Posts Tagged injury
Big over-reaction
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on January 5th, 2012
Sometimes I just want to roll Gael Monfils up in a bundle and kiss him.
One of my biggest ever wins came on a match with Monfils in it. He overstretched himself and called for the trainer. I had just backed his opponent and his priced rocketed in and netted me a very lucky big profit, so I greened up. After a brief spell with the trainer Monfils carried on and looked like he had never been trouble and went on to win the match.
It was at this point that I learnt Monfils tended to be a bit elaborate in his play, often plays in a way that could lead to potential injury and tends to make a meal of it. That paid off last night.
I was watching the Monfils vs Becker match at the Qatar open. Monfils collapsed on the ground and everybody laid. I rewound the sky+ put it in slow motion and you can see all he did was whack himself on the knee as he tried to play the shot. Quickly backed him at what ever price I could get and laid it off a few minutes later. He went on to win anyway.
You can see the massive over reaction on the graph. A decent, low risk trade.
Murray Worry
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 28th, 2011
The sign of a true champion is the ability to overcome the impossible. While I’m not suggesting that Murray will win the title at Roland Garros, he certainly showed today that he’s got the guts. After turning over his ankle during the match, his price shot out after people started fearing a retirement. He had already traded at 1.01 adding to the pressure to push the price out.
Murray had his ankle strapped, Dug down deep and got on to close out the match well. An excellent job when he was obviously struggling. This graph is a good illustration of the difficulty of using Betfair grafts to accurately plot trends. On the far left as the price approaches 1.01. This is halfway through the match, the second half of the match as the remaining 90% of the graph!
Here’s a tip: -
If you load matches of interest into Guardian, Bet Angel will store and plot information for each of these matches in real-time. You can then use the advanced charting to look at an accurate graph of historic data. You can do this on any sport.
Looking forward to the second week of Tennis in France.
Just goes to show
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 5th, 2010
It aint over till the fat lady sings as they say. Trading the Murray v Wawrinka match well this evening and managed to lay some off some of the profit on Murray at very short odds, looking for a Wawrinka fight back. I got one and Murray really let his head drop when broken twice in the third set. He really looked on his way out of the third set and possibly the match. Murray called on the trainer during the next break.
With Wawrinka dominant, Murray’s odds shot out from an almost certain win to 2.70′s. Wawrinka had a tricky moment and called a medical time out, cue a dramatic change in odds!
