Posts Tagged horse
Massive winner at Taunton
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing on January 9th, 2012
One of those great racing moments today when ‘Lights of Broadway’ romped home at Taunton at odds of 810-1000 depending on when you backed it. It SP’d at 810!! Second and third placed horses came in at big odds too meaning it was a monster forecast, but I can’t imagine anybody got it?
Looking for the luck of the Irish
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 28th, 2011
Their economy may been in the dumps, but then that’s no shock in the western world economies; but the racing is top notch this week at Leopardstown.
The holiday racing cards are packed with races which can cause some problems at times, but outside of that the feature races where-ever they are, are often worth a look.
Today at Leopardstown it’s the Lexus chase and then tomorrow, the Festival hurdle. If you are around, don’t rule out anything on the card in this busy period. But have a go at some of the features, even if they are not in the UK. They can work quite well. That said the Lexus chase today looks a little tricky.
Full blown all out chaos
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing on December 26th, 2011
There you go, that’s my prediction for today’s racing markets.
A total of twelve racing cards are unleashed on the markets today and that means that it will be clash city. No sooner has one race started than another starts, while another one will complete. It’s going to be chaotic. There are a total of 78 races on the card, but 34 have scheduled off times the same as another race. As if that’s not enough you can throw in a bundle of decent soccer fixtures as well.
It’s a stark contrast to last year when there was no racing on at all and hardly any sport. But look at the upside, I finally managed to get a boxing day to enjoy for once! Sometimes though, the best opportunity occur at the most in-opportune moments.
I’ll be here today giving the markets a good bash and hopefully amid the choas I can pick out some quality opportunities. Good luck if you are giving it a go!
- With none of the white stuff due this year. It’s going to be busy!
Back to open
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel, Betfair, Horse Racing on December 20th, 2011
It looks like we are going to have some fun and games in the market today. I’d recommend adopting a ‘back to open’ trading policy!
For more information read up on this thread: -
http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=4934&start=240
Winding down..
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair on December 19th, 2011
We are well on the run in now for the Xmas break now and this are going to get a little quiter as the week rolls on. Quieter apart from at home because the kids are off school now! Racing comes to a close on Thursday and there is no racing on the Friday or Saturday.
Plenty of decent racing on the Saturday just gone and it proved a good days trading. Best result of a good bunch came from the last race at Ascot. I did well on both exchanges on Saturday but couldn’t beat this total on Betdaq, but obviously could after commission!
Bits and bobs around this week but my enthusiasm for it isn’t high, so I’ll be working on new things and cherry picking some opportunities. I can’t see the markets being that favourable this week, but you never know.
If you are not active this week or busy Christmas shopping, why not use some of the new automation functions to trade automatically. Only a lack of imagination can separate you now from doing or learning something new about the markets, with this recent addition to Bet Angel. Set it up at the start of the day, in practice mode if necessary, come back and read your automatically exported P&L report at the end of the day. Tweak strategy, then repeat. Great fun.
Cross country mayhem
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing on December 9th, 2011
I don’t do much big in-running trading but whenever there is a XC race on I’ll pay extra attention.
Today at Cheltenham 7 of 10 runners took the wrong course (again) and radically changed the profile of the race in the dying moments. Whenever you see a cross country race on the card, always take an interest.
The winner came in at 150 after not looking in contention for most of the race. The key tactic, take the right course. Always have a preference for experienced jockeys in these races!
The fifth, five years on
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair, Horse Racing on November 26th, 2011
It’s the fighting fifth at Newcastle today. It’s often a small field and can be a bit tricky, but it usually contains some opportunities. Only five runners and Binocular is almost evens, that’s a tricky set up.
It’s also the Hennessy Gold Cup. I have fond memories of this race as five years ago today I traded it live at the IX Investor show for Betfair. Seeing a betting company at an investor show was a shock for many people and we had trouble getting people to come near the stand; so I just rolled up my sleeves and traded live for everybody. A slightly unorthodox set up, but it worked. As the profits flowed in it inevitably brought people to the stand to try and understand what market I could possibly be trading on Saturday and making money. If I remember correctly I bagged £250 on the Gold Cup in about ten minutes.
Last year I did even better, which was miraculous if you remember the difficulties we had with the weather. Last year the weather had just started to really go downhill and on the Saturday and we had a very limited card on display. Newcastle wasn’t on at all and the fighting fifth ended up at Newbury. From that point onwards the weather got colder, and colder, and colder and colder. The coldest winter for 30 years! This year is balmy by comparison, lets hope the opportunities are too!
