Posts Tagged man utd
In the wrong Kompany!
Posted by Peter Webb in FA CUP, Football / Soccer on January 14th, 2012
There are many cases for backing or laying at 1.02. But last Sunday we had a great example of why you just wouldn’t back at such short odds.
First off lets look at the odds: -
At 1.02 you would return £2 for every £100 staked. If you laid, then the opposing situation is true; you would earn £100 for every £2 lost. At odds of 1.02 the market is telling you there is a 98% of this situation occurring. To get value from this situation you have to know that the event you are betting on will occur over 98% of the time. If you lay then you could concur that the opposing situation should be true, you would only stand a 2% chance of possibly winning anything. But that’s not actually true, thanks to volatility.
Therefore the trick to doing a successful trade is to expose yourself to potential upside at the lowest risk, then wait.
At half time in this match Man Utd were 3-0 up, away from home, in the FA Cup, a player up, in a local Derby. If you were in the dressing room at half time what would you recommend to your players? With a three goal lead and more players you could push on to try and finish the match and risk conceding, but at 3-0 up the match is all but lost by your opponents. Probably best then to try and limit your opponents opportunities, i.e. defend.
If you were Man City would you would probably feel aggrieved with that red card and would be desperate to avoid the sort of humiliation they dished out to their opponents at their ground, but also you would want to get things sorted out pretty sharpish in the second half.
If you backed Man Utd, you would have exposed yourself to 45 minutes of angst. OK they were likely to win but with the normal distribution of a goal well below 45 minutes, especially for the home team, a goal from City was quite likely and the odds would respond. You can use Soccer Mystic to work out upside you have, or how much time you have before your downside completes. If you laid, then it would take some time for the price on Man Utd to sink to 1.01 to Lay, but in that time your would expose yourself to plenty of upside.
Last Sunday it made sense to lay.
Red card, for the ref?
Carling cup lessons
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 1st, 2011
Some interesting lessons from last nights Carling Cup.
First, the best bet of the night wasn’t on Man Utd or Crystal Palace but elsewhere, have a think about it. In the underlying match itself there was a in-play characteristic that really showed up Man Utd’s struggles. It made an outside bet on Palace a good option.
I have to thank an ‘expert’ for hihglighting this characteristic that I hadn’t looked at before. But rather bizarrely this academic was using it to prove almost the complete opposite of what I am using it for. I found it by reading some of the more academic blogs out there. I often find this interesting as they are trying to answer the why of the more subtle aspects of football.
The problem you have with information is that you often find a problem with the way people approach things, especially academics. They tend to lack subjective thought. It’s easy to slip into the mode of looking for justification of something, rather than taking a step back and understanding what actually creates a characteristic. I.e. you seek to justify your findings rather than getting feedback on them. This often leads you down a blind alley which is what happened on the blog post I read.
I took one look at it and thought, ‘That’s interesting, but doesn’t seem right’. So I rolled up my sleeves and went to replicate his findings only to find out there was additional information contained in them that he had missed. This was only because he was seeking to illustrate and prove a point. In doing so he missed the a different point, in fact I’d say he got the whole thing wrong but I haven’t done enough to confidently say that just yet.
I have to say I’m not keen on these types of cup matches but did well this week from both of them by taking positions that were fairly likely to pay off or offer limited downside. Despite the mixed up lack of quality it proved entertaining. The Europa league is turning into the Carling cup of Europe by the look of it. So I’m a bit mixed on that this year, but will be hacking away at it again tonight.
Every action..
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 25th, 2011
Requires an equal and opposite reaction… said Issac Newton.
So my attention is drawn to the clash between Aldershot and Man Utd this evening.
Man Utd should win, but the odds are discounting a bit of uncertainty, which is probably a fair reflection of the likely team and how they will play. But can Fergie risk anything less than an emphatic victory? I’m on the look out for a reaction to the stunning result on Sunday. I imagine that will galvanize them into action.
I’m not really into these matches generally as they are difficult to accurate assess, but I sense there could be an opportunity in this match this evening.
United vs City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 23rd, 2011
One of the big matches of the season is up today, the Manchester Derby. I’m really intrigued.
This is the real acid test of who is going to be in the ascendancy over the season. Both have thrown down the gauntlet with very good early season performances and matching each other stride for stride so far. So this match is the first opportunity to throw both in the mix and see what comes out of the melting pot.
