Posts Tagged nadal
Underneath a legendary Tennis match
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on January 30th, 2012
Not many words can describe the fantastic Men’s final at the Australian open tennis, so I wont try. But to say it was special, would definitely be an understatement. I started the match half dressed having not risen early enough to get changed properly, broke for a full Sunday lunch and still returned for a hour of excitement. Amazing stuff.
The great thing about these matches is that pretty much any trading strategy you adopt will win. If somebody goes from being a set up to a set down, or nearly a set down, you could have backed or laid either and had the opportunity to trade out at a profit. In this match it swung backwards and forwards on a number of occasions. In total, when I was active on the market, I counted 10 breaks of serve, excluding tie breaks.
At the start of the match you could back Djokovic for 1.71 and Nadal for 2.40. From there the start of each set had odds as follows: 2.28 & 1.74, 1.60 & 2.64, 1.14 & 7.8 then the final set started around 2′s as both players struggled into the sixth hour. If you would have laid Djokovic at his start price and got out at 2′s then laid again at your entry price to repeat the trade; you would have turned a trade at least seven times. This would have returned more than double your stake. Laying both at 1.16 would have worked as well returning an 84% profit on your stake. Timing either strategy would have increased your potential significantly.
I’ve put some charts on the forum, they wouldn’t fit on here. The Betfair charts are a bit ‘squashed’ and not linear, so these charts give a clearer picture of the match. In total £46.2m in matched bets were traded on the market, £42m in-play. Amazing stuff.
Bumps and ripples
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel, Tennis on January 26th, 2012
What can you tell about a Tennis match before it has started? Quite a lot actually.
The market is pretty accurate at discounting value into a match and assessing the relative strengths of different players, from that you can plot the most likely path through a match and its progression. You can also hunt for bumps and ripples in that path for odds that are most likely to be reached and how. If you do this, you will see that as a match progresses through various stages, certain odds are more likely than others. Of course this shifts as the match moves on, but if you look these values up before the start you can pick and target certain entry and exit points in advance and benefit from this foresight.
Here is a chart of today’s match between Federer and Nadal. I built it using Tennis Trader and it highlights, sometimes subtly, where some of these bumps and ripples are. On the axis you can see the frequency of occurance and on the x axis, the scoreline.
Well done Djokovic
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 3rd, 2011
Well played and and excellent job so far this year. A remarkable season so far, I wonder what heights he will reach this year?
I managed to call the final just right as it was easy to read and conformed to most entry and exit points. Wimbledon has been great this year. It’s probably the best tournament I have traded in terms of results and very few mistakes. This is rare, as you expect a few howlers through a grand slam.
Now the Tennis tour slowly rolls over the pond to the US. So some late night matches to focus on. I hope you had a good tournament.
Meanwhile
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 1st, 2011
OK, I’m still digesting the news a bit. But while I do that, there is still some great sport on.
The two Wimbledon semi finals are priced around the same level, 1.58 for the favourite, but we have two different contests IMHO.
The head-to-heads tell a different tale: -
Djokovic should be favourite, sure, but Tsonga leads Djokovic 5-2 in head to heads. Though this is the first time they’ve met on grass.
Nadal should also easily be the favourite but looks better value at the same price. Murray has only managed four wins in 15 encounters with Nadal and lost in straight sets to Nadal at this stage last year, and again recently in the French Open semi-finals.
Patriotic fervour and money may be behind a longer Nadal price but it doesn’t look justified. Of course at 2.68 it’s not impossible for Murray to win either, IF the odds are correct. However it seems we have two different matches on our hands despite the similar odds.
Federer loses French Open final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 5th, 2011
I’ve deliberately titled this post in a manner that is completely dissimilar to the current headlines out there. Well done to Nadal winning the French open; but if you look at the flow of the match from a statistical viewpoint, it was more like Federer who actually lost it in my opinion.
It was a fairly tight match, till the last set at least, 7-5, 7-6, 5-7, 6-1. You would expect the younger player of the two to do better in a tight match and the longer a match goes that has to be your leaning. Over all Nadal won 143 vs 130 points. For most the first set Federer was on top of the points tally, but the failure to close the set out was a real blow.
Set one and set two Nadal had 9 winners vs 15 & 18 from Federer; you can see Federer played some good shots. But the enforced error tally shows a different story. 17 for Nadal in the first two sets and 39 for Federer. For the third set Federer improved and the stats read 11/16 winners and 8/7 unforced errors, this set was farily even. But Federer couldn’t find any winners in the fourth and his error count went right back up. OK Nadal obviously had something to do with the way Federer played, but it was mainly errors on Federers behalf that cause the defeat. If you want a key to demolition job in the last set, Nadal’s return of Federers serve was at it’s peak at this point; he definately won that last set!
Now the Tennis circuit moves off clay and onto grass. Time for short points, power and the brutal servers to take centre stage.
Buying a toss of a coin
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 25th, 2011
Apart from the wild volatility, the thing I love about Tennis is the binary nature of the market. Like the toss of a coin there is only one decision to be made, heads or tails, will they wont they. Your decision making process is much easier and can be focused on some key points.