Trying to explain that this isn't a stock chart
Bet Angel on TV
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 7th, 2011
OK, not as glamorous as it seems, we have just sponsored a few races at Southwell today. I’m not available to attend the event but one of my guys will be there. I’ve offered him a bonus if he streaks in front of the winning post!
Never going to be great quality conditions on a Monday, but we hope we have done our bit for racing today.
R&R
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 2nd, 2011
The Melbourne cup went pretty well and I’m looking forward to finishing off the whole carnival in style if I can. I’ve put a few other things on the back burner this week to focus on the meeting. I’m feeling too old to burn the candle at both ends and get away with it! It was interesting to note that matched bet turnover on the Melbourne cup was lower this year than last. It reached about £3.6m vs. £4.4m last year, therefore my turnover was lower as a result. I had expected turnover to be up.
I’m skipping the Champions league tonight so I can get some rest and relaxation, though I am intrigued by the Villareal vs Man City match this evening. I think most of the other matches can be read reasonably well, but in this one I’m looking for clues City can translate their UK success into a credible European campaign. They certainly have the players to do it, but don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders at the moment in europe. This match will be an interesting test.
Later this morning UK time I’ll be returning to Flemington for more Melbourne action. Today isn’t the best day of racing so it’s a bit ‘hardcore’ to suffer the effort required to do today. So if you didn’t get on with the big race, I wouldn’t recommend getting up early to do today. It’s usually been pretty weak in the past. However, I’m pretty confident I can earn more on this than the football, so that’s what I will be focusing on today.
My Melbourne
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 31st, 2011
Me and the Melbourne cup go back a few years now. Many moons ago I got interested in the ‘race that stops a nation’ and learned that it really did stop the nation, they have a national holiday today.
So, intrigued, I got up at 4am one dark winter Tuesday to see what all the fuss was about. Nothing really happened apart from a lack of sleep and I returned to bed disappointed. Back then I had converted have the garage in my old house into an office that I could work from. So I slept on the floor that night so I wouldn’t disturb the rest of the family. The following year I tried again and did a bit better, but not much. My wife thought I was mad getting up at 4am to watch a bit of racing.
From year three however things started to move in the right direction and I built year on year on my knowledge and understanding. So this year I am looking forward to giving it another go. I have taken up the kind offer of a Bet Angel user to shift time zones to give myself the chance to participate in a more reasonable frame of mind and in more comfortable surroundings than a garage floor.
Good luck if you are giving a go tonight.
Melbourne cup carnival is here
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 28th, 2011
The race that stops a nation isn’t too far away now, but the action really kicks of in Flemington today / tomorrow, depending on where you are in the world.
We have a number of very high profile, rich prize money racing in Melbourne this Saturday, Tuesday, Thursday and next Saturday. It should prove to be a real feast of high quality racing.
From a European perspective there is the issue that most of this takes place in the dead of night. However, if you want to look at and learn from this why not do some automated stuff overnight? Whether it is just to collect data or test an actual theory there is plenty of scope to get Bet Angel to do things that you can’t.
I’m really looking forward to the carnival this year. About six years ago, I think, I tried to do something on it and failed but have got better over the years at pulling something out from this meeting. Good luck if you want to give it a try.
Short priced favourites
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 22nd, 2011
I have a tendency to look to lay short priced favourites but this weekend there are two that appear nailed on to win. First up this morning was Black Caviar, 14 wins out of 14 and going for the 15th at just 1.05. A bloodless victory saw her romp home and send her forward to Flemington next where she is likely to encounter more opposition. I think this is the shortest price I have ever seen a horse go off in a group race.
Next up will be New Zealand in the Rugby world up final. I’ve really enjoy the Rugby this year and learnt a lot from it. I’ve never traded it much before and the world cup was an opportunity to experiment and learn. The key element for me was that points are constructed in a slower manner than other sports and that makes it interesting.
The final looks very similar to the last final in 1997 between South Africa and England. France have stumbled to the final in unconvincing fashion and New Zealand should be able to dispatch them easily. Though it’s worth nothing that only two previous hosts have won the competition and England only lost 15-6 in 2007. It’s still hard to see beyond New Zealand at 1.13 however, the tournament is theirs to lose. Betdaq are offering commission back if New Zealand win by 15 points or more. Worth a look.
