Posts Tagged horse racing
Two card Mondays
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing on January 24th, 2012
Not a new card game, but a statement on the Racing so far this year.
By and large the racing is at levels that are normal at this time of year. A bit erratic, low quality, poor betting markets. But the transition from predominantly three cards on a Monday last year to just two this year is making things just that little more difficult this year around. In the Summer I will often take the Monday afternoons off, or do something else. It looks like that period will extend out a bit further now. Some of this is down to the way I participate on the markets, I guess it may be more suitable for others.
Things are looking up this weekend though when we head into the Cheltenham trials, that should liven things up a bit.
I tend to use my time wisely at this time of year, to experiment and to test out new ideas and strategies. It’s lower risk at this time of year and a mistake now doens’t cost you as much, in a comparative sense, to what it would at a busier time of year. Use the extra time you have now to plan ahead and think afresh.
Sometimes, two cards are not as good as three!
Betfair to compensate Leopardstown losers
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair, Horse Racing on January 11th, 2012
Hot off the press, just received this email from Betfair: -
“Dear Peter,
Since the 2.00pm race at Leopardstown on 28 December 2011, we’ve looked in detail at all the circumstances surrounding the technology failure and the anomaly it created. In addition, we provided our Gibraltar regulator, the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner (GGC), with a detailed technical and operational report on the incident and the GGC made a number of recommendations. We have also consulted with customers and taken their feedback on board.
Accordingly, we have reviewed our decision to void all in-running bets matched on the race and, in the interests of fairness, certain categories of voided bets will be compensated by way of ex gratia payments from Betfair. This compensation complies with, and goes beyond, the GGC’s recommendations.
The categories of bets that will be compensated are:
- In-play winning positions in both the ‘win’ and the ‘to be placed’ markets which were achieved before the technology failure; and
- In-play winning positions in the ‘to be placed’ market achieved at any time through to the completion of the race.
Bets matched in the ‘win’ market after the technology failure will remain void.
As your bets were placed in one of the two categories described above, a payment reflecting your winnings had the relevant bets not been voided, will be made to your Betfair account today.
Once again we would like to apologise for the inconvenience caused, and the time taken to reach this outcome. We do thank you for your continued support and remain committed to providing you with the best betting proposition possible.
Regards,
The Betfair Racing team”
Poor show
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing on November 21st, 2011
Fired up the racing cards this morning and watched the tumbleweed drift across the screen. Small fields, uncompetitive racing, not a lot to hang your hat on! There are some trading styles will suit the markets today, but I know it won’t really work that well for me. Especially as it’s a Monday. I had a good weekend, so I’m looking to inject some quality, not quantity, into my life today.
I’ll run some automated stuff and perhaps dip in and out of the markets but generally “it’s a no from me” for today.
I’m doing some work on the footy at the moment in a completely new area, so I could do with some quality time on that. Plenty of other things to sort out ahead of the end of the year also! Good luck if you are active today.
The long day…………..
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 4th, 2011
Today we have an interesting session. UK racing trundles on from afternoon to evening racing, then the Breeders Cup meeting comes on line in the US. As the Breeders cup meeting on the Friday draws to a close, we then morph to Australian racing and the final day at the Melbourne cup meeting. The remarkable Black Caviar runs again tomorrow and is a incredible 1.06 to win it’s group one race. I think that’s untradeable, but I am tempted to watch the race and hype surrounding this horse.
In previous years I’ve had mixed results in the Breeders cup meeting so I’m not sure if I will hang on till late into the night to give it a go. The Saturday is the better day so that should be your focus but you may be able to squeak something out of the Friday as well. Anyhow, if you choose to all available it will be a looooong day. But hopefully a very rewarding one!
In-running confusion
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 10th, 2011
From today new rules come into play for Jockeys and their use of the whip, new rules must also come into play for in-running punters. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
For example, if a jockey has ‘used up’ all his in-running whip chances before the last fence and is desperate to edge out a close rival. In theory, he will be unable to do anything and this may bring what was a previously short price out a fair bit depending on whether the jockey risks a ban or complies with the new guidelines.
I reckon we could see a period where some value is seen by laying short prices in the final stages of races. Of course, people will adjust to this new dynamic, but I’ll be keeping an eye on the things to see how things unfold given the change in rules. It should be an interesting week.
