Posts Tagged open
Underneath a legendary Tennis match
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on January 30th, 2012
Not many words can describe the fantastic Men’s final at the Australian open tennis, so I wont try. But to say it was special, would definitely be an understatement. I started the match half dressed having not risen early enough to get changed properly, broke for a full Sunday lunch and still returned for a hour of excitement. Amazing stuff.
The great thing about these matches is that pretty much any trading strategy you adopt will win. If somebody goes from being a set up to a set down, or nearly a set down, you could have backed or laid either and had the opportunity to trade out at a profit. In this match it swung backwards and forwards on a number of occasions. In total, when I was active on the market, I counted 10 breaks of serve, excluding tie breaks.
At the start of the match you could back Djokovic for 1.71 and Nadal for 2.40. From there the start of each set had odds as follows: 2.28 & 1.74, 1.60 & 2.64, 1.14 & 7.8 then the final set started around 2′s as both players struggled into the sixth hour. If you would have laid Djokovic at his start price and got out at 2′s then laid again at your entry price to repeat the trade; you would have turned a trade at least seven times. This would have returned more than double your stake. Laying both at 1.16 would have worked as well returning an 84% profit on your stake. Timing either strategy would have increased your potential significantly.
I’ve put some charts on the forum, they wouldn’t fit on here. The Betfair charts are a bit ‘squashed’ and not linear, so these charts give a clearer picture of the match. In total £46.2m in matched bets were traded on the market, £42m in-play. Amazing stuff.
Murray Matrix
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on January 16th, 2012
Looking forward to seeing Andy Murray in action tonight.
Last night I bagged 25 decent winning trades from the overnight matches. I use Tennis Trader to work out key points in a match and what odds are likely to be traded around key points. By looking up these key points in advance I can set up a trade that will trigger at or around those points and offset to a value that will lock in a profit. All markets exhibit a ‘harmonic mean’ around which all volatility gravitates. Understanding that allows you to put trades inside this envelope of volatility and get a decent trade away automatically. I’ll be doing the same again tonight and all the early round matches. I’ll be picking and choosing matches that I want to actively get involved in. Even if you mess around with the former strategy, you will learn a great deal about the market. I set up my trades early in the evening then turn them into keep bets to get matched when the game is underway. Doing this gets me to the front of the queue as well!
In the image you can see I am looking at a particular point in the market where Murray would trade and examing how many sets or games he would need be down / up to achieve that price. It’s possible to work out all combinations of scores and how they can be reached and pitch your trade at a common point by doing this.
Open Source
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 17th, 2011
Continuing my theme of getting more involved in sports rather than just trading them I am headed of to Royal St’ Georges today for the final day of the open golf. I’ll be able to see what it looks like at source. I hope it doesn’t rain too much.
No mobile phones or PDA’s allowed on the course, so no greensiding possible! I’ll just have to enjoy the day.
Open golf – Best trades
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 16th, 2011
For a full list and other lists, visit the forum.
The Open has been brilliant so far. The highlight today was the hole in one by Tom Watson, amazing. When my shoulder is better I’m getting out there again to reduce my handicap. It’s inspiring to see a 61 year old holding his own against the worlds top golfers.
This is the last list now as we turn our attention to specific golfers for the remaining two days. The weather is going to turn real horrible for the remaining days, so it’s fingers on the lay button and the hunt is on for the golfers who can play low accurate shots, or who are just plain lucky!
These are the top ten returns for £10 stakes from the start of the tournament to the cut.
Lucas Glover – 600 to 18.5 – £314.32
Thomas Bjorn – 600 to 27 – £212.22
Chad Campbell – 500 to 34 – £137.06
Miguel Angel Jimenez – 290 to 20 – £135
Darren Clarke – 220 to 17.5 – £115.71
Tom Lehman – 700 to 90 – £67.78
Anders Hansen – 260 to 38 – £58.42
Pablo Larrazabal – 400 to 60 – £56.67
George Coetzee – 280 to 55 – £40.91
Dustin Johnson – 95 to 21 – £35.24
Big moves
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 15th, 2011
I thought the first day of the Open Golf at Sandwich would be interesting and that’s exactly how it has proved. For a full list of movers visit the thread on the forum.
Golf has really grown on me as a trading sport and the small gap between the leader-board and oblivion creates some fantastic opportunities. With a £10 stake this is what you could have greened up for on the top movers at the end of day one. Plenty of room for manoeuvre, mistakes and a few losses elsewhere.
Thomas Bjorn – 600 to 25 – £230
Lucas Glover – 340 to 28 – £111.43
Tom Lewis – 520 to 44 – £108.18
Miguel Angel Jimenez – 290 to 34 – £75.29
Kyle Stanley – 560 to 110 – £40.91
Webb Simpson – 160 to 32 – £40
Ricky Barnes – 370 to 90 – £31.11
Pablo Larrazabal – 400 to 100 – £30
Darren Clarke – 220 to 55 – £30
Fredrik Andersson Hed – 420 to 110 – £28.18
The Open Championship
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 11th, 2011
Had my first really detailed look at the Open today. McIlroy has drifted a bit since my first casual glance and that makes for a much more interesting market.
