Posts Tagged inter milan

Champions league final

Nothing unusual in that this match has been priced for a low scoring, tight contest. Inter are being priced for a slight edge and I think the market is right. Unless Bayern get their tactics very right I think Inter are set up well to win.

Curiously the match is exhibiting exactly the same characteristics as the Portsmouth vs AC Milan match in 2008. A similar match recently was Sporting Lisbon vs Porto. My stats are showing slightly more goals than are being priced into the market but as this is a neutral ground and an important final I think I would need to shave those down anyhow.

Simply due to the volume, I will definately have an interest in this match as there are plenty of things that should work. But I’ll be focusing on lack of goals to generate some profit.

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Barcelona vs. Inter Milan

I have to admit to being underwhelmed by the champions league this year. There haven’t been many superb matches, certainly not from a trading perspective. Last night wasn’t much different when Bayern Munich demolished Lyon without so much as a last desperate effort from the side that was about to go out. It’s all been a bit disappointing as I love strong incentives to win and things like late goals, that’s where the really big results come from.

The market this evening looks interesting as it is pricing in a match with more than three goals, of which at least two will be in Barcelona’s favour. Of course Barcelona needs to overturn a 3-1 deficit from the first leg, so scoring a two nil win would do the trick, but Inter Milan simply have to defend when the match kicks off. They can afford to sit back and play deep and will only need to rethink their strategy if Barcelona get an early goal. I don’t think Jose will attempt to be adventurous in this case and I think the market may be pricing in too many goals? If Barcelona get an early goal, the match will liven up considerably, till then, I don’t think the opposing team have any incentive to press forward.

I’ll be watching with interest, but it’s the Europe league matches tomorrow that are my prime target this week.

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