Posts Tagged murray
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 16th, 2010
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I will be keep tabs on Blackpool.
Liverpool’s match against Arsenal was interesting and it played out pretty much as expected. Liverpool didn’t want to lose and neither did Arsenal. But Arsenal were lucky in the end to get the point. I still don’t think that Liverpool are title challengers.
Andy Murray did a fantastic job in defeating Nadal and Federer on his way to the title in Toronto. You shouldn’t read too much emphasis on this title. Most elite athletes will focus on key objectives. Nadal will be very focused on the US open in this tournament will have been a prep for that but not the real deal. Both Nadal and Federer will not be too disappointed at losing. But an excellent win nonetheless for Murray given his path to the title.
I got some kudos at the weekend for correctly predicting the result and score from Portsmouth vs Reading match. The local newspaper asked me to do a write up. So I guess I will be asked again until my luck runs out!
Reaching a climax
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 2nd, 2010
Excuse the double entendre but both Wimbledon and the World cup are now reaching the critical stages.
Both Nadal and Murray know that they have a great chance to win Wimbledon if they get through the semi final. That said, Berdych is on fire at the moment as I write this. I can’t help but think Murray’s price is a little low given his opponent. The market is telling us there is only a 2.7% difference in ability given the odds, that doesn’t seem correct.
Brazil vs Netherlands is price at 2.32 goals with half a goal to Brazil. I don’t have a strong opinion on this one but instinct is telling me to look for an opportunity to lay Brazil. They haven’t come up against much yet and attitudes start to shift in the latter stages of a competition. Everybody knows they are only a couple of games away from glory. Should be an interesting match.
Uruguay vs Ghana is priced even tighter at 2.20 goals with half a goal to Uruguay. Forlan has been prominent in each game so far and seems on form, though I suspect lots of people would like Ghana to win. I think 2.20 goals is too low. Can’t wait for the Germany vs Argentina game!
Murray vs Gasquet
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 24th, 2010
I know British hopefuls will be dissapointed if Murray goes at in the first round at Roland Garros. But at the current market price Murray is priced at only being a couple of percent better than Gasquet. That makes it a tough match for Murray. Nadal is at very short prices to add a fifth title.
If Murray wins the first set then expect his price to reach 1.28, if Gasquet wins Murray would drift to 2.36.
Murray suffers shock defeat
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 25th, 2010
1.12 turned over, in a shock defeat.
However, short odds turned over in these sorts of matches are not uncommon. If you limit a match to three sets then the propensity for an upsets shoots up. One break of serve, if you are serving first, wins you the set. A couple of errors in the next set and the match is over. If the prospect of a shock was high, then it was in space yesterday when Tipsy took Murray to a tie break in the first set. After wining that, the maths and Tennis gods were always working against Murray.
The percentage difference of one server winning a point against another is typically quite small. So, thanks to the unique scoring system that tennis has, tiny errors can result in large end results. But this is especially so when there are fewer sets to be played.
Surprise exit for Murray?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 12th, 2009
I was suprised to see people claim that Andy Murray’s exit from the Paris masters was a surprise. Despite such a late night last night, Murray was in action again today and looking very tired. I thought his price was pretty short but it got very short indeed when he won the first set. From there Murray really ran out of steam and I thought it was odd that the market hadn’t priced this in. Just goes to show that stats can only every tell you one side of the story.
Murray mullered
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 8th, 2009
Andy Murray was completely outclassed this evening in New York. Cilic dominated the match to win in three straight sets and fairly easily. Despite only have a first serve percentage of around 30% in the second set, Cilic still dominated a poor Murray to cruise to victory. The warning signs were there from the off and the second set confirmed Murray’s error strewn display.
Even after taking the first set you could still Lay murray at 1.30′s and he never really got into the game. Pre off £2m was traded on Murray at 1.08 & 1.09. A boon for low layers and as I mentioned the other day even if the favourite goes on to win its quite possible to trade out at break even or a profit. If the favourite doesn’t, the upside is huge. Federer is now odds on to win the title again and Del Potro is looking now looking quite interesting.
Montreal Murray
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 16th, 2009
An interesting match. Del Potro sneaked the first, Murray the second, both on tie breaks, and then Murray trounced a tired looking Del Petro in the last. At potentially 1-1 in a three set match a tie break can bring some really significant opportunties and that was proved once again today. Murray traded around the 3′s at worse but after leveling the match his price crashed back into the starting price of 1.50. A quick and brutal swing. For a small punt you would have clearly defined upside and if Murray lost, the match was lost as well. A fairly simple risk reward, mechanism.
One interesting thing about this match was the wild swings in odds, this says a lot for how it was specifically traded. You will also notice on the graph the very clearly defined odds models being used in the market. In all a very interesting tournament and final.
Murray is 11% better than Starace
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 27th, 2009
Just watching the 2nd round match at the French open. According to the market at the ‘off’ Murray was 11% better than Starace at winning a point on his serve. Currently Murray just lost the second set, but reading the match Murray appeared to lose hope of turning around the second set and effectively just gave it away, probably to conserve energy. With Murray serving first in the third set I may consider backing Murray subject to how the third set unfolds.
Murray at the aussie open
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 22nd, 2009
I haven’t been able to do much on the open for obvious reasons but have been following it as best I can. It’s a real shame as I have continued working on Tennis for some time now and I planned to let rip on the open. That will have to wait for now.
At the start of the tournament I wrote down the rankings of the players Murray was likely to play. So far it’s spot on, here is the list: -
R1 1140
R2 84
R3 31
R4 14
QF 5
SF 1
TF 2
He was pretty much 1.01 to win the first, 1.02 for the second and now 1.07 for the third round. From here on in, things get a bit more tricky. He would likely end up playing Nadal in the semis and Federer in the final.
For the full draw, click here.