I tend to have a good go at the majors unless there is a very short priced favourite, so the drift on McIlroy is welcome. The weather forecast is mixed for later in the week so that increases my interest. I will probably be heading over to Kent on Sunday so I am looking to take a position to trade off before then. I don’t have any strong opinions at the moment but I am active in the market and will let you know if I find anything interesting.
If you want some background, here is an interesting overview: -
http://www.espn.co.uk/golf/sport/story/100409.html
New balls please
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 1st, 2011
One of the key stories going into the French open was the fact they were going to use a new ball type. I sort of guessed this may lead to a few suprises, but it realistically is going to take the whole tournament to work out if it really made much difference. It’s certainly added a few variables to things. This is an interesting article discussing this very point: -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520804576341380613199152.html
Murray Worry
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 28th, 2011
The sign of a true champion is the ability to overcome the impossible. While I’m not suggesting that Murray will win the title at Roland Garros, he certainly showed today that he’s got the guts. After turning over his ankle during the match, his price shot out after people started fearing a retirement. He had already traded at 1.01 adding to the pressure to push the price out.
Murray had his ankle strapped, Dug down deep and got on to close out the match well. An excellent job when he was obviously struggling. This graph is a good illustration of the difficulty of using Betfair grafts to accurately plot trends. On the far left as the price approaches 1.01. This is halfway through the match, the second half of the match as the remaining 90% of the graph!
Here’s a tip: -
If you load matches of interest into Guardian, Bet Angel will store and plot information for each of these matches in real-time. You can then use the advanced charting to look at an accurate graph of historic data. You can do this on any sport.
Looking forward to the second week of Tennis in France.
Good day all round
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 27th, 2011
While the afternoon racing yesterday was a complete farce – shame on you racing, the evening card was much more interesting, enjoyable and full of opportunity. On the horses I managed more than double yesterday, which was a good result.
At Roland Garros the tennis was proving brilliant yesterday as well. With the wind howling around the courts it threw up lots of oppotunity. Some high profile slip ups generated some excellent opportunties. Congratulations to the person who backed Rus at 980 on her way to defeating Clijsters!! My back at 23 is piddling in comparison.
I am experimenting with a new strategy at Roland Garros on top of my normal activity and that is proving very insightful. I am using Tennis trader to look up odds offset from the starting price but at scorelines that are not unreasonable to expect. I am then asking for those odds before the match has started, meaning I am in front of the queue when the time comes. I am hitting around a 70% strike rate at the moment and achieving pretty reasonable trading results. It’s looking promising.
Quieter day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 26th, 2011
It was a quiet day yesterday at Roland Garros. Only five matches really caught my attention compared to nine the day before. With the wind blowing around a lot today I feel we could see some unexpected results today.
I had a more productive day on the horse racing and I am looking forward to the meeting at Sandown tonight, but the afternoon card looks a bit of a farce to be honest! Only ten runners in total in the the first three races?!?!?
Buying a toss of a coin
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 25th, 2011
Apart from the wild volatility, the thing I love about Tennis is the binary nature of the market. Like the toss of a coin there is only one decision to be made, heads or tails, will they wont they. Your decision making process is much easier and can be focused on some key points.
Yesterday I backed Isner at 160, he traded as low as 3.30 before going on to lose. At his ‘worst’ he traded at 200′s. It would have been a massive win had he gone on to get past the first round. He didn’t, but Nadal will need an easier match next time around to settle any nerves. On this post is a list of the odds at which I managed to catch the winner in other matches. These are not the highest odds they traded at, just the odds I backed them at before they went on to win. Not bad for a coin toss! Of course that’s not entirely true, most of these matches were not at evens before the off and there are others I back they just drifted away and out of the tournament but you don’t need many trades at big odds to make it worthwhile overall. Also if you back at big prices you can still trade out for a profit or smaller loss if they can’t close out the match.
Yesterday was a good day, but I’d be lucky to catch as many today. Fingers crossed!
Tennis / Mladenovic v Morita : Match Odds – 3.20
Tennis / Soler Espinosa v Vesnina : Match Odds – 10.00
Tennis / Larsson v Ivanovic : Match Odds – 13.00
Tennis / Querrey v Kohlschreiber : Match Odds – 7.00
Tennis / Clement v Volandri : Match Odds – 8.06
Tennis / Cibulkova v King : Match Odds – 14.00
Tennis / Almagro v Kubot : Match Odds – 27.00
Tennis / Erakovic v Rus : Match Odds – 4.60
Tennis / Roger Vasselin v Rosol : Match Odds – 4.20
French Open Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 24th, 2011
If the tournament continues like this it could be very memorable indeed. On Monday we saw the seeded Berdych crash out against a french qualifier. Andy Murray didn’t repeat the mistake today, but plenty of other big priced winners are coming in today.
