Posts Tagged liverpool
Trade of the week
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 15th, 2010
One of my favourite types of trades appeared this week. The trade where you look at one market but actually trade another. These opportunities appear all the time but typically in knockout competitions and ante post markets where a result somewhere will definitely affect other prices in a same or similar market.
This week was a little more clear cut but unusual. ITV decided to cover the Liverpool vs Reading FA CUP match. It had all the signs of the perfect drama for the FA Cup. I was active on the match and when it was obvious that Liverpool were struggling and lacking confidence I immediately turned to look at Liverpool’s next match to see the price. It seemed others had already started discounting Liverpool’s poor form and the price was on the drift.
Normally that’s about it, the early market starts to adjust to the new information. But the next morning it was revealed that Torres would require surgery on his knee and a couple of other players picked up knocks during that match. So the drift continued. It’s quite rare to see such movements on football matches before the off as they are usually very stable. But, obviously, if circumstances start to change and the news coming out of the camp isn’t good news. The market has to react. One of the lowest risk but most rewarding trading opportunities of the week.
Liverpool vs Man City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 21st, 2009
I’ve had quite a few emails on this match so here are my prices.
Liverpool – 2.02
Man City – 4.30
Draw – 3.60
As you can see the market has it pretty much spot on, maybe very minor value on Man City. I know my prices are within 0.10 accuracy over the course of the season so I can’t see any value. Both teams probably won’t want to lose this one so perhaps a tentative match is likely?
A curious thing about this market is that all the markets suggest an above average number of goals, which is counter to the prevailing psychology of the match. The price on 0-0 correct score will probably decay rapidly if there are no goals.
Liverpool at it again
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 15th, 2009
If there is one recurring theme of football betting is has to be never to bet against Liverpool. Endlessly famously for the impossible comeback in Turin, Liverpool seem to constantly pull the rabbit out of the hat at the least likely moment.
Mid week they cost me some money by defeating Real Madrid 4-0. It’s not that I didn’t expect them to win, I just didn’t figure it would be by four goals! Yesterday they humbled the seemingly impervious Man Utd 4-1 at Old Trafford. No amount of stats or research would have thrown up that result for you. Mid week they were priced for a smidgen over 2 goals for the match with a slight advantage over Real. Yesterday was a similar scenario but in reverse, i.e. in favour of Man U, similar result! On this occasion I didn’t do anything, given the result midweek and the the extra day Liverpool had to recover.
I think this does show why a succesfull strategy on football really turns out to be a numbers game. While these results are ‘odd’ from a statistical perspective a delve through the records confirms that the world hasn’t suddenly changed it just that these sorts of results stick out more. That said, I’ll still reserve my right not to bet against Liverpool.