Posts Tagged liverpool
Europa success for Liverpool?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 10th, 2011
I must admit to being sceptical when ‘King Kenny’ was appointed as Liverpool manager. I felt that after many years out it would be difficult to adjust to the modern game. However, Dalgleish has had a mercurial affect on Liverpool’s confidence and at the top level of a sport that is critical. People perform with similar skill at the highest levels and confidence is a BIG factor.
Last Sunday’s defeat of Man Utd will have given them a real boost and that doesn’t seem to be priced into this evenings match against Braga or the overall winner of the Europe league. I feel Liverpool are back in that state of mind where you can’t write them off, or discount anything. It Kuyt a new rush type character? On flip side I don’t know Braga well enough to give you confidence that I can balance out Liverpool’s new found optimism against Braga’s metrics. It’s also important to note that it looks like Gerrard is out this evening.
I’ll watch the match though to have another look if Liverpool are really contenders for the trophy. The match is priced for a 1-1 draw with a slight advantage to Liverpool.
Late goals expected in FA Cup
Manchester United and Liverpool commence battle on Sunday afternoon in the tie of the FA Cup third round. If the match earlier in the season is anything to go by this could well be a Cup classic. From a pure betting standpoint Liverpool’s away form this season gives plenty of reason to back a home win. Roy Hodgson’s men have won only once away from Anfield in the league and have lost six of their nine games.
However, traders might like to take more notice of the over/under goals markets. Games between these two fierce northwest rivals have often produced late goals. In four of the last five meetings there have been five goals scored later than the 70th minute. It might also pay therefore to let the game develop and if it remains level until fairly late on, consider laying the draw or backing United to win late on.
Arsenal the business
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 11th, 2010
If you look at the top of the premiership there is a lot of ‘buying points’ going on. Chelsea and Man City have spent a fortune buying up talent to keep hold of a top four place. Man Utd have also spent a lot, but not as prolifically as the former teams. One likely reason for this is that Man Utd are run as a business, albeit a heavily indebted one. So they can’t afford to run the business in an insolvent manner. Much of this relies on success though, so they HAVE to do well or they will suffer.
Outside of those three we have Arsenal. While they may be seen as underpeformers, realtively speaking they are not. But the thing I like about Arsenal is the way they run their business. This article gives you a peak inside this: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11403202
Because of this I would tip Arsenal to be there or thereabouts for a few years. You never know when a new Man City or Chelsea could come along, but I feel Arsenal are in the unique position of having a decent vision of how the club should be run off the field and a consistent pattern of performance on the field. You can’t fund immense losses forever, so you feel those clubs burdened with those issues will eventually have to revert to a more sensible model. That should mean they head for lower performance in general.
The finances in football have distorted the landscape significantly, I think this has lead to football losing it’s soul somewhat. I’d be in favour of a more level playing field, but I realise that’s unrealistic now. But sooner or later football will have to pull itself together. In the meantime follow teams at either end other financial scale for season long value opportunties.
Lessons from Liverpool
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 7th, 2010
Tonight we are in the final group stages of the champions league. These matches can throw up some odd results as some have strong incentives to win and others much less so.
Last night the market was pretty stable in the Liverpool vs Aston Villa match. Then the teamsheet came out and there was no Gerrard or Torres on it! You can see the effect this had on the price. It is always worth remembering that while football matches are generally very stable before the off, there are times when that is definately not the case. At least we can often get an understanding of why.
In the end the market got this wrong and Liverpool were comfortable winners. In hindsight some good value was created by this move.
Merseyside Derby
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 17th, 2010
How tantalising is this match!
I’m not sure if I have seen a better set up for this Derby in all my years of following football. Passions will be high and both teams will be desperate for a win. Neither team can really afford to lose, but recent stats favour the home team. Everton have won 9/13 home fixtures while Liverpool have won just 1/12 away fixtures. Given various circumstances I suspect this will be a draw. This is much more likely given that it is a derby match. It’s pretty even all round on the markets, nobody is risking any decisive pricing.