Even if you oppose short priced favourites, thanks to the volatility in Tennis, the results can be excellent. Don’t forget to fire up Tennis Trader to check out your potential up or downside in each match before you trade.
Murray match in charts
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 28th, 2011
If you want an insight into how odds move in a Tennis match we will be posting up charts at key points of the Ferrer vs Murray Austrailian open semi final today.
To view the charts, click here to read the thread on the forum.
Aussie open tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 18th, 2011
Looking forward to getting stuck into the Tennis this morning. I’ve had a delayed start to the Open as I was unable to do anything on the first day due to other commitments. Plenty of opportunity abounds in the tournament. The good thing about this grand slam is that you can trade it first thing in the morning, leaving the rest of the day for other sports.
It was this time last year that I used the Aussie Open for final testing on Tennis Trader. It was an important time, because it was the first time that we used decent sums of money to put our money where our mouth was.
This was important, as the only time I feel comfortable trading is if I know roughly where the odds are going to go. Using that methodology you can ‘frame’ your up and downside risk and take more risk overall. This will lead to more confidence and better results. I admit that I find it difficult to actively participate in a market where I am not confident of knowing the market like this, so Tennis trader was an important step achieving the things I need to in these markets.
If you haven’t participated in Tennis before the Aussie open is a good chance to do so without interfering with other markets. So dust off your mouses and give it a try.
Another big price winner
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 19th, 2010
I am really starting to like Golf as a trading medium.
I tend to carefully model sports before getting deeply involved with them. Doing that allows me to test the up and downside limits to a strategy and that in turn allows me to know what I need to do to be successful. I tend to hunt for the downside to any strategy as that allows me to frame it at which point it clearly defines the upside for me. This is why I often suggest that people trade at random. If your random losses are X and your strike rate Y then you immediately know what you need to do to profit. If you can’t get near that metric, you either need to start again or think of a new way into the market.
Golf is tricky to model. Players heading off at different times, playing on different difficulties of holes. But for anybody that has played golf, one characteristic stands out. One good shot can make a good round and one bad shot can ruin in. These characteristics can send players rocketing up or down the leader-board.
The practical upshot of this is that big outsiders can shorten quickly and short prices can lengthen quickly. This seems to throw up some really big priced winners. Last year in the Open Championship we had Cink, an 800 shot, battling Watson, a 1000 shot, in a play off. This year the unknown Oosthuizen romped home at 490!
If I would have let my bet on Oosthuizen stand I would have made a small fortune, but I just find it impossible not to approach every market without carefully planning out my approach. As a consequence there were others I backed and I also laid off some of the substantial potential on Oosthuizen. Being a relative rookie I did expect him to crumble a bit under the pressure, but Oosthuizen did a great job of playing percentage golf over the weekend and with such a gap to the other contenders it was the right thing to do. The others couldn’t have any impact without taking risk and than ultimately led to mistakes.
Overall, a good tournament. Just itching for the next one now!
Wel gedaan!
Time to sit back and enjoy
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 17th, 2010
With the hard work out of the way on the Golf, it’s now time to sit back and enjoy the weekend play. With plenty of profit in the bank I can take some speculative positions without too much worry and don’t have to watch the market like a hawk. I hope the weekend produces a thrilling climax to the tournament.
Open golf day two
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 16th, 2010
Here is the list of my best backs from the open. Oosthuzien is the best having crashed in from 490 to just 14′s this morning. This means for my ‘massive’ £4.25 stake I can green up for near on £150 on just Oosthuizen. Daly touched teens early on as well. Three of these bets are on the top ten ‘odds leaderboard’ so its been a cracking start. Would have been even better if some of the shorter prices had blown up, but there are still quite a few that have slipped out of contention. Roll on the cut!
Classic battle underway in Melbourne
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 30th, 2009
With the weather messing around with the horse racing again its great to see a real battle under way in the Aussie open Tennis. The two Spaniards just don’t want to give up on this one and it’s gone to a fifth set. With such a close match you will get massive swings in the final set, often for little risk so it’s worth keeping an eye on progress in between the fits and starts of the racing.
Murray at the aussie open
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 22nd, 2009
I haven’t been able to do much on the open for obvious reasons but have been following it as best I can. It’s a real shame as I have continued working on Tennis for some time now and I planned to let rip on the open. That will have to wait for now.
At the start of the tournament I wrote down the rankings of the players Murray was likely to play. So far it’s spot on, here is the list: -
R1 1140
R2 84
R3 31
R4 14
QF 5
SF 1
TF 2
He was pretty much 1.01 to win the first, 1.02 for the second and now 1.07 for the third round. From here on in, things get a bit more tricky. He would likely end up playing Nadal in the semis and Federer in the final.
For the full draw, click here.