Horses and hay don’t work
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 2nd, 2011
Having exclaimed yesterday that you should make hay while the sun shines it seems that today at least, there is a dearth of hay to be made in the racing markets. Two low quality cards, on a Tuesday and only one race has ten runners or more. Hay doesn’t spring to mind but slurry does. With the sun beating down and the kids on holiday it’s part of afternoon off. I’ll do some work in other areas as well. Racing should really give up on some of these cards and put more prize money into better quality meetings or more runners. The fare on offer this afternoon is just miserable.
I will return the racing this evening as there are three cards and while it doesn’t look great, especially Ffos lloss, I should put in a bit of effort and will be at home then.
Back to earth with a bump
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 23rd, 2011
In line with my objective to take more time off this year, I had a well timed break after after Royal Ascot to head off for a BIG wedding abroad. What a fantastic experience it was and how I wish I could have extended the trip to the post wedding bash on the edge of the mediterranean. Wimbledon was calling though, so I had to make do with what was a fantastic few days instead. We packed so much in and hardly slept each night, so it felt more like weeks than days.
I arrived home to the rain and a rain delayed Wimbledon. I immediately felt like I could have got away with a few more days! I also kept pondering whether working in the UK is all it’s cracked up to be. With modern technology, it’s quite possible to work anywhere I want. I can’t help thinking I should do exactly that.
Originally the wedding was last week but moved to this week. This was lucky, or else I would have missed Royal Ascot. As it was, Royal Ascot went very well in the end. I think I may have done a slightly better job over the week, but not that much better. I managed my best ever day at Ascot, my second best week on Betfair and if you include Betdaq, my best ever, ever, week. I say “if you include” as I am sure that while working on both exchanges was definitely complimentary overall, there were a few races where I just couldn’t focus on both intensely enough and had to sacrifice one or the other.
I was nervous about Ascot having had such a rough time last year, but on just one day this year I beat my entire total for the same week last year. How? I dug down and learnt from last year and changed my approach. I’ve seen so many ‘experts’ vanish without a trace I never taken anything for granted in whatever I do, especially in this market! If you ever want advice from somebody on anything, time in the job is a great qualifier.
Some great memories
Final day of a busy week
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 18th, 2011
Well done to Rory McIlroy who continued to rip through the US Open. Unfortunately this scuppered my trade which needs a competitive field to work. At 1.40ish this leaves only one possible strategy, to back or lay McIlroy. I reckon most people will lay McIlroy given his blow up in the US Masters. It’s a clear fact however, that the error most people make is to take past trends and extrapolate them into the future. Rather than go on gut instinct, I’m going to knock up a spreadsheet this morning and see just what McIlroy has to do to hold onto his six shot lead over 36 holes. I reckon he has learned from his Augusta disaster, he certainly interviewed well last night.
Ascot was tougher yesterday, but I’m well ahead of last year year; I have done well to learn from my experience last year. I don’t think I’ll be able to manage a record but you never know. I’ve aimed for my second best ever and will see where I end up. I managed to pick up some decent results from other races yesterday so that balanced things out. Overall it’s been a good week.
Derby Day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 4th, 2011
An interesting day yesterday. The two Tennis semi finals were good, but not perfect trading fodder. I could have done with Murray coming back into the match a bit. Nadal / Murray had matched bet volume of £30m, the other semi was almost exactly the same amount. The Oaks had matched bet turnover of £2.6m.
Turnover on the Oaks was up on last year, but that can be accounted for by the way the field manifests itself. I will be keeping a keen eye out for the numbers on the Derby today. Given all the press around the Derby it should attract more than average interest today you would think.
Tennis will have to take a back seat to the horses today. I may look at the footy later depending on how the racing is going. I’ve got a really bad summer cold and chest infection to go with it, so I may have an easier day if the afternoon goes well.
Two card monte
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 31st, 2011
We have reached the time of year when Monday and Tuesday racing drops to two cards in the afternoon. It’s an important time of year as this changes the characteristic of these cards to the negative, but also it allows you to do a few other things and skip these cards if needed.
Racing tends to be lower quality on a Monday and Tuesday and that combined with the 15 minute gaps in-between the cards leads to much poorer market conditions overall. I’ll be taking some time out in the summer on these days in line with my objective of getting some more balance into my life this year. We also plan a few new things for Bet Angel users to do during these quieter days, so please keep your eyes open for this announcement.
Bank Holiday Moo-nday
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 30th, 2011
Had to laugh at this great peice of camera work today from Carlisle. It seems it just wasn’t the punters that were interested in the Racing.