When you look at the market, it has basically priced in a 1-1 draw, plumping for a match with just over 2 goals on average and a slight advantage to Everton. This makes it difficult to put a firm strategy forward until the match gets underway.
Should be a good match to watch anyhow.
Liverpool could face points deduction
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 9th, 2010
Liverpool need to agree a sale by the 15th October or else they could be put into administration. This is significant if you remember my post last year about a similar situation with premiership club Portsmouth. Full story here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/l/liverpool/9074311.stm
For sale : One club, many wrangling owners
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer, Tennis on August 16th, 2010
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I will be keep tabs on Blackpool.
Liverpool’s match against Arsenal was interesting and it played out pretty much as expected. Liverpool didn’t want to lose and neither did Arsenal. But Arsenal were lucky in the end to get the point. I still don’t think that Liverpool are title challengers.
Andy Murray did a fantastic job in defeating Nadal and Federer on his way to the title in Toronto. You shouldn’t read too much emphasis on this title. Most elite athletes will focus on key objectives. Nadal will be very focused on the US open in this tournament will have been a prep for that but not the real deal. Both Nadal and Federer will not be too disappointed at losing. But an excellent win nonetheless for Murray given his path to the title.
I got some kudos at the weekend for correctly predicting the result and score from Portsmouth vs Reading match. The local newspaper asked me to do a write up. So I guess I will be asked again until my luck runs out!
Europa league
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 29th, 2010
Really looking forward to the Europe league this evening. There are strong cases for a goal coming from any of the four teams this evening. So a strategy oriented around this or NOT 0-0 seem sensible this evening. Come later in the game, if there are no goals, neither side will have anything to lose with a strong push in the last few minutes. It will be an interesting night.
Last night I was spot on about the Barca – Inter game and it really felt like it was unlikely to be a three goal or more game. Don’t really know where the market got that from? Tonight is less clear cut but Liverpool vs Atl Madrid is priced for near on three goals and Fulham vs. Hamburg two and a bit. I don’ t think either is unreasonable given the aggregate scores. The market is expecting at least one Liverpool goal.
Bit of a Kop out
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 17th, 2010
No surprise to see Tom Hicks and George Gillett exit stage left at Liverpool. Struggling to refinance their debt they have to find a viable exit, but it’s a terrible time to sell. Liverpool are heading for a poor season and the attractiveness of the club must have been dented by their lack of success, not only this season but in prior seasons also. For the amount of wages they pay they really should be performing better, but I am sure that the constant chatter in the background about everything other than football hasn’t helped.
The problem Liverpool face is that money talks big time in football now and if they can’t get any success this season they will have less to spend next year, unless they find a massive benefactor. If they spend less, the correlation of money to success is so high in this division that they will continue to struggle. When I did some research on the funding of clubs the correlation of wage bill to league position was staggering. It has proved a very reliable predictor this year in the promotion and relegation markets. It’s a sad fact, but unless Liverpool find success or a billionaire with loose pockets , they could find themselves slipping out of the big four bracket for some time. The only solace is that thanks to the recession and tighter FIFA rules it’s unlikely that many new Chelsea’s or Man City’s will appear in the next few years to supplant the incumbents. It’s going to be an interesting end to the season, one which start to determine next season before it’s even started.
I appear to have forgotten my wallet
Europa league
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer, Golf on April 8th, 2010
I am suffering from ‘man flu’ this week so it will be an early night for me.
A tricky start to Aintree left me feeling I needed an early night rather than work through the Europe league this evening, but here are some thoughts for you. This competition has provided plenty of decent opportunities this year and both ties with the English teams involved are set up nicely. Given Fulham’s performances so far in the competition you really feel the wind is behind them and I would fancy playing in this game if it wasn’t for my thumping head. Both Liverpool and Wolfsburg are priced in a similar manner but you have to fancy Fulham to pull something out of tie against Wolfsburg.
