.
Tiring weekend ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 8th, 2011
First day of Aintree is now behind me and I can take that knowledge forward to today. I had a difficult start yesterday but ended up doing OK on the day overall in the end. I think I could have done better, but lets see what today brings. If you remember Cheltenham, you will be pleased to know that the Betdaq markets are working well at Aintree also, so bear than in mind today if you are finding the going tough on Betfair. The extra money on Betfair can hold things up and slow down your fill rate, that doesn’t happen on Betdaq. It’s a sort of goldilocks effect, not too little not too much.
I got off to a good start on the Masters and despite only correctly tipping Immelman to open well I managed to pick up some meaty prices on others so it all worked out in the end! I know little about Alvaro Quiros but did managed to back him at 190, his odds are now at 15′s. Thank you Alvaro! A few of the favoured players have already blown up so it’s been a pretty favourable start.
Plenty of racing on today, Masters this evening and the National tomorrow; football can take a back seat for the moment. It’s going to be a tiring weekend.
US Masters golf
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on April 7th, 2011
First trade of the tournament is already done. When the market was formed Woods was way too short at 5′s so I laid him. His best finish this year is T10 and there is no evidence at the moment that he was anywhere near a 4/1 chance for the masters. It turned out a lot of people thought the same and he is at a much bigger price and I am out for the moment. Not very often you get a trade like that before things get underway!
When things are underway I will start hunting for those big prices that are going to shorten up. The Masters has thrown up some big priced winners in the past. It’s such a tricky course that anybody who is in the zone can see it through at big prices. On the flip side a well skilled player can make one mistake and blow up as a result. Recent big price winners were Trevor Immelman , Zach Johnson and Angel Cabrera whom all won at odds well exceeding 100.
I have half an eye on Vijay Singh as one to follow, his form has ticked upwards recently and he has an excellent record at Augusta. Plenty of prospects in the field.
Dubai far from a failure for Woods
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on February 13th, 2011
OK, Woods may have flunked the last round in Dubai but it seems other ventures in Dubai worked out quite nicely, even though they didn’t!
Dubai desert classic
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on February 11th, 2011
Received a useful tip earlier in the week about Thomas Aiken. Six of the last seven tournaments he has finished in the top 20 and was available at 120′s. After the first round he is five under par, in second place and in to 25′s. I’ve also backed Sterne at 440 to 50′s, Martin 450 to 75 and a fair few others.
No trading out for me until they finish the second round. All I need now is a leading contender to shank a shot into the rough and I’ll be sorted!
Westwood done good
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on October 31st, 2010
An Englishman at the top of the world golf rankings, never thought I would say that. With the declining Woods, his 281 week reign at the top of the sport has ended and Westwood has taken over. Is there something about been a good golfer that requires you to be named after some of the equipment? I’m off to get my name changed by deed poll!
I remember his form dipping after the birth of the his first child (trading opportunity in there) but he has come back to be a great golfer since them despite not clinching a major yet. It takes a great deal to be the top of anything you do, so credit where it’s due for Lee getting to the very top, however achieved.
Woods slumps to career worst
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 9th, 2010
Woods finished on 18 over at the WCG Bridgstone in Wisconsin, his worst performance as a professional. Playing at elite level in any sport is often about state of mind and Woods is obviously struggling at the moment. I’m suprised at the prices he has been offered to win these tournaments. His lack of form since returning from his break has thrown up many quality trading opportunities.
For the full story head on over to ESPN which has a good summary of the story: -
http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/columns/story?columnist=harig_bob&id=5447166
Another big price winner
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 19th, 2010
I am really starting to like Golf as a trading medium.
I tend to carefully model sports before getting deeply involved with them. Doing that allows me to test the up and downside limits to a strategy and that in turn allows me to know what I need to do to be successful. I tend to hunt for the downside to any strategy as that allows me to frame it at which point it clearly defines the upside for me. This is why I often suggest that people trade at random. If your random losses are X and your strike rate Y then you immediately know what you need to do to profit. If you can’t get near that metric, you either need to start again or think of a new way into the market.
Golf is tricky to model. Players heading off at different times, playing on different difficulties of holes. But for anybody that has played golf, one characteristic stands out. One good shot can make a good round and one bad shot can ruin in. These characteristics can send players rocketing up or down the leader-board.
The practical upshot of this is that big outsiders can shorten quickly and short prices can lengthen quickly. This seems to throw up some really big priced winners. Last year in the Open Championship we had Cink, an 800 shot, battling Watson, a 1000 shot, in a play off. This year the unknown Oosthuizen romped home at 490!