York
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 11th, 2011
Looking forward to some quality at York today. It seems racing is lacking a lot of quality this recently, volumes are not great and underlying liquidity poor, so I am keen to get stuck into some decent stuff.
There are a few threads on the forum about York in previous years. We have noticed that patterns often repeat in racing meetings so it will be interesting to see if the same happens again. I navigated yesterday without any errors, but it was generally unexciting, so fingers crossed today. 2/6th’s of way through jinx week!
Good luck at the Dante meeting.
Busy day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 7th, 2011
Looking forward to a busy day today.
Promotion and relegation battles will be settled on the football pitches today, that always throws up opportunities. There is nothing like career death to focus the mind of a highly paid footballer. I’m looking for an outside chance today. I’ll probably spread around my options to even things out. Did you know that Bet Angel can monitor and fire in bets across multiple markets almost simultaneously? This is ideal for football where matches go off all at once. If you want to you can get bets triggered at X minutes before the off or something similar. You can do this using Guardian and the Excel functions.
In Tennis at the Madrid open we have an intriguing match with Nadal at a very short price on his favourite surface to beat Federer. Perhaps there is an opportunity here or at least a clue to the rest of the season?
Plenty of of racing to hand as well but I doubt I will be doing the Kentucky Derby. I have tried and failed to get anything substantive for quite a few years on this. I’ll have another look today but I doubt it will yield much. In previous matched bet turnover has been pretty poor and that’s been the key problem.
Good luck whatever you are doing today!
Royal wedding tip
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 29th, 2011
Fontwell 17:30, Current favourite to shorten even further? Why? The favourite is called ‘Royal Wedding’.
My youngest daughter is fastinated by the spectacle, my son said ‘What wedding?’. Have a great day William and Kate!
Racing needs to wake up
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 25th, 2011
Sunny public holiday, lots of people on extended holidays, spirits are high. But racing is struggling to muster up decent fare again.
Today we have a bumper bank holiday card with 8 meetings and 55 races on hand, excluding the Irish racing. But a casual glance down the UK card shows only Warwick with decent fields and out of the remaining 7 UK meetings only 4 races have ten runners or more. Hmmm….
No racing on Good Friday and only one evening meeting on last Monday. Any guesses why racing is losing out to other sports? Racing has never been amazing on a bank holiday but last year we averaged over 9 runners per race. This year we scrape just over 7 and if you remove Warwick this falls to just over 6, that’s quite a decline. Horses will get prize money today just for turning up, that can’t be any good. Surely it would make sense to do less quantity and more quality?
Probe starts into AW races
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 22nd, 2011
On top of rumours of another scandal about to break, the BHA is investigating unusual betting patterns at all weather courses: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/9465233.stm
Fair weather
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 21st, 2011
Well what a start to spring we have had in the UK! It’s more like the summer at the moment, not that this will impress people in warming climates, but it’s a welcome period after a very cold winter. Having flown away to warmer places in February, it’s been a good start to the year. No seasonal disorder for me this year!
The racing markets have been better in April as well, so the weather on that front is improving. But we have noticed a shift in the longer term weather patterns here. More news when we finish our work in this area. The dawn of evening racing has given me a chance to fill out the P&L with a few more races and I had a better day yesterday, but some of the evening racing is exceptionally weak this year. Turnover is falling on a lot of these races. Some of the day time stuff isn’t great either, for a prime example look at today’s racing. Not a single UK card of 10 runners or more, that is exceptionally poor. So poor actually that I may take today off. With some decent action around the Easter holidays, no racing on Friday, decent weather and kids off school, some time out looks like a 1.01 shot. Enjoy Easter!
One horse race
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 16th, 2011
I was going to write about the FA Cup semi final today as it looks a really tantalising prospect. But the thing that really caught my eye this morning is racing’s continued struggles to adapt to modern commercial realities. The result of which is a race that includes just one runner at the 17:10 at Leicester this afternoon.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/apr/14/one-horse-race-leicester-protest
It’s unfortunate that prize money is under pressure, but in any other commercial regime you would simply incur less cost to try and balance the books. If prize money is too low, then cut out some of the lower quality racing and that will give you capacity to increase the prize money elsewhere. There is plenty of chaff each week and I can’t imagine many people either attending or betting on some of the low quality stuff you see on a Monday on Tuesday afternoon in the summer. So why not cut those out and put that resource elsewhere?