Liverpool continue to be an enimga and really need to do well, but I just don’t feel confidence ouzing out of Anfield. Given Man Utd’s exit last night it would be nice to have at least one English team left in a European competition. I think Liverpools odds of winning the competition are a fair reflection on their performances so far but I am sure Benfica will fancy their chances. Good luck if you are playing, I’ll be in bed watching the masters golf.
Europa League
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 18th, 2010
More fun planned this evening with an infinite range of permutations available on each match. But the two English matches do look the most interesting.
Fulham are 3-1 down, but a home goal would create a massive difference to that score line and you get the feeling anything is possible with Fulham. I wouldn’t bet against Fulham pulling it off this evening. The match is priced for 2.6 goals with a slight advantage to the home team. I think that’s too low given the scenarios available.
A team I would be tempted to bet against is Liverpool. OK they thumped Portsmouth the other day, but their confidence is fragile and I don’t know many teams that wouldn’t fancy having a go at them at the moment. A slip up in defence tonight could shred their nerves to the limit or an edgy start and the crowd will get no doubt pass their feelings to the players. Defeat for Benitez could spell the beginning of the end. Liverpool are at quite a short price to defeat Lille and are priced for 2.8 goals with a 1.50 goal advantage. While they should win, I am sure Lille will look to catch them on the break and change the entire complexion of the tie. I don’t think it will take much to do that so I’ll be looking for an upset.
If you are new to football trading, try trading before off. This will give you some risk free cash to splurge in play!
Trade of the week
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 15th, 2010
One of my favourite types of trades appeared this week. The trade where you look at one market but actually trade another. These opportunities appear all the time but typically in knockout competitions and ante post markets where a result somewhere will definitely affect other prices in a same or similar market.
This week was a little more clear cut but unusual. ITV decided to cover the Liverpool vs Reading FA CUP match. It had all the signs of the perfect drama for the FA Cup. I was active on the match and when it was obvious that Liverpool were struggling and lacking confidence I immediately turned to look at Liverpool’s next match to see the price. It seemed others had already started discounting Liverpool’s poor form and the price was on the drift.
Normally that’s about it, the early market starts to adjust to the new information. But the next morning it was revealed that Torres would require surgery on his knee and a couple of other players picked up knocks during that match. So the drift continued. It’s quite rare to see such movements on football matches before the off as they are usually very stable. But, obviously, if circumstances start to change and the news coming out of the camp isn’t good news. The market has to react. One of the lowest risk but most rewarding trading opportunities of the week.
Liverpool vs Man City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 21st, 2009
I’ve had quite a few emails on this match so here are my prices.
Liverpool – 2.02
Man City – 4.30
Draw – 3.60
As you can see the market has it pretty much spot on, maybe very minor value on Man City. I know my prices are within 0.10 accuracy over the course of the season so I can’t see any value. Both teams probably won’t want to lose this one so perhaps a tentative match is likely?
A curious thing about this market is that all the markets suggest an above average number of goals, which is counter to the prevailing psychology of the match. The price on 0-0 correct score will probably decay rapidly if there are no goals.
Liverpool at it again
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 15th, 2009
If there is one recurring theme of football betting is has to be never to bet against Liverpool. Endlessly famously for the impossible comeback in Turin, Liverpool seem to constantly pull the rabbit out of the hat at the least likely moment.
Mid week they cost me some money by defeating Real Madrid 4-0. It’s not that I didn’t expect them to win, I just didn’t figure it would be by four goals! Yesterday they humbled the seemingly impervious Man Utd 4-1 at Old Trafford. No amount of stats or research would have thrown up that result for you. Mid week they were priced for a smidgen over 2 goals for the match with a slight advantage over Real. Yesterday was a similar scenario but in reverse, i.e. in favour of Man U, similar result! On this occasion I didn’t do anything, given the result midweek and the the extra day Liverpool had to recover.
I think this does show why a succesfull strategy on football really turns out to be a numbers game. While these results are ‘odd’ from a statistical perspective a delve through the records confirms that the world hasn’t suddenly changed it just that these sorts of results stick out more. That said, I’ll still reserve my right not to bet against Liverpool.