Posts Tagged grand national
Record day
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair, Golf, Horse Racing on April 12th, 2011
Phew, what a weekend that was!
We are now entering peak season for all things sports related and this weekend was a good warm up for the months ahead. It also set a new bench mark for me as the Saturday just gone turned out to be my best ever day on Betfair! Whether I can ever beat such a storming weekend is another question. When you have been going for as long as me, you need a little luck now and again to deliver an exceptional result.
Saturday wasn’t without it’s problems though. Betfair gave us a sharp reminder why it pays to be vigilant. I hinted in the recent newsletter, again, that you should have a back up plan ready for Saturday and so it proved. The site was under a lot of pressure on Saturday and it coped pretty well, but eventually an API server went AWOL before being taken off-line 1/2 hour later. In that time prices via the API were all over the place. However, no sooner had we picked up that an API server was throwing out false prices than I switched to a different connection mode and continued. Not the first time this year I have had to do that! At moments like that, the connection modes on Bet Angel are utterly invaluable. Despite this occurring about 45 mins before the Grand National, I was able to continue with confidence and well beat last years total. That was a big step forward on the way to a good day.
The National wasn’t a record day for Betfair however. Matched bet turnover was £7m by post time this year vs. £7m last year and £7.5m in 2009. I doubled my turnover on the race year on year, so if you strip out that activity and that of others it’s quite an interesting story behind the numbers.
Racing went well and would have been great on it’s own, but it was the US Masters that delivered a nice bonus. I managed to get the eventual winner at 120′s and a host of others at good prices. Of course I didn’t hold these positions, I traded them out as they shortened. But when you back at three figures and lay off at short odds, that’s big green up territory. The Masters was exceptional trading fodder this year. In the morning I was on BBC radio Berskhire and tipped a lay on McIlroy. As I stated at the time, I didn’t want to do this as it would have been great to see McIlroy win, but my research had told me it was a good laying opportunity. I didn’t expect him to blow up so badly, so I hope it doesn’t become an issue for him. He is still young and has a big career in front of him, so I am sure it is just a matter of time before he is competing for honours again.
No doubt like Mr McIlroy, I’m taking a rest at the start of the week. I was exhausted after this weekend, so I need some time to recharge my batteries.
A Grand day out
Last year’s Grand National will be remembered for Tony McCoy finally winning his first race with Don’t Push It. The pair are ready for battle again this year and the biggest race of the year offers a great chance for traders to profit at Aintree.
Most of what we do means we’ve normally settled up before the race, but that’s not to say there are no opportunities mid-race. We’ve had a look at a few horses in the running tomorrow and uncovered some top trading opportunities for astute race-goers.
Don’t Push It is trading at around 13.0 and will be another popular choice for the Aintree punters. McCoy’s ride will likely go off at a single figured price, so it would pay to back him now and lay off before the race goes off.
Ballybriggs is well suited for this race and is a strong traveller and jumper. A winner at the 2010 Kim Muir at Cheltenham, but showed signs of tiredness towards the end. This offers a great chance to back him at around 15.0 and then lay off as the race develops at a short price.
Midnight Club is likely to go off as favourite and this offers a lay option. His jumping is not the most reliable, while there are concerns about his ability to last the race. At a short price it’s worth taking him on.
Calgary Bay is trading at around the 34.0 mark and performed admirably at last’s years race. The trip might be a problem, but he should start well. This offers another opportunity to back at a large price before looking to lay off as the race progresses.
State of Play and Big Fella Thanks, 32.0 and 19.0 respectively, are both likely to trade shorter in-running than their starting price. Both have run well here before, although stamina is a now slight concern. It might be a good idea to back them at a high price and get out before they run out of steam.
On a broader note, a popular strategy in recent years has been backing the front runners who are left standing after a few fences. I’ve no opinion on this strategy having never tried it myself but it seems logical enough!
Tiring weekend ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf, Horse Racing on April 8th, 2011
First day of Aintree is now behind me and I can take that knowledge forward to today. I had a difficult start yesterday but ended up doing OK on the day overall in the end. I think I could have done better, but lets see what today brings. If you remember Cheltenham, you will be pleased to know that the Betdaq markets are working well at Aintree also, so bear than in mind today if you are finding the going tough on Betfair. The extra money on Betfair can hold things up and slow down your fill rate, that doesn’t happen on Betdaq. It’s a sort of goldilocks effect, not too little not too much.
I got off to a good start on the Masters and despite only correctly tipping Immelman to open well I managed to pick up some meaty prices on others so it all worked out in the end! I know little about Alvaro Quiros but did managed to back him at 190, his odds are now at 15′s. Thank you Alvaro! A few of the favoured players have already blown up so it’s been a pretty favourable start.