Yesterday I backed Isner at 160, he traded as low as 3.30 before going on to lose. At his ‘worst’ he traded at 200′s. It would have been a massive win had he gone on to get past the first round. He didn’t, but Nadal will need an easier match next time around to settle any nerves. On this post is a list of the odds at which I managed to catch the winner in other matches. These are not the highest odds they traded at, just the odds I backed them at before they went on to win. Not bad for a coin toss! Of course that’s not entirely true, most of these matches were not at evens before the off and there are others I back they just drifted away and out of the tournament but you don’t need many trades at big odds to make it worthwhile overall. Also if you back at big prices you can still trade out for a profit or smaller loss if they can’t close out the match.
Yesterday was a good day, but I’d be lucky to catch as many today. Fingers crossed!
Tennis / Mladenovic v Morita : Match Odds – 3.20
Tennis / Soler Espinosa v Vesnina : Match Odds – 10.00
Tennis / Larsson v Ivanovic : Match Odds – 13.00
Tennis / Querrey v Kohlschreiber : Match Odds – 7.00
Tennis / Clement v Volandri : Match Odds – 8.06
Tennis / Cibulkova v King : Match Odds – 14.00
Tennis / Almagro v Kubot : Match Odds – 27.00
Tennis / Erakovic v Rus : Match Odds – 4.60
Tennis / Roger Vasselin v Rosol : Match Odds – 4.20
French Open Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 24th, 2011
If the tournament continues like this it could be very memorable indeed. On Monday we saw the seeded Berdych crash out against a french qualifier. Andy Murray didn’t repeat the mistake today, but plenty of other big priced winners are coming in today.
Even if you oppose short priced favourites, thanks to the volatility in Tennis, the results can be excellent. Don’t forget to fire up Tennis Trader to check out your potential up or downside in each match before you trade.
Busy day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 7th, 2011
Looking forward to a busy day today.
Promotion and relegation battles will be settled on the football pitches today, that always throws up opportunities. There is nothing like career death to focus the mind of a highly paid footballer. I’m looking for an outside chance today. I’ll probably spread around my options to even things out. Did you know that Bet Angel can monitor and fire in bets across multiple markets almost simultaneously? This is ideal for football where matches go off all at once. If you want to you can get bets triggered at X minutes before the off or something similar. You can do this using Guardian and the Excel functions.
In Tennis at the Madrid open we have an intriguing match with Nadal at a very short price on his favourite surface to beat Federer. Perhaps there is an opportunity here or at least a clue to the rest of the season?
Plenty of of racing to hand as well but I doubt I will be doing the Kentucky Derby. I have tried and failed to get anything substantive for quite a few years on this. I’ll have another look today but I doubt it will yield much. In previous matched bet turnover has been pretty poor and that’s been the key problem.
Good luck whatever you are doing today!
Fireworks in Melbourne
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 26th, 2011
Happy Australia day to our antipodean users this morning!
Some decent late night / early morning activity in Melbourne this morning as an injured Nadal struggles to fight of Ferrer in his quarter final match. This could be a significant moment in the tournament, so tune in immediately to take advantage if you can. When the Australia day fireworks force a break in this game the trainer can treat Nadal and that could be a pivotal moment.
Good start to Tennis season
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 6th, 2011
In preparation for the Aussie open Tennis later this month I have been warming up on the Qatar open this week.
Best of three tournaments mean that the swings you can get can be very large and quick. If a heavy odds on favourite slips up or stutters, the response in the market will often be significant.
One of my favourite tactics, that I detailed here, is to lay a very short priced favourite in the hope that they slip up and the price starts to move out. This happened twice yesterday when very short odds on Federer and Nadal caused their price to jump out in response to some lacklustre displays. Nadal imploded at one point to lose a set 6-0, the first time in a couple of years. At least he has a fever to blame.
Of course laying at short odds willy nilly will not produce a profit in the long term. So I use Tennis trader, before the match has started, to work out what score will cause the odds to move and I nip in ahead of this potential. This allows me to maximise the upside while minimising the potential for loss. If it looks like it will not come off, I simply scratch the position or take a small loss. Because the odds are so short you can quite easily scratch when money buyers come in at very short odds to snap up ‘value’.
It’s been a good start, lets hope it continues.
Well done Nadal
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 14th, 2010
Well done to Rafa Nadal who completed a career grand slam this morning, UK time, at the US Open. He looked good value for the win, though I only stayed up till 11pm to watch it, but at that point the rain stopped play. I looked at the recording and spreadsheet data this morning for the part I missed. It didn’t appear to restart till 1am this morning.
It’s been a good trading tournament and I took forward my Wimbledon experiance by testing the market further using Tennis Trader. As a consequence, I’ve uncovered some new ideas I hadn’t thought of before. I’ll look to take those forward in the remainder of the Tennis season.
