Posts Tagged soccer
FA Cup – Round four winners
Posted by Peter Webb in FA CUP, Football / Soccer on January 28th, 2012
Rather than a prediction this is a glance back. A look if the ‘romance’ of the FA Cup is still alive.
At the start of the third round, premier league teams made up 93.69% of the market. They now make up 80% of the market, the romance of an outsider winning the cup is still alive it would seem.
However, top flight four teams met each other in round three so we will have to delete these for the purposes of what we are looking at. This deletion meant that the total book value of the remainder was 72.37%. We are now in round four and this percentage has increased to 80.27% a shift of 8% or so. If the book % increases between rounds in your selected group, this means it was sensible to back that group, this is why I deleted those other four. No point in backing a definite loser, of which there would have been two if we included those other two matches.
Basically, it didn’t make sense to lay any premier league teams, only back them to progress in aggregate. This is a fairly typically pattern for the FA Cup, especially in the earlier rounds. The only real hope for smaller clubs is if premier league teams knock each other out of contention and then a smaller club flukes a win. You have to go a looooooooong way back to find a season where a lower league team really had a chance. Millwall did well in 2003/4 thanks to a fortuitous route to the final, and in fact the chance of this increases in each round thanks to the random draw. But eventually they have to overcome much stronger opposition and the differential in strength at the top is wider than ever now. Best return to a level stake between round three and four was Leicester by the way.
While it appears to be a bit of a dream to see a lower league team reach later rounds, at least it’s more likely in the FA Cup. If you play in a seeded tournament, like the Tennis grand slams, the competition is unfairly set up to favour the strongest.
So there is a little romance left in the FA Cup, even if it’s only when you see the balls come out of the bag during the draw.
You only kiss your missis on the lips?
Throwing it all away
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 15th, 2011
You have to feel sorry for Fulham. All they needed to do was match the result of Wisla Krakow, preferably win, to qualify. In the end it was the very last touch of the match that sent them out.
Two key mistakes cost them the match. The First OB goal was scored from a free kick and the taker of the kick very cleverly moved the ball an extra foot or two to the right of the wall. The Fulham team missed this and the player was able to curl the ball around the wall and beyond the reach of Fulham’s inexperienced goalkeeper. Very clever play by OB.
The next was definitely a mistake by Fulham. Instead of closing out the match in the dying moments they were still trying to score. More experienced professionals would have just run the clock down. OB got possession from a failed attempt on goal, broke up the pitch, sent in a good cross and with the last touch of the match, the ball was headed in the back of the net and Fulham were out of Europe. That worked out really well for me but I was furious at Fulham for such sloppy play. I can only imagine how the Fulham fans felt.
If anything last night was a good example of why you should always green up if you are given the chance! I’m looking forward to this evenings matches!
0-0 Continued…
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 12th, 2011
Well the two key matches I was looking at worked pretty well in the end but the other ‘deserved’ 0-0 at half time ended up 3-0 to the home team. This illustrates a key point.
With any in-play market you are hostage to what happens during the event. If you take a rigid approach to the underlying event you can’t really hope to out perform the statistics that can be modelled in the market.
In yesterdays match Joey O’Brian was booked in the 61st minute. Four minutes later he got his second booking and West Ham had another player booked as well. One minute later Reading scored and West Ham were well on the back foot. West Ham ended up having two players sent off and conceded more fouls than Reading. Basically, they lost it. You could only see that during that five minute spell in which it actually happened. If you had any positions open on the match, that five minutes spell should have forced you to radically re-asses your position.
Hopefully that’s shown you why keeping an eye on an event in-play will help you outperform those that don’t.
- Where it all started to go wrong for West Ham
0-0
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 10th, 2011
Just position taking at half time on this Saturday’s matches and there are a plethora of 0-0′s. 11 out of the 18 matches I am looking at are that score line as I speak.
Of course, underlying those matches are very different characteristics and odds. But I can tell you that each match if you look in real detail will reveal a significant difference between each 0-0. Some are heading for few goals and some should have loads.
