Posts Tagged results
Betfair profits up on flat growth
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair, News on December 14th, 2011
See the full press announcement here: -
At first glance revenue (comissions) have declined, but so has the cost of sales, producing an increase in the bottom line. Admin expenses have also fallen adding to the bottom line.
I’ll have a proper read of the full statement when I get into the office. Betfair shares are up a bit in early trading this morning.
If you want an update of content of the conference call, I’ll be tweeting updates: -
http://www.twitter.com/betangel/
Betfair results due out tomorrow
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair, News on December 13th, 2011
If you can get up early tomorrow morning you will be able to see Betfair’s H1-12 results. The first since the introduction of the most recent premium charge announcement and various other factors. It will be interesting to see what impact all the news coming out of Hammersmith this year has had on the underlying business. It feels to me like growth has slowed, but that they will be able to boost the bottom line thanks to their very aggressive implementation of price increases.
But let’s not pre-judge things, I’ll be up early to see the news. I’m on the RNS service so I will get the results the instant they are announced and I’ll post them up for everybody. If you are interesting in tuning into the formal announcement webcast you can register on their investor relations web site: -
http://corporate.betfair.com/investor-relations.aspx
Betfair revenue down 7%
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 6th, 2011
Full regulatory news release available from the following link: -
http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201109060700136723N&fe=1
June
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 4th, 2011
June turned out to be a very good month in the end and much better than I expected. It was the best June I’ve had for a few years. How useful to have a decent send off as it were, given the news from last week.
The highlight was obviously Royal Ascot and that contributed the bulk of things for the month. As I have done for a little while, I used both exchanges during Ascot week and this has put me in good shape for the future.
From here on in I don’t think there is much point in posting up individual P&L’s or results for the month. Obviously a headline P&L will be very different from an underlying P&L now and my activities will change, as does my incentive. There is still plenty of incentive for somebody to earn £250k if they ‘only’ pay 20% of that in fees. But at my level I just can’t work incredibly hard, put significant risk into the market, be a net liquidity provider then give away 60% of anything that is left to somebody that isn’t willing to share risk or funding that risk. In my long and varied career I have never seen this anything like it, so I’m not going to directly reward the hand that takes from me. So things have to change, that’s for sure. One immediate change I have to make is to start record keeping afresh. There is little point in measuring against prior records if you have a mercurial change, so I’ll have to park that for the moment and work forward afresh. Actually this is quite a cathartic moment, I feel a bit of a release from the endless chasing down of prior results.
Just a shame I can’t close out the year in the manner it which I started, well not in the same way as before anyhow. But as always, onwards and upwards.
Betfair premium charge & earnings soar
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 29th, 2011
As we are all aware now, Betfair pleaded poverty and an imbalanced business model again yesterday, when announcing another new charge. This time hitting consistent earners for up to 60% of their profits. We heard the similar stories for data charges, transaction charges and the premium charge part one and all the other various amendments over the years to their charge structure.
This didn’t stop them from announcing record revenue and earnings a few hours later. Earnings per share are up 56.2% on the year before. So on the face of it, it looks like profitability isn’t a problem. See the full announcement here: -
http://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2011/2011-06-29.aspx
Given the apathetic response to the first premium charge I always guessed that Betfair would go for an increase at some point. The thing I didn’t guess was that it would triple! I pencilled in a worst case scenario of 50% but never thought a figure above that was feasible, rational or viable. It seems I was wrong. It remains to be seen what impact this will have on Betfair’s ‘We like winners’ stance.
The curious thing about this new charge is that it makes sense, at 60%, for me to teach others how to do it and not to do it myself. This doesn’t really solve Betfair’s ‘problem’ if they are concerned with the cost of servicing my account? It also means if I can earn 40% of my Betfair total on Betdaq then I should switch, and this is perfectly possible to do.
On the positive side Betfair just confirmed by imposing this charge who are the most successful ever users of Betfair. So I should be pleased with that as I am in that group. It also means that increased competition in the market is now almost a nailed on certainty, which we should all welcome.
At the lower levels of the market there is still room for newbies and aspiring super users. Unfortunately it is now unlikely they will reach the same heights as people that have gone before them, but there is still plenty of opportunity there. You will just have to stop when you get to £250k!
April
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 6th, 2011
Well the met office has just confirmed it was the hottest April since records began in the UK and while the weather was great, trading conditions could be described as good as well. Despite my pessimism at the start of the month I did pretty well. I was just short of last years total, but considering I have decided to ease back on activity this year this was a fine result. The problem I have with this is that is raises expectations that maybe I can achieve the same a last year while doing less. I don’t think that’s realistic.
I spent a lot of time last month examining some new areas including liquidity generation and structure to that liquidity. This gave me some valuable insights and a light-bulb moment half way through the month. I am now busy working on the results of that. I really enjoy this sort of stuff. I’m going to include my findings in my next course on the 23rd May.
