Posts Tagged italian
I predict another draw
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 3rd, 2011
A cursory glance at the Italian football today reveals two matches were the matched bet volume is 5-6 times greater than normal and draw odds much shorter than expected. I have posted the two matches in question on the forum. I backed Brescia to win against Bologna on Saturday after picking up on activity on that match. Brescia were 2-0 up inside ten minutes, so I traded out at very short odds.
It prompted me to see what happened to the other matches like these in the past and I have detailed the results that I noted. There are probably many more, but these are just the ones were I collected quality information on. I’ll do some more work on this in time to see what the long term prognosis is: -
24/05/2009 Draw odds 1.79 – Chievo 0 – 0 Bologna
20/03/2010 Draw odds 1.88 – Chievo 1 – 1 Catania
11/04/2010 Draw odds 1.62 – Bologna 2 – 3 Lazio
02/05/2010 Draw odds 1.96 – Cagliari 2 – 2 Udinese
09/05/2010 Draw odds 1.39 – Bologna 1 – 1 Catania
20/12/2011 Draw odds 1.42 – Albinoleffe 3 – 3 Piacenza
I predict a draw
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 26th, 2011
Hold on, haven’t I posted that before? Has this happened before? Err… yes at the end of each Italian football season. I’m wise to it now!
Part of my preparation for the weekends football fixtures, I suck in all the matches via Bet Angel into a spreadsheet and a couple of pre-set formula’s point out areas of interest. Last night it threw up Padova vs Atalanta as ‘odd’. You can see why on the following graph. The volume of matched bets is way above any other match on the same day and 97% of the volume is, unusually, on the draw. I wonder what the result of this match will be? Anybodies guess!
I predict a draw (Part 2)
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 20th, 2010
Second part of what will probably be a three part post.
The draw is now trading at a remarkable 1.42 and £2.85m of £3m on the match is on the draw! To put that into perspective only 10% of the money on the Man City vs Everton match is on the draw, a more rational number.
Question now is what sort of a draw will it be. 1-1 is usually the favoured result and that is being backed in as well. I think I may have a play on this match.
I predict a draw (Part 1)
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 20th, 2010
The draw is a “underactive” area of the match odds market. Out of the three outcomes availble, the draw tends to get proportionatly little attention and volume out of the three.
So, a bit of a surprise to see the draw accounting for 96% of the volume in the match. Not only that but even more surprising to see the odds backed in from 3.00 to 1.30, before the off. The italian football market is a curious one isn’t it?
Would you back the draw at 1.30?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 8th, 2010
If a football match was near the end, perhaps ten or fifteen minutes or so, 1.28 may represent value. But before the match has started, no way! Mathematically speaking it’s highly improbable for the draw to be priced at 80% certainty in a fair match. However these strange odds seem to occur often at the end of the Italian football season. Not all of them play out as the odds intend but it’s certainly very strange to keep seeing such massive anomalies. We have another one for Sunday, make of it what you will.
Italian end of season matches
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 13th, 2010
Since my first posting some time ago there have been plenty more Italian matches with strange prices. However, not all have ended up with the predicted result. There appears to be a process of reversion to mean going on! I was lucky on this one, as rather than backing the draw I opted to back Lazio, who went on to win. Because of the propensity for these matches to be unpredictable I wonder whether an element of this unusual pricing is the madness of crowds and / or the net effect of lots of arbing with naive bookmakers. Having done some research these things appear to be more common place in Italian football than I suspected. Whatever, it’s a curious phenomena but one that is proving profitable if you are aware of where that all important next goal is likely to come from.
Even odder
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 22nd, 2010
Thanks for all the people that emailed in about the Chievo vs Catania match. Many different views and opinions on this match. Also thanks to my Italian friends that got in contact to talk about this particular game.
No surprise that the match ended up 1-1 as strongly predicted by the market. 95% of all the money on the match was traded on the draw which is pretty much unheard of in a soccer match. There is vigorous discussion on the forum about this match so I’m not going to try and repeat or summarise that here. Just glad I didn’t lay the draw on this one!