The two stand out matches from the crop of 18 I am looking at are Liverpool vs QPR and Birmingham vs Doncaster. Both should not have reached half time with no score. On the flip side Reading vs West Ham is a “deserved” 0-0.
Right, now I’ve set up my positions I will be off doing some Christmas shopping. Had a good day at Cheltenham but the rest of the racing was pretty dire. Bet Angel is going to look after my positions while I am out shopping. Check out the automation feature so you can do the same!
Sometimes shots don't equal goals
Incentive to score
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 6th, 2011
That one word is how I would describe the next two evenings worth champions league matches. Some teams will have a big incentive to score, others to not lose and others no incentive to do anything at all.
All the above will most likely throw up some of the best opportunities you will see in-play in this quality of match. It’s a bit like the knockout stage which returns in February. Early group stages can be tepid affairs but the next two sets of matches should set off some fireworks. I’ll be heading off to the Gym after today’s racing to squeeze in a couple of hours before returning to really get stuck into the football.
I’ll tend to do what I can before the game starts and then carry that over and then some into the in-play market. Once that trade is complete I’ll re-asses things at half time using information I’ve gathered in the first half to make some decisions.
Liquidity should be higher and opportunities abundant, so have a good look this over the next two nights. Check out incentive to score and what each team needs to do to progress. Double check team sheets as they come out and be prepared to go against the prevailing wisdom to catch some big potential. The rewards are so high for progression to the knockout stage, anything can and does happen.
This evening looks OK, but tomorrow night the setups are a little more intriguing; but there should be opportunity in both.
Lay the draw – automatically
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel, Football / Soccer on December 3rd, 2011
Last week we backed the draw using the new automation feature in Bet Angel, this week we lay it.
Whether you use the new feature to implement something or test an idea, it’s a powerful tool to do either. Based on immediate feedback we have expanded the number of conditions you can apply to your automation which expand your capability further. Bear in mind that using the practice mode you can play around without risking any money and by using the P&L export function in the automation, you can export your results to a file long after the market has closed. This will allow you to see how you did on the day when you return to your desk.
We plan to introduce even more elements to the automation, so please keep your version up to date with the very latest beta. Next release is on Monday.
Here is a video explaining how we laid the draw and greened out after a goal, using automation. I’ll export and post the automation file that did this on the forum.
http://www.betangel.tv/video/using-bet-angel/automation/220-automatically-lay-the-draw
Be careful laying the draw in certain Italian matches!
Carling cup lessons
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 1st, 2011
Some interesting lessons from last nights Carling Cup.
First, the best bet of the night wasn’t on Man Utd or Crystal Palace but elsewhere, have a think about it. In the underlying match itself there was a in-play characteristic that really showed up Man Utd’s struggles. It made an outside bet on Palace a good option.
I have to thank an ‘expert’ for hihglighting this characteristic that I hadn’t looked at before. But rather bizarrely this academic was using it to prove almost the complete opposite of what I am using it for. I found it by reading some of the more academic blogs out there. I often find this interesting as they are trying to answer the why of the more subtle aspects of football.
The problem you have with information is that you often find a problem with the way people approach things, especially academics. They tend to lack subjective thought. It’s easy to slip into the mode of looking for justification of something, rather than taking a step back and understanding what actually creates a characteristic. I.e. you seek to justify your findings rather than getting feedback on them. This often leads you down a blind alley which is what happened on the blog post I read.
I took one look at it and thought, ‘That’s interesting, but doesn’t seem right’. So I rolled up my sleeves and went to replicate his findings only to find out there was additional information contained in them that he had missed. This was only because he was seeking to illustrate and prove a point. In doing so he missed the a different point, in fact I’d say he got the whole thing wrong but I haven’t done enough to confidently say that just yet.
I have to say I’m not keen on these types of cup matches but did well this week from both of them by taking positions that were fairly likely to pay off or offer limited downside. Despite the mixed up lack of quality it proved entertaining. The Europa league is turning into the Carling cup of Europe by the look of it. So I’m a bit mixed on that this year, but will be hacking away at it again tonight.
