Posts Tagged premier league
It’s all kicking off!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 13th, 2011
Yes the premier league is back. Twenty teams, OK maybe four, well maybe three battle it out for the greatest honour in football…. Who will sack their manager first!
As I have mentioned in previous posts the market tends to inefficient at the start of the season. I looked back over the two months at the start of last season to see what happened last year.
The first thing to note is that the market got the number of goals scored pretty much spot on. On average there were 2.72 goals scored per match over this period, this was against a forecast of 2.72 goals. So little value was created there. Home wins were forecast at 48% and came in at 47%, so not much there after commission (especially 60%). However, the predominant characteristic at the start of last season surround away teams.
Away wins were forecast by the market to arrive 26.6% of the time in the first two months but only occurred 20.7% of the time. Draws were forecast 25.5% of the time but occured a whopping 32.3% of the time. So if you were looking for value last season, that was were to find it. To qualify that and to see if it will repeat this season, you also need to answer the ‘why’ question.
New Videos
Don’t forget to fire up Soccer Mystic (see video) to have a look at matches you are likely to trade. While it can’t be 100% accurate it will give you plenty of ideas on where odds are likely to be and should fire up your imagination for some strategies.
You may not have considered a couple of unique ways in which you can use Bet Angel to trade, analyse or bet on football matches. So watch the following videos to see: -
How to connect multiple markets to one workbook on your spreadsheet
How to connect multiple football matches to one spreadsheet for trading simultaneously
Use the subscribe button on the channel home page to automatically get updated when new videos are uploaded.
£174m
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 11th, 2011
The Deloitte football report is out and makes continued interesting reading. The current austerity in the western world doesn’t seem to have affected football. Their finances are as bad as ever but the players get paid more in a week than a group of the fans could reasonably expected to earn in a year. The clamour for ‘talent’ continues unabated.
There are some very interesting bits in the report. Manchester United spent 46% of its revenue on pay, but rivals Manchester City splashed out a massive 107%. Top of the wages league is Chelsea with £174m, last years wage figures are shown in brackets.
- Chelsea – £174m (£167m)
- Man City – £133m (£83m)
- Man Utd – £132m (£123m)
- Liverpool – £121m (£107m)
- Arsenal – £111m (£104m)
The report noted a couple of key findings that I found interesting.
“The problem is with the middle tier of clubs, those who are neither chasing a Uefa place or facing relegation,” said Mr Jones. It appears the wage bill in these clubs is unsustainable in relation to the revenue they generate. Overall the 92 league clubs as a whole lose money on their day-to-day operations – and at the pre-tax level, losses have continued to grow, hitting £600m in 2009-10. For some more info and graphs visit the following link: -
Premier league darts
Posted by Peter Webb in Darts on March 4th, 2011
I know I’ve mentioned this a few times recently but the darts markets are growing on me rapidly for a number of reasons. Generally it is because matches take place over a short period of time but display characteristics similar to other markets.
Last night we saw Phil Taylor take on RayVan Barneveld and there were two obvious trades. Taylor got off to a good start and was worth backing from the off. 6-0 up at the break and trading at very short odds, quite rightly, it was worth laying some money off and going overweight on a comeback. Barneveld saw off the whitewash to push Taylor’s odds out to 1.20′s but the gap was too big and Taylor only needed a small run to close out the win.
A good trading match. Keep your eye on this interesting market. Premier league darts is every Thursday night.
Doing darts
Posted by Peter Webb in Darts on February 25th, 2011
Sat here the other evening watching the premier league darts and suddenly realised what I am looking at is actually pretty similar to other sports in the way it is scored and played. The format of the premier league darts is also interesting with the introduction of the draw.
The underlying feeling and the way the odds move is fairly similar to other sports and can surely be traded in a similar manner. A huge benefit of course, is that darts is quite a quick game and therefore it’s very attractive as a trading market. Volumes seem pretty decent as well.
The premier league darts has really caught my interest and it’s an area I plan to do some more work in over the period of this tournament.
