Posts Tagged manchester united
Forgone conclusion?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 3rd, 2011
You can’t help but think, like the rest of the community, that the two champions league semi finals are forgone conclusions. I looked at the weekend markets and curiously all teams lost, so no clues in there. But it was possible to start opposing Man Utd after it dawned to me that they may have half an eye on the semi final.
The market is discounting a win by one goal for Barcelona tonight but much depends on whether Real Madrid throw the kitchen sink at them. They need at least a goal and that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons. I remember the famous Mourinho draw at Old Trafford that put Man Utd out a few years ago. I’m going to try and work some money into the market and go for an outside chance. I’ll likely know by half time whether this is likely or not.
Man Utd don’t have the strongest team of recent years but should be able to get past Schalke. There performance was a bit tepid over the weekend but, looking at the stats, were a little unlucky to lose against Arsenal. I think this semi final is a little more favouable to Utd. If the do progress they a have lot to worry about when it comes to the final and the league run in will not be helpful.
Strange things can happen in knockout competitions
Late winner in the Manchester derby?
Traders will be arguing among themselves about whether there will be a goal-fest on Saturday when Manchester United and Manchester City do battle. The game at Eastlands earlier in the season produced a goalless draw, which was arguably one of the worst games of the year. However, who can forget last year’s seven goal thriller when Michael Owen scored a 94th minute winner to shatter the Citizen’s hearts.
Since August Roberto Mancini’s side have built up a reputation of putting men behind the ball and being happy for a point against the better sides, a perfect example of this was at the Emirates in January. That has been further highlighted in the number of goals the Citizens scored against sides in the top five positions – one.
It’s not just the blue side of Manchester that has struggled to score against top five opposition, United’s four games against such clubs have produced just three goals.
Bearing in mind that there has been one goal scored in the last two league meetings between United and City, it’ll be worth letting the game develop and if it remains tight back the Red Devils to win it late on when their price has risen significantly. Paul Scholes headed a late winner at Eastlands and another would bring in a healthy profit.
Man Utd to refinance
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 16th, 2010
News story this morning about how the Glazer’s have given notice on their money borrowed from hedge funds.
Read more about the story here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/man_utd/9192771.stm
It’s interesting because the interest payments on the debt have been putting a huge strain on Man Utd’s ability to spend money. A case in point in the following sentence: -
“Earlier this year the rate rose to 16.25%”
I’m aware that raising finance in the current market is tough and rates can be punitive. I went through an exercise last year with somebody that was trying to fund a $20m purchase. We just couldn’t get an acceptable rate through private equity without gingiv up a large chunk of the business and losing control. It didn’t seem worth it.
I guess we will have to wait to see what the deal is that has allowed them to pay down the debt. But I’m keeping a longer term eye on the finances of the big clubs as this will surely dictate their activity in years to come. It’s not possible to live on borrowed funds or large levels of debt indefinitely. The long term winner will be the one that can get that balance of spending and revenue just right. I think a lot have it wrong at the moment, not just at the top.
Rooney signs five-year deal with…
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 22nd, 2010
What a saga and seemingly for nothing, Rooney has signed for…… Man Utd. Was this just one big bluff? It will be interesting to understand what exactly happened here.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/man_utd/9118602.stm
Has this happened before?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 3rd, 2010
An oft quoted phrase.
But, Man U 0-1 Leeds United. That was a big turned up for the books wasn’t it? Or was it?
Well you don’t need to wind back far to see the last time a similar thing happened. I looked at matches where the home team were priced between 1.25 to 1.30 for a home win. Curiously, where this involved an English team playing a foreign team, the English teams were very dominant. Focusing just on domestic football the last ‘shock’ actually only occurred less than a month ago with Wolves winning at Spurs, Spurs were 1.30 to win. But going back further it was actually quite tough to find a similar situation, the glaring exception being Manchester Utd vs Coventry in the league cup in 2007. Man U lost 0-2 at home. Memories are short, aren’t they? If you go back a little further to 2005 Man U drew 0-0 with lowly Exeter in the third round at home as well.
Out of the 33 matches I could easily find back to 2007, 2 ended up in victories for the away team. That works out to odds of 2/33 or 16.50 in digital odds for the away team. Leeds started the match at odds of, you guessed it, 16.50!!
Football often throws up odds results thanks to the fact that so few goals are scored on average. One goal can make a huge difference to a game. Therefore football is one of the sports where upsets can, and do occur, with quite a bit of frequency.