You have to feel there is a good chance of a draw. Either side will not want to lose and that will cause either side to really chase down a goal if they go behind. Local matches always throw up more draws than non local matches anyhow. I’d love to watch it but unfortunately I will be on a plane at kick off so I wont get to see it at all. I’ll have to fire up my laptop to view the highlights when I land.
Good luck if you are getting involved. You may be interested in taking up Betdaq’s offer of your commission back if either team come from behind to win. Click here to learn more about the offer. Just how often would this happen? On average the away team scores first 44% of the time. 32% of the time they will score first but not win, so it’s a definite possibility. But, Manchester City have only won once at Old Trafford since 1974 – a 2-1 victory for Sven-Goran Eriksson’s side in 2008. It’s going to be an interesting battle.
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Pity City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 8th, 2011
That was an intruiguing and exciting start to the the elite football season. This charity shiled final highlights where a lot of people go wrong in trading football matches. At half time a 2-0 lead flattered city according to the stats and Man Utd were still in it. Add in their propensity to score late goals and a back on Man United or the draw screamed value.
Unfortunatley I was not in a position to trade on Sunday, but got the data during half time and echoed back to those who asked, what I would do. Ultimately it took a horror error from City to gift the game to United, but they were never really totally out of the game at that point anyhow. It was a good start to the season and late goals elsewhere made it quite a day for football traders.
If you are interested in trading on football matches, check out the unique Soccer Mystic profiling tool in Bet Angel.
City or United?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 7th, 2011
Tricky, neutral ground, key players out, non-descript match, revenge for an FA Cup exit. Many factors in play.
I did a cut of data this morning against similar looking matches. I say similar because I analyse matches on a much deeper level than just look at odds and other top line levels or form. I open up the match and examine what the market is discounting on a number of levels and then recompile it. The neutral aspect of this match makes this a little harder and I’ll admit that most of my data contains the function of home advantage, which is not on display today. I don’t think this is a match I can really get involved in TBH.
However, here is what I found in my database.
95 matches fitted a similar profile to the one we are looking at today. The average score was 1.26 goals to 1.34 for a total of 2.60 goals. The market is discounting 2.47 goals today.
Win and draw rates from the database worked out at cumulative odds of Home (City) 2.94, Draw 3.45 and Away (Utd) of 2.70. As there is no home advantage you should discount the chance of Man City winning. So the market doesn’t seem that far out. Because it’s a bit of a grude match you may see some action on the bookings market I suggest.
Champions League
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 28th, 2011
Everybody else will be posting about it so I thought I would add my two penneth worth.
An intriguing clash, for once I think I will watch this than trade it.
A neutral venue but Man Utd will practically be at home, so you would have to favour Barca but discount some of the neutrality. I think this is the weakest Man Utd team for a while. Other teams really should have put in a stronger challenge for the premier league this season, but we all know the stories behind that.
These sort of matches are difficult to price, so I would suggest it’s the sort of match where you could find some value once a pattern develops in the match. It’s so delicately balanced and both teams have a huge incentive to win tactics will play an important role.
The market is saying 2.40 goals, slightly above normal for this type of match, with a 0.40 advantage to Barcelona. This is effectively saying this is a very even match but Barcelona are at ‘at home’, they have the equivalent of home advantage. I think it’s more uneven than that, but a lot will depending on whether there is an early goal. That will really set the agenda. I’ve had a delve through my database for similar matches, but they are all a bit inconclusive to be honest.
I would recommend seeing how the opening exchanges are playing out and getting involved from there. It’s difficult to make any firm judgements before the off, but I’m leaning on the side of Barcelona. I am hoping for an entertaining match!
Match of the season
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 8th, 2011
A tantalising match this afternoon between Man Utd and Chelsea and the market is being cautious by pricing up Man Utd at 2.34 for the win. I would have priced Chelsea near 4.00 for a win here, but with so much at stake; its probably right for the price to be a bit shorter. The market is priced for 2.50 goals with 1.30 going to Man Utd.
Home advantage is historically 0.40 goals so if you take that out, the market is saying Man Utd are 0.90 goals better than Chelsea. If you think that is too high then you should back Chelsea. Away teams typically score first around 40% of the time in matches like this, so there are several strategic options available for you. I am visiting relatives for the day so no chance for me to trade unfortunately. But, thanks to the wonders of modern technology, I should be able to watch it.