OK there are more complex arguments in play underneath this simple approach, but at least racing is in control of its biggest cost, prize money and hosting meetings. If it wants to develop the sport and raise it’s profile, it is better off tailoring the end product and allocating resources more effectively in my opinion. That’s what any other sport / business would do.
Schwing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 14th, 2011
A really good day for swing traders and a generally good day to boot. Plenty of races, plenty of opportunties whatever your style; but the thing that stood out today were some big swings. Hope you had a good one.
Tiring weekend ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 8th, 2011
First day of Aintree is now behind me and I can take that knowledge forward to today. I had a difficult start yesterday but ended up doing OK on the day overall in the end. I think I could have done better, but lets see what today brings. If you remember Cheltenham, you will be pleased to know that the Betdaq markets are working well at Aintree also, so bear than in mind today if you are finding the going tough on Betfair. The extra money on Betfair can hold things up and slow down your fill rate, that doesn’t happen on Betdaq. It’s a sort of goldilocks effect, not too little not too much.
I got off to a good start on the Masters and despite only correctly tipping Immelman to open well I managed to pick up some meaty prices on others so it all worked out in the end! I know little about Alvaro Quiros but did managed to back him at 190, his odds are now at 15′s. Thank you Alvaro! A few of the favoured players have already blown up so it’s been a pretty favourable start.
Plenty of racing on today, Masters this evening and the National tomorrow; football can take a back seat for the moment. It’s going to be a tiring weekend.
Levy debate starts in parliament
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 20th, 2011
Three hours of debate has just started in Parliament about the future of the Horse Racing levy. Tune into BBC Parliament to hear the MP’s debate: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/tv/bbc_parliament/watchlive
Betfair widen cross matching net
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 15th, 2011
Today will see the launch of cross matching on pre-off horse racing markets. Having studied the markets for a long, long, time, I think I can guess the impact that this will have, but I am open minded. Change will occur though, so keep your eyes out.
In-play cross matching produced a curiosity which we hadn’t thought of, so it may be that pre-off does as well. We have collated data over very long time frames and can see at least one strategy that will suffer because of the change. But we will be actively monitoring the data to see what actually occurs. I’ll report back one we have some decent data under our belt.
I must admit to preferring a freely traded exchange market, warts and all; rather than tweaks, changes, modification and new rules. It’s obvious that Betfair are now likely only to adopt things that benefit them financially, but it would be nice to stick with some firm ground rules. It would always have been nice to see an exchange only vendor out there, but that’s not going to happen now as we are too far down the bookie path on all fronts. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still better than what went before and I’m not being negative here, just philosophical. Even small increments in change can produce quite large long term differences and that’s what we have seen.
Anyhow, I will report back anything interesting on the blog in due course.
This weekend promises to be a really good sporting one, so best of luck whatever you are doing!
Much better
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 14th, 2010
Not only am I feeling better but I must say, what a relief it was today to experiance three race meetings on in the afternoon and some decent field sizes as well! After such a barren spell recently, it was really nice to get really stuck into some markets again.
Despite keeping my hand in the game over the recent barren spell I haven’t been doing as much as normal and it’s suprising how rusty you can get. I’d be suprised if you took a lot of time off, how you could become very rusty indeed.
Anyhow, the card looks good tomorrow so I will going all guns blazing to get something, as the cold weather looks set to return later in the week. It could last for a while according the forecast which is frustrating but it could result in the first true white christmas I have seen.
Finger crossed for the King Geogre VI!!!
Cheltenham didn’t bust
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 10th, 2010
Phew, things worked out OK today. Nothing spectacular for sure, but £560 from 14 markets is a useful return to the fold. Nearly all that came from Cheltenham, so the prospect of a decent day looks on the cards with the twilight and evening racing to come.
Cheltenham or bust!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 10th, 2010
With most of the racing lost to the weather once again it looks like the week will rest on Cheltenham for most racing traders. It’s a high risk strategy as there is no gaurentee that Cheltenham will provide favourable markets, especially with little infront or behind of it. Already Channel Four have asked for the times to be put back so they can cover the meeting, that’s going to impact things as well. Lets hope that when the races get underway properly they provide some good trading fodder. Good luck if you are giving them a go this afternoon.
No end in sight
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 9th, 2010
Just been browsing the Met Office web site for news on when the cold weather will end. Unfortunately, despite a respite at the weekend, it looks like it is still here for a while. The main issue being a high pressure in the Atlantic blocking progress of a westerly airstream.
