Last night I forecasted around 24 goals and we ended up with 22. I should have used a decimal place as my spreadsheet actually said 23.5, but forecasting half a goal often doesn’t make sense to some readers! Tonight I am aiming for 22.75 and we have a generally more competitive set up for the matches tonight. Dortmund caught my eye on the last round and I’ll be looking closely at their match with Real Madrid this evening. I’m not convinced …
I’ve had quite a good week on the footy without really trying. That’s nice!
I am experimenting with some new pre-off stuff this week as well. Mixed results so far, but it does seem to be working, just not on the scale I need.
This evening there are loads of matches and as you may know I quite like the double bite of the cherry that is the Europa league. My attention is draw to the highest volume match of …
Should be an interesting evening of action tonight. Man City should beat Villareal and Man Utd should beat Otgoeoifosadufnoid or whatever they are called. Both teams have no wins so far in this stage of the campaign. Some of the ‘feature’ matches are quite uncompetitive which is disappointing but there is still a lot to play for in individual ties. Some teams will fancy a potential giant killing.
I won’t be trading this evening as I will out watching some …
How pleasurable that we pretty much nailed the matches last night. 23 goals forecast and 23 scored. We also had the “right sort of slope” to the forecast with, generally, the higher scoring matches at the top of the curve and lower scoring ones to the right. It was a night set of results and some great matches last night.
This evening looks similar in terms of the goal tally and here are the rankings from most to least goals: …
Don’t forget to use Soccer Mystic to have a good look at each match yourself!
In hindsight I’ve been too optimistic this week in the champions league. What I have learnt so far is that some teams have not settled into European competition yet and others have been a bit cautious; this is surprising in the group stages. Biggest surprise was to see Inter lose last night!
I like the Europa league as you get two bites at the cherry …
Nice result on the Barcelona match last night! Our top four goal ranks produced three over 2.5 goal matches and the bottom four three under 2.5 goal matches. I would have estimated four matches would be likely to reach >2.5 but there were only three. I would lean on the side of lots more goals than normal this evening and therefore overs are in-play and unders at risk this evening.
Because this evening’s matches should produce more goals I would …
An interesting bunch of matches tonight and I reckon they will throw up, on average, around 21/22 goals as a group. Don’t forget to fire up Soccer Mystic for a good look at these matches.
I’d rank most to least goals as: -
Barcelona vs. AC Milan
Porto vs. Shakhtar
Genk vs. Valencia
Chelsea vs. Leverkusen
Dortmund vs. Arsenal
Plzen vs. BATE Borisov
APOEL vs. Zenit St Petersburg
Olympiakos vs. Marseille
I’m intrigued by the Barcelona and Dortmund match. Are …
Twelve matches and I reckon there should be around 33/34 goals. It’s tougher at this stage of the tournament as incentives to score can vary and so can the strength of teams put out. So I tend to be less confident at this stage of the tournament. The knockout phase usually brings out better motivation in players.
The three matches I’d be most likely to lean on over 2.5 goals are Stuttgart, Lille and Anderlecht.
The three matches I’d be …
Just put these on the forum.
It looks like the football will be one of few sports going ahead today, so I may as well make the most of it. We have been very close consistently on the goals tally but this evening poses a few problems given the increased importance of some of the matches. Early goals will most likely produce more goals than forecast due to the incentive to score.…
An excellent result from last night when we chose to oppose Chelsea to start and got the goal forecast spot on!
I would forecast 22/23 goals this evening. I am paying a lot of attention to the Tottenham match this evening. Spurs have a big incentive to win and market seems to be pricing that in. But my contrary side is nudging me towards Spurs making hard work of it, so I am going to try and find an opportunity …
From most to least goals: -
Chelsea vs. Zilina
FC Basel vs. CFR Cluj
Ajax vs. Real Madrid
Roma vs. B Munich
Braga vs. Arsenal
Partizan Belgrade vs. Shakhtar
Auxerre vs. AC Milan
I will forecast around 20 goals this evening. Final matches in the group stages can be tricky as managers often send out weaker teams. Chelsea should beat Zilina but may be a little short at 1.17 to win, intially. It all depends what team they put out.…
Tonights ratings from most to least goals: -
Most point to overs tonight and I would forecast 64 goals this evening.
PSV v Debrecen
Sevilla v Karpaty
OB v Young Boys
Porto v Besiktas
Leverkusen v Aris Thes.
Juventus v Red Bull Salzburg
Gent v Sp Lisbon
Lausanne v Sparta Prague
Dinamo Kiev v Az Alkmaar
Lech Poznan v Man City
Rosenborg v Atl Madrid
Rapid Vienna v CSKA Sofia
Hajduk Split v Zenit St Petersburg
Getafe v Stuttgart
This evenings matches are much tighter and difficult to read. Shakhtar / Arsenal for example, if Arsenal were at home much easier. Most matches look pretty even to be honest, apart from the obvious win for Chelsea. For tonight I would forecast 21/22 goals in total.
If you look back through the blog at recent ratings, you will see we have been very close a lot of time and generally nail the lowest scoring match. The more matches there are …
Most goals to least: -
FC Copenhagen vs Barcelona
Valencia vs Rangers
Tottenham vs Inter
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Schalke
Benfica vs Lyon
Bursaspor vs Man Utd
Rubin Kazan vs Panathinaikos
A total of 18/19 goals forecast for this evening.
(Sorry for the edit but I included another match by accident and didn’t cover one other)…
Great night of Champions league football last night and an evening that pretty much went as expected. We came out with 20 goals versus the 23 I forecast.
The Europa league is much more open and I reckon there could be as many as 62 goals this evening. With the Europa league spilt across two start times this presents quite a few opportunities and I am sure a few quality positions will occur this evening. I expect there to be …
Here is my assessment of this evenings matches. This evenings matches are not that inspiring to be honest, so I am looking for some clear cut positions on what will probably be a quiet night for me. You can see from the ratings that the Chelsea match clearly stands out from this evenings offerings.
Least goals to most: -
Spartak Moscow v Chelsea
Braga v Partizan Belgrade
Ajax v Auxerre
Real Madrid v AC Milan
Arsenal v Shakhtar
Marseille v …
I’ve often posted up ratings so thought I would explain something about them. My ratings come for many years of research and are designed to shape the way I will participate in a match. People who have attended talks I have done about football, would probably get most value from them to be honest. Over time I’ve managed to get ratings accurate to a fraction of a percent over the course of a season. But it’s important to understand that, …