If I would have let my bet on Oosthuizen stand I would have made a small fortune, but I just find it impossible not to approach every market without carefully planning out my approach. As a consequence there were others I backed and I also laid off some of the substantial potential on Oosthuizen. Being a relative rookie I did expect him to crumble a bit under the pressure, but Oosthuizen did a great job of playing percentage golf over the weekend and with such a gap to the other contenders it was the right thing to do. The others couldn’t have any impact without taking risk and than ultimately led to mistakes.
Overall, a good tournament. Just itching for the next one now!
Wel gedaan!
Time to sit back and enjoy
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 17th, 2010
With the hard work out of the way on the Golf, it’s now time to sit back and enjoy the weekend play. With plenty of profit in the bank I can take some speculative positions without too much worry and don’t have to watch the market like a hawk. I hope the weekend produces a thrilling climax to the tournament.
Open golf day two
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 16th, 2010
Here is the list of my best backs from the open. Oosthuzien is the best having crashed in from 490 to just 14′s this morning. This means for my ‘massive’ £4.25 stake I can green up for near on £150 on just Oosthuizen. Daly touched teens early on as well. Three of these bets are on the top ten ‘odds leaderboard’ so its been a cracking start. Would have been even better if some of the shorter prices had blown up, but there are still quite a few that have slipped out of contention. Roll on the cut!
The Open golf championship
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 15th, 2010
If you want a clue as to how to trade this event, just have a look at the weather forecast for a massive clue. Changed course, competitive tournament, poor weather ahead of the cut.
I notice that after nearly winning it last year Tom Watson is priced at 300′s for something similar this year. I don’t think that is realistic, he was 1000 last year. Stewart Cink is 150, he was 800′s last year. Justin Rose is priced to be in contention, but a lot of his golf is on the US tour now, not sure if that form will translate to the Open.
Curiously, Justin Rose used to live near me and his local course was just up the road. Only when he was an amateur breaking into the professional scene though. We did end up playing on the same course once at the same time and other than having dinner with Colin Montgomerie once, that’s about the closest I will ever get to the claret jug.
One thing I do love about golf though is the ability to play on the same course and relive the famous shots from the big tournaments. I think that adds something special to the game of golf. Trying running on Old Trafford with your mates to have a kick around and you will be arrested, with Golf you can tread in the same footsteps as those you admire. It’s a inspiring feeling.
Woods to take indefinite break
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on December 12th, 2009
Tiger Woods is taking an indefinite break from professional golf to tackle problems in his private life. In a statement on his website, he said he was aware of the disappointment “my infidelity” had caused to his family. “I have decided to take an indefinite break from professional golf. I need to focus my attention on being a better husband, father, and person.”
http://web.tigerwoods.com/news/article/200912117801012/news/
Anybody who trades the golf markets will know that a market with woods in it, is really a case of will he or wont he win? With Woods missing from the field, this will significantly open up these markets and create a whole host of opportunities.
I hope its not the end of Woods, I doubt it, so hopefully we can look forward to his return at some point in the not too distant future. In the meantime its a massive chance for some of the close rivals to get a decent shot at a major.
My favourite Tiger moment and one of the best ever in golf: -
Electrifying end to the US Masters
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on April 12th, 2009
Already green I am sat down enjoying the final day of the masters and there is some fantastic golf being played. It could be a really exciting finish if this level of play is kept up. Great stuff.
US Masters golf – Todd Hamilton
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on April 11th, 2009
Hamilton will always be remembered for winning the UK open at odds of 1000. In the US Masters Hamilton was also priced at 1000 and is now 60′s. Any money placed on Hamilton at those starting odds would now be worth a greened up total of 15.67 times your indivdual stake on Hamilton!!! Food for thought!
Master the masters
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on April 9th, 2009
While golf isn’t a main sport for me I do like to have a play around at some of the bigger tournaments. Here are a couple of hints for you.
It’s almost impossible for the favourite NOT to drift at some point during the tournament. So laying the favourite is a good strategy. Tiger woods always makes me nervous, but when you look at the game of golf you would need the favourite to have a perfect round and no dropped shots and no contenders for the price to only come in. As anybody who plays golf knows, that’s virtually impossible. A good round can be destroyed At 4′s Woods is more or less the same sort of price he has been in previous circumstances but you have to wonder how he will perform in his first major since his knee problems. Ever the professional, you wouldn’t bet on Woods having a mare. But taking an impassionate view it would be a fairy tale for him to blitz the field over four days.
Luck can play a big part in majors and one interesting aspect of stroke play golf is the cut. After two days you will lose a big chunk of the field when and how this happens can create opportunity if you back or lay the field. You often get complete outsiders coming in on the crest of a wave and this allows you to catch a big price and lay off at much smaller values. I often back 25% of the field at larger prices and hope that a big outsider has a good run at some point. If this comes early I will trade out, but often the cut will increase the chances of a profit. Even if you use tiny amounts of money backing something in the hundreds and trading off at lower prices can produce excellent results.