Posts Tagged netherlands
Going Dutch
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 11th, 2010
This isn’t a pick! I think the Spanish have done a good job so far tactically and may test the Dutch defence in a way it hasn’t been tested so far this World Cup. This is a reference to what I will be aiming to do this afternoon. I have Dutchand German friends just round the corner from where I live, but as the German’s didn’t get to the final I will be going Dutch for the final. As I am unlikely to experience the thrill of watching England play for the greatest price there is in International football, so I may as well do it by proxy with a native supporter. It should be a fun afternoon.
The match is priced at 2.20 goals with a 0.36 goal advantage to the Spanish. I think that’s fair given the progress of both teams so far. I would have expected the market to price closer to 2.00 goals so I wonder if the draw could be value at this level. If you look at the stats home advantage is worth 0.40 of a goal so that effectively means it’s an even match but Spain are playing at home. If you don’t believe that, then Spain would be a value lay.
I won’t be trading the final as I will trying to get into the swing of things before the final.
Uruguay vs Netherlands
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 6th, 2010
I think you would have to fancy the Netherlands in this match, which the market is doing by one goal. But it is also pricing in very few goals, just short of 2.30. So the market summarises this as a tight match with the Dutch should win.
I would secretly like a Germany / Netherlands final as it would add some serious spice to the mix, but I suspect Uruguay will feel they have an equal chance. A lot rests on Forlan, with a couple of suspensions this makes the match a stiffer task than they would like. If they do win, it will probably be through tactical nous. At least we know how the last penalty would be taken!
How many times do I have to say 'Don't dive!'
Reaching a climax
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 2nd, 2010
Excuse the double entendre but both Wimbledon and the World cup are now reaching the critical stages.
Both Nadal and Murray know that they have a great chance to win Wimbledon if they get through the semi final. That said, Berdych is on fire at the moment as I write this. I can’t help but think Murray’s price is a little low given his opponent. The market is telling us there is only a 2.7% difference in ability given the odds, that doesn’t seem correct.
Brazil vs Netherlands is price at 2.32 goals with half a goal to Brazil. I don’t have a strong opinion on this one but instinct is telling me to look for an opportunity to lay Brazil. They haven’t come up against much yet and attitudes start to shift in the latter stages of a competition. Everybody knows they are only a couple of games away from glory. Should be an interesting match.
Uruguay vs Ghana is priced even tighter at 2.20 goals with half a goal to Uruguay. Forlan has been prominent in each game so far and seems on form, though I suspect lots of people would like Ghana to win. I think 2.20 goals is too low. Can’t wait for the Germany vs Argentina game!