Posts Tagged league
R&R
Posted by Peter Webb in Australian, Football / Soccer, Horse Racing on November 2nd, 2011
The Melbourne cup went pretty well and I’m looking forward to finishing off the whole carnival in style if I can. I’ve put a few other things on the back burner this week to focus on the meeting. I’m feeling too old to burn the candle at both ends and get away with it! It was interesting to note that matched bet turnover on the Melbourne cup was lower this year than last. It reached about £3.6m vs. £4.4m last year, therefore my turnover was lower as a result. I had expected turnover to be up.
I’m skipping the Champions league tonight so I can get some rest and relaxation, though I am intrigued by the Villareal vs Man City match this evening. I think most of the other matches can be read reasonably well, but in this one I’m looking for clues City can translate their UK success into a credible European campaign. They certainly have the players to do it, but don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders at the moment in europe. This match will be an interesting test.
Later this morning UK time I’ll be returning to Flemington for more Melbourne action. Today isn’t the best day of racing so it’s a bit ‘hardcore’ to suffer the effort required to do today. So if you didn’t get on with the big race, I wouldn’t recommend getting up early to do today. It’s usually been pretty weak in the past. However, I’m pretty confident I can earn more on this than the football, so that’s what I will be focusing on today.
Sack your manager now!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 1st, 2011
Early this week I was listening to the interview with Nottingham Forest manager Steve McClaren after watching his team get thumped 5-1. It was a depressing experience. Forest started the season at a good price for promotion but have since looked like a team trying to avoid relegation. McClaren seemed clueless to give a clear example of how he will turn their fortunes around. Should Forest sack him?
Another area of research I have done in the past is based around the new manager effect. I’ve researched not only what happens but why. Here is the what.
On the sample I looked at, sacking a manager generally lifted league positions on average by 1.17 places in a 20-24 field league. So there you go, sack your manager now! But more interesting was some of the detail in the averages.
If your club is right at the bottom or top of the league, then a sacking doesn’t seem to have as much effect as elsewhere on the league table. But the most predominant factor appeared to be the ‘popularity’ of the manager. If you sack a ‘popular’ manager, your form will decline no matter who you bring in. If you sack an ‘unpopular’ manager then your form improves whoever you bring in. Clubs that made a ‘popular’ appointment gained an average of six league places and those that didn’t fell on average. That inevitably lead me to ask why you see this effect, so I worked on this with a psychologist. But that’s another story.
Of course, that doesn’t directly answer the question of whether or not McClaren is popular or unpopular, but if it’s the latter and he is sacked start backing Forest.
Farcelona
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 28th, 2011
That was the word on the street after the sending off last night. It seems a common trait to dislike success, but you can’t escape the fact that Barcelona have proved on many occasions that they are by far the best team in the tournament and did so again last night. It’s just such a shame they have often degraded their performances with gamesmanship.
It’s also a shame that the first leg was a duplicate of the other semi final, as they both are now set up for uncompetitive second legs. That will reduce the ability to get a decent trade away on either. It’s unfortunate that the early rounds threw up so much opportunity, but the later rounds have done little. I lost money last night but much less than I made on the other semi final. You can’t win them all!
Still, here’s looking forward to a Man Utd vs Barcelona final. I think this would be intriguing as, while it is at a neutral venue, Man Utd will practically be at home I suspect. It will be interesting to see how the stats discount this into a price for the final. That’s what I am keeping my eye on now.
Sending off offence?
Don’t pay till May
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 4th, 2010
It was only when my favourite football club got relegated that I started playing around in the relegation and promotion markets. Since then it has become a regular stamping ground for me during the season, especially at the start or end. People seem to have this wonderful propensity to put too much emphasis on recent results or events. Either that or they carry hopes that are just clearly out of whack with reality.
So far this year I have made some good trades on these markets including Liverpool, Portsmouth, Southampton and Blackpool. I’ve got Bolton wrong but got several others right, which more than covers the others. Plenty more trades to follow, I am sure.
With such dominant teams at in the top division it makes sense to look for lays in winners markets. This tends to work in your favour over time. Also, it’s very rare to get a team that completely dominates over a season so early leaders are often a good lay at the right price. In relegation markets, you often see newly promoted teams perform well initially before falling away in the second half of the season. Next season they will often a good price for relegation. Look for early performers to fade and skirt with relegation at some point. A sense of panic can ensue in the market with a bad run.
Over the last six seasons I’ve managed to predict who will finish the bottom team each year and I also try and predict all 20 finishing places, a pretty tough ask. However I have acheived a correlation of around 80% using some simple metrics. Currently those metrics tell me that West Ham shouldn’t finish bottom as there are better candidates for this slot. Also it tells me Blackpool are good value for relegation at their current price. They may escape but the market is pricing in too much at the moment. If you are not confident with nailing you colours to one selection, trying backing or laying multiple selections using the dutching or bookmaking tools in Bet Angel. That works well and offers less risk.
The only issue with these markets is they won’t be settled till next year. But that shouldn’t stop you from taking part in them as you will get a nice bonus in your account come May next year.
After a sublime start , Chelsea are currently undergoing a reality check