The impact of transfers
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 5th, 2011
Back before the start of the season I tipped a number of teams to struggle and managers likely to leave their jobs, by and large I have been spot on. A couple of surprises, but come the end of the season I’d should be well up on the deal over the course of the season. So, how did I find these opportunities? Just one word, money!
That money makes the world go around is true and none more so in the world of football. The net effect of transfers should be to increase the performance of teams in the long term. However, we all know that just chucking together good players isn’t enough and you need a good manager to get them to work together well.
Torres is no doubt a fine player but his confidence has evaporated recently and his move away from Anfield was probably the right one. Will it galvanize Chelsea? That is another question altogether as its over to Ancelloti to make that happen. I’m not so convinced he can keep all these star players firing. Will paying £35m for Carroll be a wise investment or just a wild punt? Much will depend on if ‘King Kenny’s’ management style is suitable for the modern game.
Meanwhile over at Man Utd, Ferguson is in the increasingly usual position of not having as much money to splash about as other teams. This means he needs to draw on his management experience to make things happen. His pedigree to do this is undisputed. You also have this interesting ‘confirmation effect’ at the moment in the Man Utd team. Unbeaten this season and chasing that down has added extra belief and incentive into the team. The champions league will be key to the elite teams confidence.
So, given all the spending I reckon we are in line for an ‘as you are’ period. All things are relative, including spending. One teams buy is likely to negate the others. The top teams are likely to continue to be out of the reach of aspiring mid div’s.
My focus in now on the bottom of the table where an interesting end to the season is almost assured.
The new Torres?
Pub landlady wins EU case
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 4th, 2011
Venues showing live Premier League matches from foreign broadcasters are not breaking EU law, court advised.
Full story here: -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/feb/03/eu-law-sports-rights
This could make a big change in the financing of the premier league.
Football’s turn for an ouch!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 6th, 2010
Bolton score against Spurs, so you would expect the odds to move a bit. However, you wouldn’t expect Spurs to get backed into 1.59; but that’s what happened! I suspect somebody sorted the odds in the wrong order or just had the wrong selection up some how and back heavily on the goal.
Bolton won 4-2 so no get out of jail card was served on this occasion. £77,809 was matched at 1.59.
Merseyside Derby
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 17th, 2010
How tantalising is this match!
I’m not sure if I have seen a better set up for this Derby in all my years of following football. Passions will be high and both teams will be desperate for a win. Neither team can really afford to lose, but recent stats favour the home team. Everton have won 9/13 home fixtures while Liverpool have won just 1/12 away fixtures. Given various circumstances I suspect this will be a draw. This is much more likely given that it is a derby match. It’s pretty even all round on the markets, nobody is risking any decisive pricing.
When you look at the market, it has basically priced in a 1-1 draw, plumping for a match with just over 2 goals on average and a slight advantage to Everton. This makes it difficult to put a firm strategy forward until the match gets underway.
Should be a good match to watch anyhow.
TV rights to do a Bosman?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 4th, 2010
An important case taking place this week in the European courts of justice. If successful the case could led to a deterioration of the money coming into UK football. I suspect there will be many battles to follow if the ruling goes against the premier league.
You can’t help but feel sympathy for people in one territory who are forced to pay much higher costs just because of a line drawn on a map. Given the mobility of information in the modern world, I don’t think this is a situation that can remain tje same in the long term future, whatever the reasons for or against.
Full story: -
How much!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 17th, 2010
It was interesting to read this article today which details just how much money each premiership club collects each year.
It’s amazing to think that any club could go into administration with so much money being dished out each year. Couple this with parachute payments and it seems that the premier league is clearly set to pull away from the old football league in terms of development. There is an interesting graphic here that clearly illustrates the amount of the money handed out.
You should read this in conjunction with an older article here. A stark contrast to when the premier league started. Back then, in the 92/93 season, Nottingham Forest were relegated and received £37,055 for their troubles. This year Portsmouth received nearly £32m for the same feat! Money paid out has risen from nearly £10m back then, to an astonishing £160m in 2010.