Posts Tagged snow
Snow way
Posted by Peter Webb in General on February 5th, 2012
UK racing cancelled, a few football matches on. But just over that hill there, there is a ton of snow and some kids waiting for me to push them down it. Not a difficult choice of what to do this afternoon. Besides, we will be shattered after a few hours of this!
Enjoying little pleasures like this while you can.
Big week ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing, News on December 5th, 2011
You may read this headline and wonder what on earth I am on about as there isn’t anything amazing happening this week. OK a few high profile things like the Champions League football, but generally just bits and bobs as we descend headlong into the winter.
This time last year however, we were well in the grip of an incredibly cold spell and it pretty much wiped out all the sports action. So this year we are assured of a really good week. Well, at least in comparison to last year anyhow! That’s why I have a big week ahead.
Even this obscure reference to the weather reveals something about the way markets work. When we have a cold winter people anticipate another cold winter the following year. Judging by the number of snow shovels being sold at my local Tesco’s people are making the same mistake this year. Last year was a 30 year odd exception and just because it was bad last year doesn’t mean it will happen this year. Yes there is a demonstrable chance it will, but it is most likely that it wont.
In all markets I watch, there is a common propensity for people to look at the most recent history and start projecting that forward. This often results in demand overshooting in either direction. Identify this overshoot, have the mindset to swim against the crowd and its possible to profit from this behaviour. It’s work wonderfully well for me over the years.
Go short snow shovels!
Speechless
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 29th, 2010
You could claim to be speechless about the prospects of racing this week. It looks like only the ‘all weather’ racing will survive, with all the other courses likely to struggle. But this title refers to my inability to speak well this week thanks to flu. Time for a break!
[Edit : Got a text from my local school saying there were 72 children off with the same thing, I hope you don't get it]
Back to the weather, it’s not uncommon for weeks like this in the winter and they are well factored into my plans. But if you are just starting out it can be depressing. As I stated in a previous post, I worked hard to bank some good times in the summer, so I can comfortably sit this out. But it is unusual this year in that we faced the same issue early in the year. As a result, lost meetings will probably set me back a good five figures in 2010. However, I’m already up on last year so everything is a bonus from here, but the lack of racing is going to deliver much less upside than could have been possible. It would be nice to end the year on a flourish.
With the lack of racing and the flu I will probably spend this week doing other things and a bit more research. It will be a good opportunity to get Christmas shopping out of the way and generally have some R&R. I will probably do some more work on the greyhounds, as this is an area where I am probably not performing at full capacity and they don’t seem to mind the cold, so it will be interesting to have a play. I’ve got an impending office move to plan as well. Bad weather is inevitable now and again, so if you push the boat out in the summer don’t fret in the winter, it’s inevitable. It’s difficult on the tough days to have a result that makes any material differnce to me so I’m not going to worrying about losing the odd day or two.
Use this time to do other things, other sports or to push forward on new projects or research. If you have snow and kids, then go out and enjoy it!
Freezing Folkstone is on, off, on, no its definitely off! Not a surprise.
Snow fun anymore
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 13th, 2010
We all love a bit of snow, especially if you have children. But this morning I woke up to yet another dumping of the white stuff on the lawn and my heart sank. I also had to laugh as yesterday the local authority finally cleared our road and we were able to use the car again, albeit for one evening!! Today the road is treacherous again.
I fired up my iPhone racing post app and sure enough, what looked a promising three card day on the horses is possibly heading for a one card day at Southwell. It’s a bummer as I moved my hospital appointment this week so I could be around for what looked like a better day. Now that’s blown out the water. Currently, excluding oddities, I think this could well be my quietest month on the horses for some time. I’d have to go a fair way back to match it.
Never thought I would be asking for rain, but hopefully it looks like some will arrive on Saturday and hopefully restore some normality to proceedings.