I’m hopeful of pulling in a decent result in May, but as last month ended on a weekend; that slightly flatters last month and dents this month. As the football season closes my attention will return to Tennis towards the middle of the month. Over the summer I will be working on football data collected last year in anticipation of producing some new work at the start of next season.
March
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 1st, 2011
Mainly thanks to Cheltenham March went OK. It was a surprise to post my best ever March as, outside of Cheltenham, some of the racing was just shocking. Field sizes have been very small and some of the racing just wildly uncompetitive. You wonder why some of these races are going ahead?
I was ‘luck positive’ in March which helped. Last year in April I had several massive doses of luck so I have virtually no chance of repeating that this year. I’ll often use money from one strategy to fund another and tend to be pursuing events on the far right of the bell curve. It costs me money most months but some months I get a handsome payoff.
Back in the middle of the bell curve, I have noticed a decisive shift in racing. I think you can attribute two key elements to this shift. The introduction of cross matching on horse racing and the struggle the racing industry is facing to fund itself. Both have recently affected the market in subtle ways. I think that will continue this year but it’s forcing me to look again at certain strategies. The market moves in mysterious ways and like the butterfly effect, even a subtle change somewhere can produce a much bigger change elsewhere. It will take some time for the market to adjust.
April brings the resumption of evening racing, the Grand National, Champions league quarter finals and warmer weather. With the warmer weather comes a warming up in the sports markets. It’s going to be a busy month!
February
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 3rd, 2011
Last month was pretty quiet. When we are in depths of winter I often take some time off and prepare for the busy summer season and so it was last month.
Summer is so important in sports markets that time off during this busy period is tricky, in the winter much less so. It is important to have a break, so winter is when I tend to do that. That said, a good friend of mine is getting married in the Summer and has invited overseas for a wedding spectacular, so it looks like I may take a week out during peak this year. This year will be different for me anyhow, but more about that on another post.
February actually went OK and I managed to beat December’s total, so that is very pleasing but December was a mare so a direct comparison isn’t valid. I’m fully refreshed now and raring to go at Cheltenham. March is all about Cheltenham really and if you do well then a good month on the cards. Do badly and a poor month is likely. I’m open minded about how it will go this year, each year it gets harder and, on a like for like basis, the average matched bet volume last year fell at a lot of the big meetings. This makes anticipating the conditions for this years meeting quite tricky.
However we do have a preview coming out in GX Magazine so check that out.
Ladbrokes results
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 17th, 2011
There is a summary here: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12490900
Or the full detail here: -
http://www.ladbrokesplc.com/media-centre/press-releases/releases-2011/2011-02-17.aspx
A mixed bag of results, but pretty good given the underlying weakness in core markets. Labrokes is still 3-4 times the size of Betfair depending on how you measure it.
Bookmakers still alive and well
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 19th, 2011
William Hill came out with a year end statement today and the headline results were pretty good. Net revenue is expected to come in up 7% on the year delivering EBITDA of around £275m up from £258m in the prior year. Online revenue has grown 24% with sportsbook turnover up 57%.
One other note from the statement was that 47% of scheduled UK racing meetings were cancelled in December.
Full results will be out in late February. It seems traditional bookmakers are coping quite well in the modern marketplace.
Snovember
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 1st, 2010
That was an interesting month.
The end of the month was a complete damp squib, which was a shame, but the start was well above expectations. The result was that I managed another month up on the prior year and in fact I somehow managed to beat June, which is a bit weird. I was active on 871 races during the month, so it was still quite a busy month. Biggest individual race topped £1.1k and my worst loss was just short of £300. My strike rate has slipped a little in the last couple of months as I have experimented with some more adventurous trading strategies, but it is more or less stable overall and well in comfortable territory.
Early on in the month I went past my full year total for last year so I have two months to add to the total. My return on turnover is creeping up a little, this really shouldn’t be the case. I think I know the reason why and it’s nothing to do with me, it’s more a general market thing.
November isn’t high up on the best months of the year, but certainly isn’t at the bottom. As we move into December things normally slow right down and opportunities become less apparent. Champions league football will soon take a break and racing will peak on Boxing day. From there its downhill all the way!
December is likely to be a tough month and is off to a less than perfect start, but I’ll plug away and see if I can end the year with a flourish. I have already put a lot of thought into next year, so I’ll start preparing the ground for that this month.
Last big race of the month gave a decent result
September
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 6th, 2010
September was pretty much spot on where I thought it would be, which is encouraging. I got off to an indifferent start but picked up speed as I went along and finished on a high. Nothing amazing stood out in September and I completed a quiet transition away from the evening racing. The only notable thing was that my strike rate slipped year on year for the first time in a while. I have tweaked a few things recently, so that is not entirely unexpected. I recommend that you always take time to experiment and look for new ideas. If you don’t you could lose your edge or miss a new opportunity.
