Posts Tagged man city
In the wrong Kompany!
Posted by Peter Webb in FA CUP, Football / Soccer on January 14th, 2012
There are many cases for backing or laying at 1.02. But last Sunday we had a great example of why you just wouldn’t back at such short odds.
First off lets look at the odds: -
At 1.02 you would return £2 for every £100 staked. If you laid, then the opposing situation is true; you would earn £100 for every £2 lost. At odds of 1.02 the market is telling you there is a 98% of this situation occurring. To get value from this situation you have to know that the event you are betting on will occur over 98% of the time. If you lay then you could concur that the opposing situation should be true, you would only stand a 2% chance of possibly winning anything. But that’s not actually true, thanks to volatility.
Therefore the trick to doing a successful trade is to expose yourself to potential upside at the lowest risk, then wait.
At half time in this match Man Utd were 3-0 up, away from home, in the FA Cup, a player up, in a local Derby. If you were in the dressing room at half time what would you recommend to your players? With a three goal lead and more players you could push on to try and finish the match and risk conceding, but at 3-0 up the match is all but lost by your opponents. Probably best then to try and limit your opponents opportunities, i.e. defend.
If you were Man City would you would probably feel aggrieved with that red card and would be desperate to avoid the sort of humiliation they dished out to their opponents at their ground, but also you would want to get things sorted out pretty sharpish in the second half.
If you backed Man Utd, you would have exposed yourself to 45 minutes of angst. OK they were likely to win but with the normal distribution of a goal well below 45 minutes, especially for the home team, a goal from City was quite likely and the odds would respond. You can use Soccer Mystic to work out upside you have, or how much time you have before your downside completes. If you laid, then it would take some time for the price on Man Utd to sink to 1.01 to Lay, but in that time your would expose yourself to plenty of upside.
Last Sunday it made sense to lay.
Red card, for the ref?
United vs City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 23rd, 2011
One of the big matches of the season is up today, the Manchester Derby. I’m really intrigued.
This is the real acid test of who is going to be in the ascendancy over the season. Both have thrown down the gauntlet with very good early season performances and matching each other stride for stride so far. So this match is the first opportunity to throw both in the mix and see what comes out of the melting pot.
You have to feel there is a good chance of a draw. Either side will not want to lose and that will cause either side to really chase down a goal if they go behind. Local matches always throw up more draws than non local matches anyhow. I’d love to watch it but unfortunately I will be on a plane at kick off so I wont get to see it at all. I’ll have to fire up my laptop to view the highlights when I land.
Good luck if you are getting involved. You may be interested in taking up Betdaq’s offer of your commission back if either team come from behind to win. Click here to learn more about the offer. Just how often would this happen? On average the away team scores first 44% of the time. 32% of the time they will score first but not win, so it’s a definite possibility. But, Manchester City have only won once at Old Trafford since 1974 – a 2-1 victory for Sven-Goran Eriksson’s side in 2008. It’s going to be an interesting battle.
Click here to learn more about the offer
Champions league
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 27th, 2011
Tonight’s matches should generate on average around 23 goals. I’d rank most to least: -
Real Madrid vs Ajax
Man Utd vs FC Basel
B Munich vs Man City
Lyon vs Dinamo Zagreb
Otelul Galati vs Benfica
Napoli vs Villarreal
Trabzonspor vs Lille
CSKA Moscow vs Inter
I much prefer the knockout stage of the competition or the latter stages of the group stages when incentive to score is highest.
Stat of the evening for you. There is around an early 60′s% percent chance that B Munich could take the lead at some point during the match against Man City.
Pity City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 8th, 2011
That was an intruiguing and exciting start to the the elite football season. This charity shiled final highlights where a lot of people go wrong in trading football matches. At half time a 2-0 lead flattered city according to the stats and Man Utd were still in it. Add in their propensity to score late goals and a back on Man United or the draw screamed value.
Unfortunatley I was not in a position to trade on Sunday, but got the data during half time and echoed back to those who asked, what I would do. Ultimately it took a horror error from City to gift the game to United, but they were never really totally out of the game at that point anyhow. It was a good start to the season and late goals elsewhere made it quite a day for football traders.
If you are interested in trading on football matches, check out the unique Soccer Mystic profiling tool in Bet Angel.
City or United?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 7th, 2011
Tricky, neutral ground, key players out, non-descript match, revenge for an FA Cup exit. Many factors in play.
I did a cut of data this morning against similar looking matches. I say similar because I analyse matches on a much deeper level than just look at odds and other top line levels or form. I open up the match and examine what the market is discounting on a number of levels and then recompile it. The neutral aspect of this match makes this a little harder and I’ll admit that most of my data contains the function of home advantage, which is not on display today. I don’t think this is a match I can really get involved in TBH.
However, here is what I found in my database.
95 matches fitted a similar profile to the one we are looking at today. The average score was 1.26 goals to 1.34 for a total of 2.60 goals. The market is discounting 2.47 goals today.
Win and draw rates from the database worked out at cumulative odds of Home (City) 2.94, Draw 3.45 and Away (Utd) of 2.70. As there is no home advantage you should discount the chance of Man City winning. So the market doesn’t seem that far out. Because it’s a bit of a grude match you may see some action on the bookings market I suggest.
FA CUP final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 14th, 2011
Is it just me or does the FA Cup feel like it’s losing is significance? Maybe it’s the dominance by big teams, maybe it’s the fact that this season the premiership and the champions league have pushed it around a little? Anyhow that’s not to detract too much from this famous competition. I am sure either supporters will be rightly proud if their team pull of a win.
