Posts Tagged roger federer
ATP World Tour Finals – player by player
The World’s eight best male tennis stars get trade blows in the climax to the tennis season, the ATP World Tour Final, which gets underway at the O2 Arena in London on Sunday. Obviously Bet Angel’s Tennis Trader tool will help when it comes to trading the matches but a few observations on the key players may also help if trading their outright odds…
Rafa Nadal (world ranking 1) – Regularly crocked, it’s no surprise that Rafa tends to end the season poorly as his dodgy knees tire. He is number one for a reason though, but it should be pointed out that most of his ranking points were won at the Grand Slams in the longer format tournaments. Hasn’t played for a month so perhaps be prepared to initially lay in his early matches.
Roger Federer (2) – In solid form, he won at Basel earlier this month. We know you can never underestimate Fed who is favourite for the title, but given his group draw, his odds for the title may drift early on. Alongside him in Group B Andy Murray has an excellent 8/13 record over the Swiss star, while Robin Soderling is capable of beating anyone in his current form.
Novak Djokovic (3) – Winner at the equivalent event in 2008, in contrast to Nadal, Djokovic often puts in his stronger performances at the tail-end of the ATP calendar.
Robin Soderling (4) – The form player. Winner last weekend at the Paris Masters, he can be backed for the tournament at 10/1. He’s odds against in his opener against Murray, but bear in mind that the Swede has just usurped the Scot as the World’s fourth-ranked player.
Andy Murray (5) – Possibly still nursing a slight wrist injury, so might assume his shot making and first-serve percentages to fall as his round-robin matches progress.
Don’t ignore the remaining players Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer and Andy Roddick though. The quality of the contestants means that the gap between the favourites and the outsiders is probably closer than the odds suggest. Last year, one of the event’s weaker players Nikolay Davydenko beat Juan-Martin Del Potro in the final – both are absent this year.
The fall of Federer
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on September 1st, 2008
You couldn’t have missed the news that Roger Federer lost again this week and is about to lose his status as the worlds number one tennis player. Cincinatti is not Federers favourite venue, he lost to Murray there two years ago and he also struggled in the prior round against Ginipri (See the Betfair chart). Putting those facts aside, what’s behind his slump in form?
Having played a lot of sport when I was young I think I know the answer. I am also confident it applies to most top athletes. In simple terms its psychology and physiology.
Physiology
Psychology
I was good at sport but a bit of a generalist; In another life I am sure I was a decathelete! I never really had the support to get above county level but I enjoyed my sport and set myself some stiff challenges. In hindsight I didn’t set the bar high enough and I achieved a number of my targets quite easily. Knowing that I could never get to the much higher level I lost a bit of ethusiams and my performance waned. I remember watching David Duval push Tiger Woods close in the British Open, a year later he pulled it off and won the event. From that point on his form collapsed. It’s remarkable how often you see that, but especially in golf which can punish even the slightest dip in spectacular fashion.
Targets and achievements are important motivators in sport. Beating an opponent, achieving a ranking, or something you dreamed of as a child can really drive a competitior forward. Upward momentum has a dramatic effect on performance. In contrast being at the top and slipping can be a problem. Those shots you used to attack, that flag you could reach suddenly becomes a little harder. Your confidence is dented and knowing your prior performance wasn’t as good, or knowing that there is even more on the next shot than before, doesn’t help you perform.
You often find atheletes quitting while at the top of their game. From both aspects I have pointed out, this makes sense. It’s unlikely that similar heights will continue to be reached in future years and being remembered as a supreme champion writes you into the history books.
From a practical perspective for quite a few years the low backers on Federer have had a field day, but for some time I have recommend laying him. Regardless of his past skill the future is never certain for an athelete and backing at low odds when somebody has been at their peak for some time is a dangerous game. Laying at low odds has limited downside and lots of upside whereas a lot of atheletes experience the opposite effect at the top of their game. Federer still has a lot to offer, but it looks like he is now someway from invincible.