Good start to a good day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 15th, 2011
Got up early this morning to give the Caulfield cup a bash and got it just right for a really good result.
We have a ton of really good racing at Ascot today so that should produce some really good potential as well. I am sure everybody will be keen to see Frankel run again and at such short odds you would expect the win to be a formality.
Such short odds in such a big race will mean the market is stuffed full of money on both sides of the book. While this sounds great it can be a bit of a mare as the fill rate will drop and this will increase the risk you are taking in the market. In line with my recent policy I will be using both Betfair and Betdaq today. This is because the fill rate on this race will most likely be higher on Betdaq. I reckon I could get a really good result on this race on Betdaq so I will be putting more funds into my account to give it a really good bash. It’s worth getting Betdaq Angel fired up and ready to go on this race if you find yourself stuck behind £50k on Betfair.
Domestic football is back into the fold today and the Rugby world cup semi finals will also add to the interest today. It’s going to be a busy day!
Whipping up a storm
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 14th, 2011
Only racing can conspire to turn something that was supposed to be a PR win into a PR loss.
Richard Hughes dramatic news last night merely highlights and drives forward what racing will be talking about this weekend. Forgot the wonderful racing at Ascot on Saturday or the fact that Cheltenham is on the cards today. Everybody will be talking about the whip.
Steve at Mull it Over, sort of sums up the mood in racing at the moment. He also seems to confirm what I mentioned on Monday in that form will be really jumbled up in the short term while these changes work their way through.
I’m not well educated enough on the use of the whip to give you a firm judgement. But I can see why it is used in racing, and also what racing is trying to address. I do wonder whether education is a key component missing from racing? I didn’t really have much of a clue about racing when I first started to get involved but slowly learnt the ropes. For a complete novice it must be daunting.
Maybe good promotion and education, maybe through shared ownership, would help racing’s cause? From an outside viewpoint, at the moment there is too much of a gap between the core of the sport, the authorities that run it and new people getting interested in it. That has to change for racing to move forward.
In-running confusion
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 10th, 2011
From today new rules come into play for Jockeys and their use of the whip, new rules must also come into play for in-running punters. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
For example, if a jockey has ‘used up’ all his in-running whip chances before the last fence and is desperate to edge out a close rival. In theory, he will be unable to do anything and this may bring what was a previously short price out a fair bit depending on whether the jockey risks a ban or complies with the new guidelines.
I reckon we could see a period where some value is seen by laying short prices in the final stages of races. Of course, people will adjust to this new dynamic, but I’ll be keeping an eye on the things to see how things unfold given the change in rules. It should be an interesting week.
14 out of 14!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 8th, 2011
Black Caviar was out again at Caulfied this morning and made it 14 starts and 14 wins. Impressive stuff, as was the amount of money backing this undefeated horse. I slept on the sofa for the first part of the night so I could get up in the early hours to have a look at the race. Wouldn’t it be great to see a match up with Frankel? What a race that would be!
Traders of the De l’arc
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 2nd, 2011
Once a year I will tuck into French racing like a connoisseur drinks French wine, with a sense of appreciation but with the gusto of a true enthusiast.
I don’t tend to trade on Sunday’s or on French racing, but the richest race in Europe always draws my attention as it and the companion races are nearly always a great opportunity. It has to be said that most of the other stuff on today is not the greatest quality. So I’m fixing up some new bikes I bought for the kids and paying for them, and then some, by trading in between sorting them out. Good luck if you are trading today. Early races have shown market conditions to be like the weather, surprisingly good.
Laytown
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 8th, 2011
Sounds like a small town where people favour only one side of the book. But its actually a racecourse in Ireland.
This race course captivates me each year. Circumstances worked against me again this year, but I will definately pay it a visit next year. Besides, I have more reason to visit Ireland nowadays!
http://www.meath.ie/Tourism/SportsandActivities/Horseracing/LaytownRaces/
Don’t come back till St Leger day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 7th, 2011
The oldest classic horse race in the world is almost upon us again and while it marks the closing of the flat turf season, tradition dictates that it also marks an upturn in financial markets if folklore is to be believed.
“Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger day”
There is a general ‘theory’ that during the summer stocks languish and only when everybody is back to their desk does the market perk up. Here is one link, from many, that discusses this: -
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing/article.html?in_article_id=484982&in_page_id=166
I’ve never managed to pull anything spectacular out of the St Leger for some reason, but that won’t stop me having a good go this week.