The market is pricing in 2.50 goals with an advantage of 0.50 to City, that seems about right. Regardless of the odds past FA Cup finals tell us the matches are very tight affairs with few or no goals and this is especially so in the first half. So my strategy will be based on a low scoring match with any goals likely to occur late on.
The battle for fourth place
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 6th, 2010
While most eyes were firmly focused on Man City vs Spurs last night, a remarkable battle was taking place 200 miles further north for the same place in the Scottish Premiership. Unlike the English battle, which ensured ‘arry team has broken into the previously exclusive top four, the battle in Scotland was for Europa cup place and infinity more exciting and in fact totally remarkable.
UK users can watch the highlights here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/scot_prem/8658858.stm
The match ended 6-6 and that included a saved penalty! The last goal in the match was worthy of squaring such an amazing game. As soon as the result flashed in I was scrambling through my data to find out if there had ever been a 6-6 draw in the top divisions before. When I was young I was lucky enough to watch a 5-5 draw but 6-6 seemed a virtually impossible result. Just seeing twelve goals in a match was remote according to the stats. If you are optimistic then it would be around a 1 in 20,000 chance, but on average it would take nearly 70,000 matches before you would see 12 in one match, the chance of 6-6 would be even remoter.
My correct score spreadsheet didn’t show a single one so I had to dig around to find another. From what I can find , there have been two previous 6-6 draws. Leicester and Arsenal drew 6-6 in April 1930 in the top division, and Charlton drew 6-6 with Middlesbrough in October 1960 in the second division. Charlton had three other matches that season with six or more goals. So unless somebody can inform me otherwise in the many tens of thousands of intervening matches there have been no 6-6 draws. The mean return time appears to be 30-50 years for the entirety of top flight football.
I feel sorry for the Motherwell fans who left at 6-2 down, they just missed a piece of football history.
FA CUP fifth round
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 13th, 2010
I like the later stages of knockout competitions. There is lots to play for and when a goal down and ten minutes are left , it’s all or nothing. These are the places you not only find value but plenty of opportunity and teams playing out of their skin, I love it! Wembley stadium is only a few games away today and anything can happen.
I’ve checked through the odds and nothing wierd has been thrown up. But consider the general picture if you are going to have a play today. With Chelsea and Man City at home it would be a shock to see an upset there, but you may want to be with Stoke if you are looking for one. They have nothing to lose and Man City seem a little fragile. Backing Chelsea at 1.16 is more of a punt than a trade, so look to secondary markets for an opportunity. Cardiff will probably fight a rearguard action and hope to nick something on the break.
Derby, Reading and Southampton are all matches with similar traits. Weaker team playing at home with strong away teams. Both Reading and Southampton will fancy their chances but I’m not so sure about Derby. These matches will probably be played with caution by the stronger away team who don’t want to concede and give the home side an advantage. So I suspect not making mistakes will be the order of the day for the away sides. The longer the match goes on the more the quality should show. An early goal by either side will upset the apple cart.
Both Derby and Southampton’s matches are priced in as low scoring affairs, with little advantage to either side. Usually these matches turn out to scrappy draws. I think the price on the draw should be a little shorter.
Whatever happens, I’ll be on the lookout for late goals, as that is the key characteristic of knockout competitions.
Ratings: -
Chelsea vs. Cardiff Goals: 3.4 Supremacy: 2.8
Man City vs. Stoke Goals: 2.8 Supremacy: 1.8
Reading vs. West Brom Goals: 2.7 Supremacy: -0.1
Southampton vs. Portsmouth Goals: 2.5 Supremacy: -0.1
Derby vs. Birmingham Goals: 2.4 Supremacy: -0.2
Liverpool vs Man City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 21st, 2009
I’ve had quite a few emails on this match so here are my prices.
Liverpool – 2.02
Man City – 4.30
Draw – 3.60
As you can see the market has it pretty much spot on, maybe very minor value on Man City. I know my prices are within 0.10 accuracy over the course of the season so I can’t see any value. Both teams probably won’t want to lose this one so perhaps a tentative match is likely?
A curious thing about this market is that all the markets suggest an above average number of goals, which is counter to the prevailing psychology of the match. The price on 0-0 correct score will probably decay rapidly if there are no goals.
Man Utd time
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 20th, 2009
Couldn’t help but watch the Manchester Derby. Man United desperately needed a late goal at home and guess what, the officials managed to find nearly seven minutes of extra time to allow Man Utd the best possible chance to score. Has this happened before I ask?
The average extra time added is around three minutes. So seven minutes is right at the far end of the bell curve, given that it represents 15% extra time in the half. But what is even more amazing is that the officials clearly, clearly, signalled FOUR minutes of added time. City manager Hughes was complaining on the touch line as to why the match was continuing well past the allocated time, he knew what was coming. The plain truth is that the match should have ended at least 90 seconds before Owen slotted in the winner. Hughes will quite rightly feel very aggrieved that yet again a match at Old Trafford finally ends when Manchester United eventually put the ball in the net.
No sour grapes from me, just an observation. When the match has drifted well into extra time I laid the draw with the profit I had made on scalping it after the sixth goal, but I would certainly wish this scenario wouldn’t play out time and time again at Old Trafford. I would happily dismiss claims of bias as an optical illusion but when you see something like that, it just doesn’t feel right, does it!