Posts Tagged soccer mystic
It’s all kicking off!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 13th, 2011
Yes the premier league is back. Twenty teams, OK maybe four, well maybe three battle it out for the greatest honour in football…. Who will sack their manager first!
As I have mentioned in previous posts the market tends to inefficient at the start of the season. I looked back over the two months at the start of last season to see what happened last year.
The first thing to note is that the market got the number of goals scored pretty much spot on. On average there were 2.72 goals scored per match over this period, this was against a forecast of 2.72 goals. So little value was created there. Home wins were forecast at 48% and came in at 47%, so not much there after commission (especially 60%). However, the predominant characteristic at the start of last season surround away teams.
Away wins were forecast by the market to arrive 26.6% of the time in the first two months but only occurred 20.7% of the time. Draws were forecast 25.5% of the time but occured a whopping 32.3% of the time. So if you were looking for value last season, that was were to find it. To qualify that and to see if it will repeat this season, you also need to answer the ‘why’ question.
New Videos
Don’t forget to fire up Soccer Mystic (see video) to have a look at matches you are likely to trade. While it can’t be 100% accurate it will give you plenty of ideas on where odds are likely to be and should fire up your imagination for some strategies.
You may not have considered a couple of unique ways in which you can use Bet Angel to trade, analyse or bet on football matches. So watch the following videos to see: -
How to connect multiple markets to one workbook on your spreadsheet
How to connect multiple football matches to one spreadsheet for trading simultaneously
Use the subscribe button on the channel home page to automatically get updated when new videos are uploaded.
Champions league trading
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 17th, 2010
Porto vs. Arsenal
Priced at a lowly 2.30 goals, this is fairly typical construction for a match of this type. Porto are priced as having a slight edge but only just. The market is pretty much spot on in terms of pricing.
B.Munich vs. Fiorentina
A less competitive clash according to the market. Priced at 2.90 with Munich having a 1.30 goal advantage. Under 2.50 goals offers long term value, I would have priced at 2.14 vs. 2.22 in the market.
League football is where I perform best and where I have most of my data, so I am always quite likely to build a lot more margin of safety into these matches. I suggest you do the same. First legs of the knockout round in this competition tend to be dominated by teams playing safe for the first leg and trying to sneak a goal. Home teams are usually desperate not to concede an away goal. We didn’t see that last night in Italy where Man Utd are in a dominant position for the return leg. When I saw the odds for the match I didn’t really believe that they were so favourble for a Man Utd win, but the market was right.
Don’t forget that in these big games it is quite easy to trade before the off. There is so much money passing through the markets that you can trade quite casually and still manage to get a positive result. When you have done that, you will have some free cash to throw at an outside chance in-play. A good tactic even if you are not into football much. Little risk, plenty of upside.
If you want to view some videos on trading on Soccer / Football. We have a number here. Soccer Mystic is free when you have a subscription to Bet Angel.
Time is money
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 14th, 2010
Odds can move in mysterious ways in a football / soccer match but generally they are quite predictable. Using Soccer Mystic to model the likely behaviour is a good way to come up with strategies that could generate a profitable scenario. Is this video I demonstrate one of those scenarios which can be used on any match that gets turned in-play.
Champions league is back – Inter vs Man Utd
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 24th, 2009
Tonight sees the resumption of the champions league with the intriguing match of Inter vs Man Utd.
Mixed signals are coming out of both camps about how they will play. Mourinho suggesting defence will be key, Ferguson hinting that won’t be the case. I doubt either are likely to tell you exactly what they are thinking.
The market is thinking about a draw. The goal forecast from the market is for 2.20 goals on average with a slight edge to Inter. Looking at my stats I reckon Man Utd are a little too short in the market. Fair value should be around 3.05-3.35. Under 2.5 goals should be around 1.56 for a match with these characteristics, so that looks long term value.
If you are interested in how I view this match and the most sensible way to trade it, view the following video. The following video was made using Soccer Mystic. Soccer Mystic is free when you sign up to Bet Angel.