Plenty of racing on today, Masters this evening and the National tomorrow; football can take a back seat for the moment. It’s going to be a tiring weekend.
A grand grand
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 12th, 2010
Well that is one Grand National that will stick in the memory for a while. McCoy finally landed the one race that had eluded him and I tipped it up! There’s a first and it will probably be the last national tip I’ll ever land. As it is, I think I just created a problem for next year, when all those I told this year return for next years winner. Despite warning them, I am sure they will think there is some skill in it!
I traded the race well and was suprised just how much movement there was on it. There was quite a fuss over the SP returned by the industry which was apparantly the worst for 20 years. A lot of this was put down to the movement in prices just before race, apparantly. But I am sure it was still a massive betting race, I’ve seen a number of estimates as to the amount wagered but it’s safe to say it’s in the hundreds of millions. Betfair achieved turnover of £7.2m which was down on last years £7.8m.
I think I got the tactics just about right for the race and pulled in the decent result, though I think I could have done better. There were a few movers on the day, but that’s not surprising given the opening prices of some of them! I couldn’t quite understand why Mom Mome was at such a short price? It did drift nicely in the end.
With all the fun over, we now enter the start of the evening racing and peak season. Once again I failed to do as much as I wanted in the winter, so I think that this year may be the last where I am full on all the time. Hopefully I will hit some of the few remaining milestones I want this year and next year will be the time when I finally take some long overdue time off. It’s nearly been ten years since I first logged into Betfair so I think I am long overdue a personal reward for my efforts!
Till then my attention is firmly fixed on the summer season ahead.
Grand National
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 10th, 2010
It’s that once day a year when everybody, even if they don’t like horse racing, has a little flutter on it.
Before I started my career on betting exchanges the Grand National was the only race I really knew anything about. I was aware of the Derby and the St Leger and some of the big meetings, but it was always the Grand National that caught everybody’s attention, including mine. I distinctly remember several successful bets that my mum placed. It was in the usual manner, i.e., liked the name, the colours or whatever. I think it’s interesting that the most bet on race is nothing more than a lottery. I can’t work out whether that is good or bad for racing, but It’s nice to see racing get some decent coverage though. The BBC also did their bit for point to point racing today I see.
If you would have said to me many years ago that I would defintaly win money on the national each year for years, I would have thought you had gone a bit weird. But many years into my journey on exchanges, I would be really surprised if I couldn’t pull something out of it today. Despite telling people I have no idea who will win, I will no doubt still be pestered for a tip. Not surprising that people can’t correlate those two statements.
FWIW, I will have an EW on the McCoy mount today. Purely a sentimental punt, as it would be nice to see McCoy finally land a win.
Treacle trading
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 7th, 2009
I can’t remember a day when I was so nervous about using the exchanges.
On Saturday, Grand National day, my biggest concern was with the stability of Betfair itself. As the day wore on and we came to the traditional 3pm pinch point, things were slower but bearable for me. Speaking to some other traders and customers though, they didn’t feel comfortable with the delays and quit. I guess the strain on Betfair was so high that delays were inevitable.
We can only speculate why this was the case, whatever the cause, it was very frustrating. Despite this I managed to beat last years total on the race and the day but the week was a little weaker. With Cheltenham and Aintree now out of the way we can focus on all the fun and games we have in front of us for the summer. Having been in the market for so many years it takes an exceptional set of circumstances to hit a record race or week. So all I can do for the summer is work hard and hope these circumstances come together at some point. Here’s hoping.
Get your Grand National sweepstake kit here
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 4th, 2009
Each year this is the one race that everybody has a bit of a punt on. Whether they nip to the bookies or do something via an office sweepstake this is one of the biggest betting events of the year. Bit of a lottery the national, but that doesn’t seem to stop people having a go each year. There are some hints and tips at http://www.grandnationalbettingtips.co.uk/, as well as an office sweepstake kit, so enjoy!
A lot of day to day racing on Betfair isn’t actually showing any growth year on year but some of the big meetings are showing good growth. In 2006 the amount of money matched at the off on the National was £5.2m, 2007 £6.5m and last year £9.3m!! Last year was also notable for the cock up with Betfair SP.
When the race got underway the SP wasn’t returned and then when it was, it did so with ‘Comple or Die’ returning a miserable 4.28, the worst SP from any bookmaker by far, most returned 7/1. Betfair decided to halt the settlement and resettle the market at a more ‘appropiate’ SP. They took the hit themselves in order to do this, we hope all goes smoothly today! My concern with Saturdays is that they don’t seem to be as stable as the weekdays so I hope Betfair’s servers are full on for the National.