If you want to do something with more certainty then look no further than the Italian league. The volume leader in all matches for whole of today, when I did my analysis this morning, was Bolonga vs Parma with over £600k traded already. Nearly all that is on the draw, which is priced at the astoundingly low price of 1.41. I wonder how that match will pan out 
May the 4th be with you
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 4th, 2011
Hmm, not sure Ferguson is making the right decision to rest players ahead of tonight’s Champions league semi final. OK a two goal lead should be plenty but a goal for Schalke could really put the cat amongst the pigeons. I guess he will bench key players and bring them on if it merits it?
I had a quick look on the DB and hunted for Man Utd matches at home priced between 1.50-1.60. It threw up five recent matches. United won 4/5 but on three occasions the away team scored first. The most poignant one was last December when Man Utd placed Valencia at Old Trafford and drew 1-1, Valencia scored first them as well.
United are on the drift at the moment.
Forgone conclusion?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 3rd, 2011
You can’t help but think, like the rest of the community, that the two champions league semi finals are forgone conclusions. I looked at the weekend markets and curiously all teams lost, so no clues in there. But it was possible to start opposing Man Utd after it dawned to me that they may have half an eye on the semi final.
The market is discounting a win by one goal for Barcelona tonight but much depends on whether Real Madrid throw the kitchen sink at them. They need at least a goal and that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons. I remember the famous Mourinho draw at Old Trafford that put Man Utd out a few years ago. I’m going to try and work some money into the market and go for an outside chance. I’ll likely know by half time whether this is likely or not.
Man Utd don’t have the strongest team of recent years but should be able to get past Schalke. There performance was a bit tepid over the weekend but, looking at the stats, were a little unlucky to lose against Arsenal. I think this semi final is a little more favouable to Utd. If the do progress they a have lot to worry about when it comes to the final and the league run in will not be helpful.
Strange things can happen in knockout competitions
Farcelona
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 28th, 2011
That was the word on the street after the sending off last night. It seems a common trait to dislike success, but you can’t escape the fact that Barcelona have proved on many occasions that they are by far the best team in the tournament and did so again last night. It’s just such a shame they have often degraded their performances with gamesmanship.
It’s also a shame that the first leg was a duplicate of the other semi final, as they both are now set up for uncompetitive second legs. That will reduce the ability to get a decent trade away on either. It’s unfortunate that the early rounds threw up so much opportunity, but the later rounds have done little. I lost money last night but much less than I made on the other semi final. You can’t win them all!
Still, here’s looking forward to a Man Utd vs Barcelona final. I think this would be intriguing as, while it is at a neutral venue, Man Utd will practically be at home I suspect. It will be interesting to see how the stats discount this into a price for the final. That’s what I am keeping my eye on now.
Sending off offence?
Schalke vs Man Utd review
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 27th, 2011
The market was predicting a low scoring affair but it was obvious, fairly early on, that the match was likely to be anything but. Man Utd’s pace seemed to surprise Schalke and plenty of chances were created.This produced the unusual effect of there being little price decay in the under 2.5 goals market.
Come half time there were plenty of shots but no goals so a back of overs was a natural step. It took a while be eventually there were two quick goals and this prompted Man Utd to go defensive with a couple of key substitutions and the prospect for another goal was greatly diminished, so I closed out. A satisfactory evening.
Liquidity was very good last night, so I will be going large on the next semi final tonight.
Man Utd to leave it late?
Manchester United have a chance to stretch their lead to nine points at the top against Everton at Old Trafford on Saturday lunchtime. The games are coming thick and fast for United and the signs were there for all to see at Newcastle. United could only manage a goalless draw at St James’ Park and Sir Alex Ferguson will be pleased to return home next. Old Trafford has been an impregnable fortress this campaign with only West Brom returning with a point. That 2-2 draw came on the 16th October and United have been victorious in every home league contest since.
Everton have a woeful record at Old Trafford. The Toffees last victory on United’s home patch came in 1992 and in that period they have failed to win in 17 contests. However, United of late haven’t really been firing and have now gone two games without a goal. They left it late to beat Bolton (88th minute winner), West Ham (were 2-0 before scoring the first of their four goals in the 65th minute) and had a bit of a scare against Chelsea in the Champions League.
Perhaps it would pay to back the draw, and lay off at half-time before backing United.