New in-running tool
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 1st, 2011
Something has been annoying me for ages and that is how I’ll often sit between races waiting for the next one to start. It’s a lot of wasted time, so I recently decided it was time to do something about it. The result is a new tool for Bet Angel users.
The concept is a clickable user interface that shows you the progress of a race as it happens. Its the first ever product to allow you to click on a graph to place a bet. To back or lay you simply point in front or behind of the horse and left or right click to back or lay. As the race progresses, the horses move towards the finish line giving you a visual view of what is happening in the market and a good representation of what the horse and everybody following it is doing. After watching a few races you can quickly pick up on some useful patterns that emerge in-running. This new tool is available for use on the latest beta version of Bet Angel which you can now download. Enjoy!
You can view a video describing the tool here: -
http://www.betangel.tv/video/horse-racing/212-inplay
York Ebor meeting
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 17th, 2011
Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week. I’m going to give Betdaq a good go this week at York as liquidity is rising and I suspect I can get something decent out of some of these races. I’m keen to get some decent practice in. If you look at my Ebor result from last year I only need to get just over £100 on Betdaq to match the Betfair total after charges. I reckon I can easily achieve that, I should be able to get more. As I am a net liquidity provider to the markets, I still find it odd that I am incentivised to move my business in this manner. It’s all a bit strange.
Anyhow, Good luck with the Ebor meeting this week.
Gooder Goodwood
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 29th, 2011
My old English tutor would have a heart attack with that title!
Had my best day of the week yesterday and should be headed for a great festival overall. The day didn’t start very well with a delayed start and then I got my bottom spanked at Nottingham when I failed to address an alarming drift on the horse I was trading. But from there in things just got better and better. I managed to pull in some really good results across the card on the day, not just at Goodwood. I’m not setting expectations for a repeat today but the card does look generally OK.
After collecting a ton of data on the way Betdaq markets manifest themselves, I had an epiphany last Saturday and I have managed to take that thought forward this week for a generally good performance all round. Previously I had only really used Betdaq at the bigger meetings but I am starting to pull out some decent results whatever the grade of race now. If you look at the last race of the day yesterday at Goodwood it wasn’t the best race by far, but I still got a reasonable result on that. The growing liquidity on Betdaq is helping me a lot. Should be a good week.
A bit of a ouch moment!
Not so Good-wood
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 27th, 2011
A fairly lacklustre day yesterday started me off on the five day festival at Goodwood. I didn’t pull anything amazing out of the hat, but ended on a decent amount for the day. I think it ‘felt’ lacklustre because I had such a good start last year. On the same day last year I managed a clean sweep of the entire card, I didn’t manage that this year.
Today promises to be very interesting. The feature race stands out a mile with Frankel and Canford Cliffs going head to head in what promises to be an intriguing race. If you look at Canford Cliffs notes you can see he is often held up before been presented late on. Frankel’s performances have been a mixed bag so far, but has often led.
Just four runners doesn’t make for a great trading race but the betting interest and volume will be high so this should present some opportunties.
BTW, while looking for an image I came up with some interesting ones. If you want a laugh, just try googling ‘frankel’.
Repeating patterns
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 14th, 2011
Sometimes the markets surprise me, but more often than not they don’t. After 11 years of doing this, even the surprises don’t seem surprising any more. But yesterday I got a surprise.
Yesterday, last year, I traded a race at Catterick and got a really cracking result from it. A year later at the same course, on the same day and on the exact same race I got the same result. You would think it impossible that such a thing could happen, but it did! This is not the first time this has happened though and history does seems to repeat with alarming regularity. Now all I need to do is to understand why.
That may take a while.
Feast or farce
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2011
Not difficult to choose what to do this afternoon. Yes there was some racing on but when end up with 15 minute gaps and one race at Pontefract had just two runners, though curiously this was the best race of the day for me.
Over at Wimbledon there were quite a few decent matches and opportunties so it was this that held the main interest for me today. As a point of interest, if you want evidence that people are using models like Tennis Trader, have a look at the following implied probability graph. The odds map perfectly onto the the points won or lost on serve, you can clearly see the ranges.
There are 351 tick increments on Betfair, an average of 36.7 games at a Wimbledon match and hundreds of points in a match. If you can pinpoint where the odds should without an aid given those variables, you are a better man than I!