So far the year has been much more positive than I imagined so I am set up well for Q4 now. If I can safely navigate through this month, then I will approaching last years total. This has surprised me, the market is more competitive than ever and full of new advice givers on a daily basis. I guess there is a message in there somewhere!
The passing of September sees us slip into a quieter period on the UK horse racing scene so my expectations are lowered as a result. I’m am enjoying getting down the Gym more often and catching up with friends and other traders now there is less time pressure. If you have been doing this for any length of time, you pretty much live from month to month as far as results are concerned. You can never be guaranteed that what worked last month will work again this month. Having got through the bulk of another year is very satisfactory. As I head through my 11th year I am more confident than ever that I truly understand how the market works. All that hard has put me in a good position to cope with whatever the market chucks at me. Of course there will always be complete unknowns and it is those that will eventualy disrupt things. The biggest threat to the way Betfair works, is Betfair itself IMHO.
This month is off to a flyer thanks to a good weekend. The highlight of course being the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. That went well, as did the other racing, so hopefully I can build on that now.
August
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 4th, 2010
August turned out to be an interesting month.
I wasn’t sure what to expect, coming into it off the back of a record month, so I set my much expectations lower. It turned out to be a pretty good month anyhow and I was just short of my third best month of the year. I now tend to glance at prior years to figure what I should achieve and I was more or less on target based on years prior. I also managed to achieve my highest strike rate of the year, but the difference between months now is measured in just 10th’s of a percent so, while pleasing, that doesn’t mean much really.
The month started in excellent style when I traded from a completely different location as a bit of test. On my blog post I sort of positioned this as holiday where I traded, but it was really the the way around. More trading with lots of fun around it. It was the acid test of whether things had developed enough for me to work confidently from other locations and the test passed with flying colours. So from now on, I could be anywhere when I write this! I had worked from many locations before, but as my style has developed and my activity has risen, I wasn’t sure if I would feel comfortable enough away from my normal locations. But those fears were unfounded. After a really cracking start to the month, I wondered if I should have stay away from the office? My results dipped for the next two weeks but I came surging back in the final week of the month with some cracking results.
August sees the end of the summer turf evening racing. But other sports fill in gaps now until Novemberish when things just start to get tougher all around. I’m currently chasing down some very long term targets which I hope to achieve before the end of the year. Given how the year as a whole has gone I think I should achieve those. From that point on I am going to have to think about that critical question ‘What next?’. I’ll aim to give it some thought as we head towards the end of the year.
US Open tennis is a good opportunity at the start of September so make sure you have a dabble in the markets. Even if you have never tried to trade Tennis before it presents a good opportunity to try and because of the different time zone you should be able to do that without getting in the way of other stuff.
Good luck for the month ahead.
January etc.
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 5th, 2010
All things considered January went OK, but it was a very tough month.
The thing to remember if this is your first winter, is that the winter months can be punishing. This year was an even sterner test that usual though. With the weather conspiring against us you will have done well to survive the month with your mindset intact. Volumes were low, markets weak and the racing un-inspiring. I imagine that January cost the racing industry a fair few bucks.
I managed to end up about 5% on last year, but the number of races was well down on last year. So on a like for like basis I actually performed pretty well. The number of races I completed was less than half that in the summer. Therefore, I use the winter months for experimenting, chilling out, research and trying new things.
I did a lot of work in January putting into practice some research from did last year which trailed into this year. It confirmed the old adage that the harder you look at the something the more and more youlearn. I think this is the thing I enjoy most if I am honest. It’s like being a child again and walking down an untrodden route through a forest. Most routes fade out and lead to nothing, but every now and again you head down a path with leads to a new way forward. You look back and think, hmm, I wonder why I didn’t see that before? But, as always life is best understood backwards but you have to live it forwards.
I hope you survived January, unfortunately February usually isn’t much better. After taking February off last year I am very relaxed about what I want to achieve this year and will be taking the time to pick up and start some projects for later this year. After ten years in the market, I am very focused on preparing the ground for my next adventure. When I start that depends on how the market shapes up. I’ve run out of space and need to see some real growth or else things start to become self limiting by default. Maybe I’ll post up more on this at some other point.
Till then, good luck whatever you do and however you do it!
Lack of draws hit Ladbrokes
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 8th, 2009
Full management statement by clicking this link.
Ladbrokes reported 15% lower revenues. They blamed poor margins on horse racing and “exceptionally low” margins on football bets, due to the low number of Premier League draws. In the first 66 games in the Premier League season, only been four draws, just 6% of the total. This compares with the five-year average of 25%.
Ladbrokes are looking to cut their near on £1bn in debt by raising £275m from shareholders, cutting this years dividend and imposing a pay freeze.