Cat and mouse
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 12th, 2011
I’m expecting a game of cat and mouse tonight at Old Trafford, both teams would like to score but both have very strong incentives not to concede. This is the only match that holds any great interest in the remaining quarter finals, the others are formalities it would seem. I’ll put some energy into this match this evening but I’ll be planning on doing something else tomorrow.
Man Utd vs. Chelsea is priced at 2.40 goals with a 0.25 goal advantage to Man Utd. That seems a little light on both accounts. The first leg had a rousing start and with a bit of luck Chelsea would have scored. You sense they will go for it tonight and try and get that critical away goal. If they don’t it will be a timid exit from the competition. I’m already busy working some money into the market and will try and look for an outside chance, Chelsea or goals, to get the money rolling in-play.
Showdown
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 6th, 2011
Barcelona are priced for an easy win against Shakhtar and I can’t see beyond that. Barca will want to put this to bed comprehensively in the first leg. However, there are decent trades available for this scenario. Goals give you plenty of scope to hedge good set ups.
Last night’s legs were uncompetitive and the return legs look a formality now, which is a shame. The same can’t be said of tonights showdown at Stamford Bridge. I would have priced in a very tight match with little to either side but the market has priced it like two teams of equal ability but with home advantage to Chelsea. So your decision should centre on whether you feel that this is like a normal league fixture, I’d argue not.
If you look at matches where Chelsea are priced in a similar manner to tonight, then the last eight read WWLDDDDW. In these matches Chelsea have not scored more than two goals and the match hasn’t contained three goals once. Will either team risk it tonight? I doubt it, a Chelsea goal will see Man Utd try to stop conceding another and a Man Utd goal will see them shut up shop. Advantage Ferguson.
Pool lined with gold
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 25th, 2011
What a season Blackpool are having and the tactic when the tangerines are playing is really simple. If they are at large odds at home, back them.
This may sound obvious but if you want to understand the full subtly of this tactic then fire up Soccer Mystic point it to any match where a team is large odds at home and look at what happens to the projected odds in the first half.
You wouldn’t have needed to do this much this season to have netted a heathly profit with not a great deal of downside. If it’s 0-0 at half time you can trade out and if you are clever you, have a look at some of the other stats and you can quickly work out how to hedge the position.
I would have backed Blackpool for relegation at many points this season, but each year one of the promoted clubs benefit from the ‘shock of the new’. This year appears to be Blackpool’s turn. Typically this fades in season two in the top flight so it would be surprise to see it happen. As it is, tonight Blackpool have a real chance to destroy Man Utd’s dream of an unbeaten season. Never would have bet on that either!
Arsenal the business
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 11th, 2010
If you look at the top of the premiership there is a lot of ‘buying points’ going on. Chelsea and Man City have spent a fortune buying up talent to keep hold of a top four place. Man Utd have also spent a lot, but not as prolifically as the former teams. One likely reason for this is that Man Utd are run as a business, albeit a heavily indebted one. So they can’t afford to run the business in an insolvent manner. Much of this relies on success though, so they HAVE to do well or they will suffer.
Outside of those three we have Arsenal. While they may be seen as underpeformers, realtively speaking they are not. But the thing I like about Arsenal is the way they run their business. This article gives you a peak inside this: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11403202
Because of this I would tip Arsenal to be there or thereabouts for a few years. You never know when a new Man City or Chelsea could come along, but I feel Arsenal are in the unique position of having a decent vision of how the club should be run off the field and a consistent pattern of performance on the field. You can’t fund immense losses forever, so you feel those clubs burdened with those issues will eventually have to revert to a more sensible model. That should mean they head for lower performance in general.
The finances in football have distorted the landscape significantly, I think this has lead to football losing it’s soul somewhat. I’d be in favour of a more level playing field, but I realise that’s unrealistic now. But sooner or later football will have to pull itself together. In the meantime follow teams at either end other financial scale for season long value opportunties.
Man Utd to refinance
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 16th, 2010
News story this morning about how the Glazer’s have given notice on their money borrowed from hedge funds.
Read more about the story here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/man_utd/9192771.stm
It’s interesting because the interest payments on the debt have been putting a huge strain on Man Utd’s ability to spend money. A case in point in the following sentence: -
“Earlier this year the rate rose to 16.25%”
I’m aware that raising finance in the current market is tough and rates can be punitive. I went through an exercise last year with somebody that was trying to fund a $20m purchase. We just couldn’t get an acceptable rate through private equity without gingiv up a large chunk of the business and losing control. It didn’t seem worth it.
