Posts Tagged nadal
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 16th, 2010
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I will be keep tabs on Blackpool.
Liverpool’s match against Arsenal was interesting and it played out pretty much as expected. Liverpool didn’t want to lose and neither did Arsenal. But Arsenal were lucky in the end to get the point. I still don’t think that Liverpool are title challengers.
Andy Murray did a fantastic job in defeating Nadal and Federer on his way to the title in Toronto. You shouldn’t read too much emphasis on this title. Most elite athletes will focus on key objectives. Nadal will be very focused on the US open in this tournament will have been a prep for that but not the real deal. Both Nadal and Federer will not be too disappointed at losing. But an excellent win nonetheless for Murray given his path to the title.
I got some kudos at the weekend for correctly predicting the result and score from Portsmouth vs Reading match. The local newspaper asked me to do a write up. So I guess I will be asked again until my luck runs out!
Reaching a climax
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 2nd, 2010
Excuse the double entendre but both Wimbledon and the World cup are now reaching the critical stages.
Both Nadal and Murray know that they have a great chance to win Wimbledon if they get through the semi final. That said, Berdych is on fire at the moment as I write this. I can’t help but think Murray’s price is a little low given his opponent. The market is telling us there is only a 2.7% difference in ability given the odds, that doesn’t seem correct.
Brazil vs Netherlands is price at 2.32 goals with half a goal to Brazil. I don’t have a strong opinion on this one but instinct is telling me to look for an opportunity to lay Brazil. They haven’t come up against much yet and attitudes start to shift in the latter stages of a competition. Everybody knows they are only a couple of games away from glory. Should be an interesting match.
Uruguay vs Ghana is priced even tighter at 2.20 goals with half a goal to Uruguay. Forlan has been prominent in each game so far and seems on form, though I suspect lots of people would like Ghana to win. I think 2.20 goals is too low. Can’t wait for the Germany vs Argentina game!
Soderling vs Nadal – The ninth game
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 6th, 2010
What’s the significance of the ninth game?
In a competitive final you could expect both players to try and play out of their skin. But, you could also expect that both would try do avoid doing anything stupid in the first set. It’s important to get off to a good start, but it’s equally important not to blow it early on. So a game of cat and mouse, probing your opponent and holding serve, is a quite likely occurance in a big match.
If the match goes to 4-4 in the first set, then an opportunity will open up in the ninth game. At this point if you can break the serve of your opponent you then serve for the set. So stepping up your game, trying a few tight or tricky shots will pay expectional dividends in the ninth game. If the game is 30-30, you are only potentially two points away from being a set up. If your opponent sends the first serve out, then you can step inside the baseline and look to get only one point from your target. The ninth game is very significant given the right circumstances.
When Soderling and Nadal step out tomorrow if they reach the ninth game they will be priced at 1.30 and 4.30, pretty much the same as they started at. One set to Nadal would see him trade at 1.13, if it went to Soderling, Nadal would be 1.72. Look at yesterdays Womans final for evidence of what happens if that ninth game is broken.
While breaks of serve are important, some are more important that others. There are many similar points throughout a match. Put yourself in the players shoes and you will soon understand where they are.
Stosur vs Schiavoone - Break in the ninth
US Open tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 11th, 2009
I tend to perform better in the early parts of tournaments as I benefit exponentially from shocks. Also, as the tournament progresses, its easier to make mistakes in close matches. One thing that has caught my eye is the rain delayed match from last night. I think the Gonzalez / Nadal match has the possibility of throwing up some interesting characteristics when they return.
I have always been a fan of taking a position during enforced breaks or initiating one at least. It’s so important to stay in the zone when you are playing at such a high level of sport that an enforced break can often throw up opportunities. One to keep your eye on.
Classic final underway?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 1st, 2009
Odds on Federer after losing the first set
Currently watching some great tennis this morning at the Aussie open in Melbourne. I’d be happy to hit just one of these shots when I play tennis, let alone on each stroke. It’s generating some great trading opportunities as well. Unfortunately I have promised to take the kids swimming so I am likely to miss out.
As an example, when Nadal broke Federer in the first set the price moved out a fair bit, but this also left Nadal to serve for the set. He successfully served out this game. The move took the odds from 1.60 to 2.50 a move of 90 ticks. The logic on this type of trade was pretty easy to understand. If Federer won his game the odds would move in a little. If he lost, Nadal would serve for the set and you would get a significant move.
Over the last few years I have focused more and more on modelling Tennis and finally cracked all the detail last year. This makes it much easier to pinpoint key points when you can look ahead and see the odds and understand where the low risk trades are. But when you think about it, most of the areas are quite obvious. The only disadvantage you have without all the data is you may not understand just how much the odds are likely to move.