Posts Tagged market
Betfair market anomalies
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair, Horse Racing on January 12th, 2012
An interesting couple of days so far this week in the markets. Interesting for an anomaly that we have seen. It’s only a couple of days old, so I can’t draw any conclusions just yet, but it is unusual so I thought I’d post about it.
We monitor the markets cloesly and ‘felt’ that matched bet volume on occasion was much higher than we would expect. We noticed this because, in the latter stages of a racing market just before the off, we were suddendly seeing very high per second volume. So this morning I had a nose at the data from this year so far.
In the last two days there have been three races each where volume was over one million. But since the start of the year, ten days, we have seen 20 in total. So that doesn’t seem stand out on it’s own, 20 vs. perhaps an expectation of 30.
But the the overall average volume has been much higher than normal, 123% of average on the 9th and 143% yesterday. I have deliberately rebased the volume to take account of different pricing that may distort the overall volume.
It’s difficult to know if this is a trend or some else is happening, but something changed over these two days. It could be temporary of there could be some other explanation, but we will be keeping an eye on it.
The big backer
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 21st, 2011
If you are active on the markets, then I am sure you may have seen this character around. If not then they appear fairly regularly recently, either trying to get filled at a certain price or just deliberately trying to stop the price from moving. I think it’s an odd strategy, as dipping in and around the markets is like playing poker. You don’t want to show your hand!
When somebody shows their hand like this then it’s an open invitation to oppose them, make their life difficult or work on other selections in the market on the basis or what they are doing on that runner. It all seems a bit odd to me, as by showing their hand they are presenting clear opportunites. So, whoever you are, thank you!
Waves
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 31st, 2011
For some time I’ve noticed curious elements within betting markets. I love analysing and studying what happens in the market, and it’s all to find out that critical question, why?
Getting a deeper understanding is useful because it allows you to build a firm framework around your decisions. I’ve often seen people stumble on something that works and then come up with things to justify that. Eventually they will fail a little while later and slip out of existence, why? Finding success can gives you false belief that you ‘have it sussed’ when in fact just finding something that works could just be a fluke. Failing to examine the “why” question is a key error for a lot of people in any market. I saw this a lot in financial markets. Sometimes people think they know why but they are only just scratching the real reason.
I’m interested in why things fail, or specifically exactly why does something really work. Each year I modify my strategy in a constant game of cat and mouse as a result of my research. It could be just to improve what I have, or to respond to a change in the market. When I do that, no doubt somebody else responds to that change and so the game continues. If I stayed still I would also get pushed out of existance.
For some time I’ve been aware of a general ‘wave’ in the market that determines how favourable it is for certain strategies. The market ebbs and flows and when the wave is peaking, that is the time of greatest opportunity. I never really, truly, understood why until recently. With a clear head after my holiday, I set about solving something unrelated and too my surprise I realised that it mapped very well on top of the wave. Within a few hours I had finally worked out what generates this phenomenon. The unfortunate thing is I can’t influence it but at least I understand another new thing about the market.
Bump..
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 21st, 2011
Now Cheltenham is firmly behind us and the champions league football pauses for a few weeks, it’s time to come back to earth with a bump. On the racing front, the weeks before and after Cheltenham are often starkly different, so it’s time to dig deep and stay out of trouble.
I’ll be adopting a cautious approach in the coming week and not trying to push too hard to find an opportunity. Doing that gives you a tendency to look for something that doesn’t exist. That said, opportunities are apparent all the time, so don’t miss out on them, just be aware they will be fewer and less obvious. Last week some of the races in between Cheltenham presented some opportunities, so it’s wrong to assume last week was just about Cheltenham.
Anyhow, expect a different feel to this week and play defensive is my advice.
There was a little girl
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 19th, 2010
You may have heard this poem before: -
There was a little girl,
Who had a little curl,
Right in the middle of her forehead.
When she was good,
She was very good indeed,
But when she was bad she was horrid.
The market can feel like that at times and it can be the very thing that throws you off balance. But you have to believe that just as the market can be horrid she can be very good too! This week the racing card was a bit of a mess. Poor quality racing, mainly at lower grade courses with small fields. It was always going to be tough, and so that proved. There is always tomorrow to have a good day and you just move on but sometimes the market can be horrid. But also just because you had a tough day, doesn’t mean others wont. It just may not suit your style.
Comparing any day to last week, last month or last year is always going to be subjective. So don’t imagine you can get a repeat performance simply because of your prior results. No matter how clever you are sometimes the market just isn’t strong enough to work the way you want. At this point sit back and wait for clear cut opportunities, pushing your luck just won’t work. Some days the market just wants to be horrid!
Eboring
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 19th, 2010
OK the racing has been entertaining, but the trading has been less fulfilling and lacked a bit of spark about it. This is probably due to a participant(s) in the market that is causing grief for quite a few traders.
On Tuesday I seriously underperformed in light of this activity, but on Wednesday I turned it around having monitored the activity. I think that’s the problem with this tactic, it is easily exposed. We put the autotrading spreadsheet on the market using small stakes and analysed the resultant data to understand what is really going on. This answered quite a few questions for us, but still left some unanswered; but it was a big step forward. We think this person could get seriously caught out given the right situation occurring in the market, so we are just waiting for the that opportunity. We will continue to monitor this unusual activity.
The Ebor turned over £1.6m vs £2.3m last year but on a like for like basis it was about level. I underperformed on this race, but still got a reasonable result.
Madness and wisdom
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 12th, 2010
Are the racing markets becoming more or less volatile?
I can answer that with a definite YES. Yes they are becoming more and less volatile. Let me explain.
A few years ago I could pop an order in the market and wait for it to get filled. Now, if I go into a weaker than average race, like many this week, that doesn’t happen in the same manner anymore. If I get my staking wrong, the market takes one look at my order and runs away from it. I can almost sense the panic in the market when my order sits there. On a macro basis the market is jumpier, more volatile, than it used to be. It is the madness of crowds, people reacting too much to a short term situation. However, that shouldn’t stop you from trading effectively, you may just have to change your tack a little. Like everything on the exchanges if you spot something or suffer due to something, you can simply invert it. Exchanges markets are beautiful, if temperamental, beasts.
Longer term the markets are getting more efficient at pricing risk. Each year that passes, it gets ever so slightly more efficient. We have also noticed that the long term volatility in the markets is narrowing slightly. This would appear to be a reflection on the wisdom of crowds.
So there you have it, the markets are more volatile, but less. This appears to reflect the dual, or should I say duel, madness and wisdom of this particular crowd. When you look at it from a broad perspective, wisdom is winning.