I guess we will have to wait to see what the deal is that has allowed them to pay down the debt. But I’m keeping a longer term eye on the finances of the big clubs as this will surely dictate their activity in years to come. It’s not possible to live on borrowed funds or large levels of debt indefinitely. The long term winner will be the one that can get that balance of spending and revenue just right. I think a lot have it wrong at the moment, not just at the top.
Two horse race
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 2nd, 2010
So the premiership has narrowed to a two horse race to the line. Chelsea meet Liverpool and Wigan, while Man Utd mean Sunderland and Stoke. On the face of it Chelsea’s 1 point advantage looks tight but when I ran through all the possible combinations and, on average, the one point advantage should be enough to win it. Of course it really hinges on the result at Liverpool, so that really is the championship decider. That match is going to make compelling viewing.
I was thinking of posting up the stats, but its a big spreadsheet with lots of varitions and averaging etc. So I don’t think it’s easy enough to explain. But, there are eighteen paths to follow by the look of it but only four of those can result in Man Utd winning the premiership. For exanple Chelsea not to win on Sunday and Man Utd to win comes in at a 33% chance but for neither to win the next match is only a 4% chance. Basically, whichever way you cut it, Chelsea should do it, on average. You can’t help but thinking though, that at 1.58 to win the championship and with an away trip to Liverpool, it just doesn’t seem value does it?
1.58 says the title is mine Fergie, grazie
Backhim?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 10th, 2010
2-3 is an interesting score line for Mr Beckham to bring to Old Trafford. I thought Beckham was anonymous in the first match. I am sure he will want to do better in this leg. Two away goals is a killer for AC Milan and therefore Man U are at very short prices to qualify. Milan need a clear two goal win to stand any chance so they must score.
The market is pricing in just short of three goals with a .75 goal advantage to Man Utd. Similar to yesterdays Arsenal match. Would be a surprise to see a similar score line! I sense a tentative start by Man U who will wait to pick a hole in the Milan defence and try and catch them on the break. It’s Milan who have to make things happen!
Real Madrid are priced to comfortably over turn Lyon in their match. Priced at 3.20 goals with a 2.20 advantage. They only have one goal to overcome, but a Lyon away goal would really throw the cat among the pigeons. I think both matches show a lack of clear cut opportunties so I fancy making a little money before the off and picking some outside chances in both.
Man Utd time
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 20th, 2009
Couldn’t help but watch the Manchester Derby. Man United desperately needed a late goal at home and guess what, the officials managed to find nearly seven minutes of extra time to allow Man Utd the best possible chance to score. Has this happened before I ask?
The average extra time added is around three minutes. So seven minutes is right at the far end of the bell curve, given that it represents 15% extra time in the half. But what is even more amazing is that the officials clearly, clearly, signalled FOUR minutes of added time. City manager Hughes was complaining on the touch line as to why the match was continuing well past the allocated time, he knew what was coming. The plain truth is that the match should have ended at least 90 seconds before Owen slotted in the winner. Hughes will quite rightly feel very aggrieved that yet again a match at Old Trafford finally ends when Manchester United eventually put the ball in the net.
No sour grapes from me, just an observation. When the match has drifted well into extra time I laid the draw with the profit I had made on scalping it after the sixth goal, but I would certainly wish this scenario wouldn’t play out time and time again at Old Trafford. I would happily dismiss claims of bias as an optical illusion but when you see something like that, it just doesn’t feel right, does it!
Champions league is back – Inter vs Man Utd
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 24th, 2009
Tonight sees the resumption of the champions league with the intriguing match of Inter vs Man Utd.
Mixed signals are coming out of both camps about how they will play. Mourinho suggesting defence will be key, Ferguson hinting that won’t be the case. I doubt either are likely to tell you exactly what they are thinking.
The market is thinking about a draw. The goal forecast from the market is for 2.20 goals on average with a slight edge to Inter. Looking at my stats I reckon Man Utd are a little too short in the market. Fair value should be around 3.05-3.35. Under 2.5 goals should be around 1.56 for a match with these characteristics, so that looks long term value.
If you are interested in how I view this match and the most sensible way to trade it, view the following video. The following video was made using Soccer Mystic. Soccer Mystic is free when you sign up to Bet Angel.