Royal Ascot / Open Golf Thursday
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf, Horse Racing on June 17th, 2011
Another good day in the bag for Royal Ascot, but I left it late today. I didn’t get a real blockbuster race till near the end of the card. I had to work much harder than yesterday and I took my foot of Betdaq, as working harder meant I couldn’t keep focus on two exchanges effectively. I did broaden my activity out on Betdaq though to other races and they worked well. So after Ascot I’m going to continue my work there.
I did have a hiccup mid afternoon when my Internet connection went down. Quick as a flash I went to my back up connection and continued, but I never found out why it was only my main machine that failed. A quick reboot between races brought it back to life.
Overall, The weather made the markets a bit jumpy and there were some real moves around. The biggest was when the trainer of a horse came on and said his horse was unlikely to win because of the ground. See the graph below for what happened next. The weather has been incredibly poor this week and heavy rain has set in again this morning. So I think we could be in for another tricky day today unfortunately.
I got off to a great start on the US open golf, so it looks like it is going to be a very good week indeed. Here is a list of the top ten +ve movers overnight.
Rory McIlroy – 23 to 3.8
Charl Schwartzel – 80 to 14.5
Sergio Garcia – 90 to 25
Y. E. Yang – 170 to 24
Graeme McDowell – 70 to 28
Bubba Watson – 55 to 38
Louis Oosthuizen – 250 to 32
Brandt Snedeker – 70 to 38
Jason Day – 46 to 36
Stewart Cink – 100 to 50
For a full list of movers, visit the forum.
Royal Ascot – Day two
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 16th, 2011
That went well! I have to give myself a 10/10 for yesterday. After a quiet start with a few errors in my P&L I slowly got into stride and managed to really hit top speed by the end of the day. In the end I managed to achieve my best ever daily result at Ascot which was incredibly satisfying. I can’t pretend today will be a repeat performance, but I will try hard.
It’s difficult to pick any highlights out of the day as it all went pretty well. I didn’t do that great on the Prince of Wales stakes but managed to turn it around and still get something from the race, so that felt like a win. The reason I just did worse than I should have, was because I took a little too much risk on board. But that’s no bad thing, as it shows I was on form if I pushed it too hard. Today I touched the edge of the market.
We are just south of Ascot and the weather here this morning is just dreadful. That is bound to have an impact on the racing today. Hopefully things will cheer up a bit this afternoon.
Ascot – Day one summary
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 15th, 2011
I thought that went quite well. I struggled last year but this year was ok and I could have done better if I was a bit more aggressive. In hindsight I was too passive yesterday, didn’t take on board enough risk. So I’ll give myself an 8/10 as it was good, but I could have done better.
Frankel made a bit of a mess of the feature race of the day and the market on Frankel was so strong that it soaked up two £200k+ bets with hardly a blip. I told some delegates at during the morning workshop today what would happen to the price of Frankel in the run up to the race and I am glad to say I was spot on. That made it a good trade.
As I predicted Betdaq markets were showing a lot of strength yesterday and therefore I now forecast this for the rest of the meeting. There were some races that I did better on one or the other exchange, but the fact that both are very tradable is a huge bonus. You also have to lop 20% off the Betfair result, so the incentive to trade on Betdaq is high. I’m beginning to widen my activity to other markets as well, now that I have a feel for the big races. Not without its difficulty and I am not 100% focused on Betdaq at all times, but the effort is proving worthwhile.
This morning I had to go out to buy a new suit for a wedding. But this evening I’ll analyse some of the data from the first couple of days and give you an insight into how the market is shaping up.
Royal Ascot day one
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 14th, 2011
An intriguing day one at Ascot. After all, what colour hat will the Queen be wearing. LOL!
I’ll be all guns on the first day to work out what feel the market brings this year. I’ve paid a lot of attention to Ascot over the years and each year we see the market shift subtly in one direction or the other. I didn’t do a very good job of it last year, comparatively speaking, so I’ll want to put in a better performance this year. I’ll be gathering lots of data to analyse and offer some opinion as we move through the week.
I don’t fancy the first race today at all, but the remaining races seem to throw up some clear opportunities; I’m looking forward to getting stuck into those. The St’James palace stakes already has £600k matched on it at 8am this morning, mainly thanks to the participation of Frankel. Can’t wait to see how Frankel runs.
If you reflect on comments made about previous big meetings on the blog. I suggest you fund your Betdaq account and start using it on Ascot this week. I strongly suspect Ascot will generate very favourable markets on Betdaq. Betdaq Angel is free to use, so download a copy ready to unleash your fury on the markets!
I wish you the very best of luck at Ascot this week.