Last night Tennis trader highlighted a wonderful opportunity with Nadal serving at 1-2 in the second set. It pointed out a possible 12 tick move for laying Nadal, with only a two tick loss if he held. Nadal promptly lost his serve and the price moved out 12 ticks. I have a lot more confidence now when I am on a Tennis match, which fits in with my general approach to modelling a market thoroughly before participation. I am currently working on new models for new sports at the moment. Bear in mind, no matter what you model, you still have to anticipate and that’s a useful skill too!
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 16th, 2010
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I will be keep tabs on Blackpool.
Liverpool’s match against Arsenal was interesting and it played out pretty much as expected. Liverpool didn’t want to lose and neither did Arsenal. But Arsenal were lucky in the end to get the point. I still don’t think that Liverpool are title challengers.
Andy Murray did a fantastic job in defeating Nadal and Federer on his way to the title in Toronto. You shouldn’t read too much emphasis on this title. Most elite athletes will focus on key objectives. Nadal will be very focused on the US open in this tournament will have been a prep for that but not the real deal. Both Nadal and Federer will not be too disappointed at losing. But an excellent win nonetheless for Murray given his path to the title.
I got some kudos at the weekend for correctly predicting the result and score from Portsmouth vs Reading match. The local newspaper asked me to do a write up. So I guess I will be asked again until my luck runs out!
Reaching a climax
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 2nd, 2010
Excuse the double entendre but both Wimbledon and the World cup are now reaching the critical stages.
Both Nadal and Murray know that they have a great chance to win Wimbledon if they get through the semi final. That said, Berdych is on fire at the moment as I write this. I can’t help but think Murray’s price is a little low given his opponent. The market is telling us there is only a 2.7% difference in ability given the odds, that doesn’t seem correct.
Brazil vs Netherlands is price at 2.32 goals with half a goal to Brazil. I don’t have a strong opinion on this one but instinct is telling me to look for an opportunity to lay Brazil. They haven’t come up against much yet and attitudes start to shift in the latter stages of a competition. Everybody knows they are only a couple of games away from glory. Should be an interesting match.
Uruguay vs Ghana is priced even tighter at 2.20 goals with half a goal to Uruguay. Forlan has been prominent in each game so far and seems on form, though I suspect lots of people would like Ghana to win. I think 2.20 goals is too low. Can’t wait for the Germany vs Argentina game!
Soderling vs Nadal – The ninth game
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 6th, 2010
What’s the significance of the ninth game?
In a competitive final you could expect both players to try and play out of their skin. But, you could also expect that both would try do avoid doing anything stupid in the first set. It’s important to get off to a good start, but it’s equally important not to blow it early on. So a game of cat and mouse, probing your opponent and holding serve, is a quite likely occurance in a big match.
If the match goes to 4-4 in the first set, then an opportunity will open up in the ninth game. At this point if you can break the serve of your opponent you then serve for the set. So stepping up your game, trying a few tight or tricky shots will pay expectional dividends in the ninth game. If the game is 30-30, you are only potentially two points away from being a set up. If your opponent sends the first serve out, then you can step inside the baseline and look to get only one point from your target. The ninth game is very significant given the right circumstances.
When Soderling and Nadal step out tomorrow if they reach the ninth game they will be priced at 1.30 and 4.30, pretty much the same as they started at. One set to Nadal would see him trade at 1.13, if it went to Soderling, Nadal would be 1.72. Look at yesterdays Womans final for evidence of what happens if that ninth game is broken.
While breaks of serve are important, some are more important that others. There are many similar points throughout a match. Put yourself in the players shoes and you will soon understand where they are.
Stosur vs Schiavoone - Break in the ninth
US Open tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 11th, 2009
I tend to perform better in the early parts of tournaments as I benefit exponentially from shocks. Also, as the tournament progresses, its easier to make mistakes in close matches. One thing that has caught my eye is the rain delayed match from last night. I think the Gonzalez / Nadal match has the possibility of throwing up some interesting characteristics when they return.
I have always been a fan of taking a position during enforced breaks or initiating one at least. It’s so important to stay in the zone when you are playing at such a high level of sport that an enforced break can often throw up opportunities. One to keep your eye on.
Classic final underway?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 1st, 2009
Odds on Federer after losing the first set
Currently watching some great tennis this morning at the Aussie open in Melbourne. I’d be happy to hit just one of these shots when I play tennis, let alone on each stroke. It’s generating some great trading opportunities as well. Unfortunately I have promised to take the kids swimming so I am likely to miss out.
As an example, when Nadal broke Federer in the first set the price moved out a fair bit, but this also left Nadal to serve for the set. He successfully served out this game. The move took the odds from 1.60 to 2.50 a move of 90 ticks. The logic on this type of trade was pretty easy to understand. If Federer won his game the odds would move in a little. If he lost, Nadal would serve for the set and you would get a significant move.
Over the last few years I have focused more and more on modelling Tennis and finally cracked all the detail last year. This makes it much easier to pinpoint key points when you can look ahead and see the odds and understand where the low risk trades are. But when you think about it, most of the areas are quite obvious. The only disadvantage you have without all the data is you may not understand just how much the odds are likely to move.