Posts Tagged portsmouth
FA Cup Final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 15th, 2010
A curious one this year. Chelsea are on for the double and will surely try their best to get it. Pompey have performed miracles to get the final and wont want to lose it. Chelsea are at a very short price so I’d be nervous mopping up at that price.
Curiously we have profiled this match and it has come out very similar to the Chelsea vs Stoke match on the 25/4/10. Of course Chelsea won this 7-0! All similar matches were easy wins for the stronger side, no surprise there. If you tweak the parameters a bit you end up with B Munich vs Hannover which also ended up 7-0, Barcelona vs Malaga 6-0 and Real Madrid vs Zaragoza which was also 6-0. The market is pricing in 3.20 goals and 2.60 of them to Chelsea. There have been a few draws here and there but the market is discounting a very one sided final which shouldn’t be a surprise considering it’s top vs bottom. I guess the only real comparison you can point at would be Man U vs Milwall a few years ago which ended 3-0 but even that isn’t a direct comparison.
I’m probably going to go for trading any unquoted on this match. I can’t see Chelsea letting this slip, but it is a cup final and Pompey have had a bit of a fairytale route to the final, so a bit of money on big outside odds probably isn’t a terrible idea.
Portsmouth go into administration
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 26th, 2010
Further to my post some time ago Portsmouth officially went into administration this afternoon and almost certain relegation. Hopefully you jumped on board following my post a little while ago. One of the lowest risk trades of the season!
While it’s not pleasant to see clubs get into trouble, the economics of football are astonishing. It’s quite amazing to see how poor the economics of most clubs are, but even the top teams are not in a very good shape. LBO’s put a huge burden on clubs and drain resources as people borrow money from the future to pay for success today. The problem is that while money does, generally, buy success. In an effort to keep up new teams join in card game and up the ante. This makes the return on investment and general economics decline overall. It’s not a viable path long term.
I remember watching my local team when I was young and the feeling then was that, on their day, your team could beat anybody. The feeling now is if your team isn’t £10bn in debt then they have no hope of challenging for any honours. I also would see local players on the pitch that had come through the youth system, this fuelled the dream that maybe one day I could be out there as well. I don’t believe that is remotely realistic nowadays. I think both points have taken the soul out of football as a grass roots level, that’s not the best way to encourage future generations.
Will it change? I doubt it!
FA CUP fifth round
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 13th, 2010
I like the later stages of knockout competitions. There is lots to play for and when a goal down and ten minutes are left , it’s all or nothing. These are the places you not only find value but plenty of opportunity and teams playing out of their skin, I love it! Wembley stadium is only a few games away today and anything can happen.
I’ve checked through the odds and nothing wierd has been thrown up. But consider the general picture if you are going to have a play today. With Chelsea and Man City at home it would be a shock to see an upset there, but you may want to be with Stoke if you are looking for one. They have nothing to lose and Man City seem a little fragile. Backing Chelsea at 1.16 is more of a punt than a trade, so look to secondary markets for an opportunity. Cardiff will probably fight a rearguard action and hope to nick something on the break.
Derby, Reading and Southampton are all matches with similar traits. Weaker team playing at home with strong away teams. Both Reading and Southampton will fancy their chances but I’m not so sure about Derby. These matches will probably be played with caution by the stronger away team who don’t want to concede and give the home side an advantage. So I suspect not making mistakes will be the order of the day for the away sides. The longer the match goes on the more the quality should show. An early goal by either side will upset the apple cart.
Both Derby and Southampton’s matches are priced in as low scoring affairs, with little advantage to either side. Usually these matches turn out to scrappy draws. I think the price on the draw should be a little shorter.
Whatever happens, I’ll be on the lookout for late goals, as that is the key characteristic of knockout competitions.
Ratings: -
Chelsea vs. Cardiff Goals: 3.4 Supremacy: 2.8
Man City vs. Stoke Goals: 2.8 Supremacy: 1.8
Reading vs. West Brom Goals: 2.7 Supremacy: -0.1
Southampton vs. Portsmouth Goals: 2.5 Supremacy: -0.1
Derby vs. Birmingham Goals: 2.4 Supremacy: -0.2
Couldn’t make it up
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 24th, 2010
One tie looks set to light up what otherwise appears to be a dull and predictable fifth round FA Cup draw.
I waited with baited breath knowing that there were a few ties that could produce a classic cup match, but was amazed when the one top of my list occurred, Southampton vs Porstmouth. I couldn’t believe it!
This should be a real classic fifth round tie. Local derby, quite a history behind this fixture and a perfect set up. One team seemingly in inexorable decline and another who suffered the same fate now back on the march with full confidence. I’m too close on this one to get involved, as loyaltes will get in the way of sound judgement. But it’s looking set up for an excellent fifth round battle.
Portsmouth – To be relegated
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 19th, 2010
I’ve had a lot of fun on this market in the past and there is another potential opportunity. Portsmouth already looked pretty doomed given their position at the bottom of the table at this time of year. On top of that you have players low on confidence and a financial position that is, at best, precarious. At 1.30′s that information seems to already be discounted into the market.
But, HMRC has now been given the go ahead for their winding up hearing to take place on 10th February. If successfully the club could go into administration and possible points deductions could consign them to relegation. Also, as the weeks pass the price with come in anyhow.
Of course, new investment could also occur and save the club, but it’s worth a look.
FA Cup shock
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 12th, 2010
Just watched Coventry take the lead against Portsmouth and the commentator said, ‘The shock is on’.
Portsmouth are not exactly on fire and I think Coventry will fancy their chances. In contrast Portsmouth are really low on morale and just don’t look up for it. The odds seem to fairly reflect that as they are pricing in an even match, so hardly a shock in my books if Coventry win.
A little tit bit for you. Steve Claridge helping commentate this evening on five live, I used to go to the same school as Steve! I used to play in the school football team, alas, I never became a professional footballer. I think I would have enjoyed that.