I was on fire this week last year and could do no wrong, difficult to be on fire this year. On a daily basis there is very little to be done, it’s not worth me doing the odd all weather meeting here or there, so my focus is other sports.
I’ve always enjoyed trading on football and there are some intuitive strategies to be had. I mailed out a list of videos last night. I’ve also returned to Greyhounds during this period to try to develop that a bit further. I suggest you revisit both if you are looking for things to do. For racing traders Greyhounds will feel different, but generally familiar territory.
Don’t forget, you shouldn’t feel guilty taking a break. If you have worked hard during the summer, there is no reason to beat yourself up for taking time off now. You have to bank the good times for moments like these and a little sacrifice of leisure time in the summer can more than be made up in the winter with little impact on your bottom line.
I can’t actually remember such a barren period for the horse racing markets and the Met Office reckon the current period is setting records which date back to 1993. So it’s a period that probably hasn’t been seen in the betting exchange era. After a really good year it looks like I will fall at the final hurdle and have a rubbish December. Knocking 1/12th off your year isn’t an ideal scenario, but there is little that can be done about it. It’s really annoying as I really pushed the boat out this year and it looks like the final numbers will be out of my hands. I don’t think I have the energy to put as much effort into next year and I also have commitments planned out in the next couple of years, so I think I will have to be happy with 2010 for a while.
Still, who knows what is around the corner? Hopefully some sunshine!
I'm not dreaming of a white christmas
Trading the drifting Denman
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 28th, 2010
With a tough week already, it looked like Saturday was going to be a white out as well. Fortunately Newbury survived with a quality card and that gave me a reason to sit behind my desk. I’ve typically done OK at the Hennessy gold cup, so wanted a fair crack at it. When you have been going for a few years you can’t but resist looking at previous years and having that as an unofficial target. Tough when the most of the racing has been cancelled.
The predominant factor in the early market was the drift on Denman.
Denman was asked to carry 2st and with uncertain ground, it was probably this that set of the drift. I don’t follow horse form so I can’t confirm that, but I suspect that the ground could have been reason that the drift set in? With that weight in such a competitive field, I’d also be surprised if the market didn’t think Denman was a little short at his early price. Either way there was a drift.
So how would you trade this? Most people would extrapolate the current trend and lay first, but that would have been a disaster here as Denman went off at an SP of 5.9. It’s typically a common issue that you see in many markets, that people put too much weight on something that has just happened and project it into the future. Often the past has little relationship to the future.
If I toss a coin and it comes up heads ten times in a row I may suspect the coin is biased. But unless I have firm evidence of that, I have to assume the next toss is 50/50. Most people would put undue weight on heads in this scenario. I didn’t choose heads and because of that got the result I wanted from this race. But I bet you there were a lot of people that laid at 7.60!
Cross matching goes live on inplay racing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 23rd, 2010
See Betfair announcement. Looks like they are planning to go live tomorrow on all racing: -
“Following a previous trial earlier this year, we are now running another trial of in-play cross-selection matching (‘cross-matching’) on the win markets at Lingfield Park on Tuesday 23rd November. Cross-matching will only be activated after the markets are turned in-play.
Cross-matching was introduced on most sports during 2008 and has had a significant, positive impact on liquidity. It has meant that a customer’s bet is more likely to be matched than would have been the case without cross-matching. When a bet request cannot be matched by an opposing bet on the same selection, cross-matching will attempt to match the bet request with unmatched liquidity on the remaining selections in the market. Cross-matching incorporates ‘best execution’ meaning that whenever the bet matching algorithm can match a bet request at a better price than requested, it will do so, resulting in the customer making the bet request getting the best possible price.
We don’t expect customers to notice any material difference in the way the win markets operate at Lingfield Park.”
Set back for Betfair Australia
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 18th, 2010
Scott reports on his blog that Racing NSW has won an appeal on what is clearly a discriminatory tactic against Betfair. Unless Betfair can overturn the ruling it’s a game changer in this territory for exchanges.
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2010/11/racing-nsw-wins-racefields-legislation.html
How bizarre was that?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 27th, 2010
17:10 at Haydock and Drill Sergeant gets off to a flyer. Gee thanks, I got stuffed by the start. But he is well in the lead as he goes around the first corner. The suddenly he stops and starts to have a casual stroll around the course. Price rockets out from heavy odds to to 120 and confusion reigns as the field catch him up and somehow pass him without an accident. Mc Coy somehow gets the horse moving again to win. What a race and what a ride by McCoy.
£335 matched at 70's