Posts Tagged real madrid
Forgone conclusion?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 3rd, 2011
You can’t help but think, like the rest of the community, that the two champions league semi finals are forgone conclusions. I looked at the weekend markets and curiously all teams lost, so no clues in there. But it was possible to start opposing Man Utd after it dawned to me that they may have half an eye on the semi final.
The market is discounting a win by one goal for Barcelona tonight but much depends on whether Real Madrid throw the kitchen sink at them. They need at least a goal and that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons. I remember the famous Mourinho draw at Old Trafford that put Man Utd out a few years ago. I’m going to try and work some money into the market and go for an outside chance. I’ll likely know by half time whether this is likely or not.
Man Utd don’t have the strongest team of recent years but should be able to get past Schalke. There performance was a bit tepid over the weekend but, looking at the stats, were a little unlucky to lose against Arsenal. I think this semi final is a little more favouable to Utd. If the do progress they a have lot to worry about when it comes to the final and the league run in will not be helpful.
Strange things can happen in knockout competitions
Farcelona
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 28th, 2011
That was the word on the street after the sending off last night. It seems a common trait to dislike success, but you can’t escape the fact that Barcelona have proved on many occasions that they are by far the best team in the tournament and did so again last night. It’s just such a shame they have often degraded their performances with gamesmanship.
It’s also a shame that the first leg was a duplicate of the other semi final, as they both are now set up for uncompetitive second legs. That will reduce the ability to get a decent trade away on either. It’s unfortunate that the early rounds threw up so much opportunity, but the later rounds have done little. I lost money last night but much less than I made on the other semi final. You can’t win them all!
Still, here’s looking forward to a Man Utd vs Barcelona final. I think this would be intriguing as, while it is at a neutral venue, Man Utd will practically be at home I suspect. It will be interesting to see how the stats discount this into a price for the final. That’s what I am keeping my eye on now.
Sending off offence?
Dropa del rey
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 21st, 2011
Look at this image. Police men, firemen, bus stopped, everybody rushing to aid the dire situation at hand. Looks nasty, but infact it wasn’t a pedestrian under the wheels of this bus, it was the Copa del rey! For a video of the most entertaining part of this 0-0 draw view the following: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/13155619.stm
Nothing’s impossible
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 13th, 2011
That has to be the message that Harry Redknapp will send to his team this evening. But just what chance does he have?
When you can lay Real Madrid at 1.02 to qualify, so the market thinks Harry has less than a 2% chance. But memories are still fresh for me with that remarkable run Middlesbrough had in the UEFA cup a few years ago.
Spurs are priced at 3.35 for a win, the match is only priced for just under three goals. This is at the top end for this type of match, but given the need for goals I think this is a little light. Real Madrid can afford to concede and not worry and one away goal would mean a mammoth task for Spurs. You get the feeling Mr Redknapp will tell his team to go for it and sod the consequences. I’m going to lean on goals being scored.
I went back through my database and found 94 recent matches where the home team was priced at 3.35, a 30% chance of a win. 36% of those 94 matches ended up as a win. Only once did the home team score four goals or more and that wasn’t without reply so the prospects for Spurs do look a little bleak. However there were a few 3-0 results in there which would make the match a cracker. Man City won 3-0 at the same odds against Arsenal in 2008 and, more recently, Bristol City defeated Cardiff by the same margin in January. So not totally out of the question, especially given the incentive to win.
My focus will be on looking for goals. Stats tell me that if the game is likely to deliver more than three goals it would be ideal for that first goal to arrive before 30 minutes. 22 minutes or lower will definitely put four within sight. Therefore Spurs need to get at least three shots on target in the first 20 minutes to really be convincing candidates for a shock. Within the first 30 you will know whether things are going to plan or not.
Let’s hope for a interesting and exciting game!
When Harry met Jose
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 5th, 2011
Home wins look the order of the day for the first leg of the champions league this evening. It’s difficult to see beyond that, but as we seen already, anything is possible. When Harry last visited Madrid he got mugged, most Spurs fans will hope it doesn’t happen again on the field of play.
The pressure has to be on Real Madrid to get a result at home against Champions league novices Spurs. Spurs best chance of progressing has to be to shut out Real away from home, but their current record means that a lack of goals is far from certain in this match. I’m a little uncertain on things overall so I will aim to work some money into the market before it starts with a view to carrying some risk in play. I think the matches on Wednesday will offer more clear cut opportunities.
The Real Madrid match is priced for three goals with two of those going to Real. It seems logical that there could be an above average goal tally in this match. Inter & Schalke are priced for 2.60 with a fairly firm advantage to Inter. Inter haven’t been that convincing so far.
Real Copa Crash
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 11th, 2009
Real Madrid crashed out of the Copa Del Rey last night. As though that wasn’t bad enough for Real Fans it was to lowly AD Alcorcon. Priced at 1.39 to win the first leg away Real Madrid promptly got thrashed 4-0. But that was OK because they had 90 minutes of the second leg to turn it around. Last night they stumbled to a late 1-0 win and stumbled out of the cup.
Real Madrid play Zurich at home in the next round of the champions league.