Man City away
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on November 29th, 2011
I had a nose around the footy markets this evening and noted that Man City were around 2.30′s. Wasn’t completely sure that this was what I expected so checked back at recent Man City matches at these prices away from home. In fact I couldn’t find any this year but last year there were three. City won these 2-0, 4-1 and 3-1 respectively.
If we widen the net to include matches between 2.20-2.50 you capture a wider sample including City’s 5-1 away win at Spurs. The data hints that City don’t try really hard against teams they are expected to win against but up their game against higher profile teams.
Of course it’s the Carling cup, so a lot of what happens tonight rests on how important either team feels the competition is, but City also have strength in depth. I’ll be out watching footy tonight, so wont get the chance to trade it manually; but will keep and eye on things and doing some automated stuff while I’m out.
Good luck if you are getting involved. Carling Cup can be a bit of a gamble sometimes.
Back the draw
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on November 24th, 2011
OK, this isn’t a strategy, it’s a demonstration. But here is a simple script that uses the new automation tool to back the draw five minutes before the start of a football match and then lays it back five minutes into the match.
You can view the video here at http//www.betangel.tv
No champions league fireworks
Posted by Peter Webb in Champions league, Football / Soccer on November 23rd, 2011
Not sure if it’s just me, but I’ve found the group stages of the CL this year a little dull. After my racing hiatus I sat down yesterday evening to see some exciting matches, but not a great deal of opportunity. I guessed Man Utd would be keen to win against Napoli, but didn’t bank on such a quick equaliser! I sense the last few matches in the group stages should ignite some fireworks given the way results have panned out so far.
Tonight I’m working on a pre-off trading strategy. There isn’t, generally, a great deal of movement on these matches before the start; Rooney’s omission last night being an exception. But that doesn’t mean there is opportunity. I’ll be doing my best to work the market before the off so I can put some of that to speculative use this evening.
So in the UK we move from the Mancunian challenge to the London challenge. It will be interesting to see if both come to life in the knockout stages, as they seem to have spluttered through the groups. Advantage Spain I’d say at the moment!
Too early!!!
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer, Horse Racing on November 19th, 2011
I was out last night at a charity auction event, doing my own personal bit at this time of year.
The recession must be in full effect as I haven’t seen such low bids at such an charity auction event for some time. In an effort to get things going I was bidding on most items. I got a bit lucky at one point as I nearly ended up with a wedding dress, having started off the bidding, only to see no-one else bid on the item. But some lucky lady outbid me, phew!
I tried to get use of a Aston Martin DB9 for the weekend, but was outbid. I did get eight corporate hospitality tickets for a football match however, so the evening ended on the right note. Lots of money raised and a good night was had by all.
So this morning I woke up with a bit of a sore head but a warm feeling inside. Then I realised the first race of the day was at 11:40!
Having come to terms with that, I remembered that this throws up an opportunity as when the race starts early it, obviously, finishes early. Therefore, as the racing draws to a close, I can move straight onto the football at half time. This is perfect for looking at the first half stats and making some judgements on the second half.
So that’s my action plan for today! Not forgetting to get an early night as well!
'Hangover' is recommended film
Poppycock
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 9th, 2011
You wouldn’t think such a widely accepted charity symbol could possibly be a controversial figure, but I am sure that FIFA are determined to make it so. You would think a largely political organisation would be able to successfully brush aside any possible controversy about remembering the sacrifice people make during wars in a calm and reasoned manner before anything controversial came of it. But FIFA appear to have fowled up again on this one.
You can see the logic of stopping national teams making statements on their shirt, but I’m not sure this is the case on this occasion. If I were the FA I would stop the arguing and give every supporter in the stadium a poppy before the match starts, send a Lancaster over the pitch with a belly full of poppies and put one prominently in the background at the start of the match. Something to show FIFA why they need to rethink future similar decisions.
My eldest daughter is just discovering, through her history lessons, at high school just what happened during the war and the incredible waste of life that took place. Nobody should ever forget that.
Muddled
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 3rd, 2011
It’s a bit difficult to disect European vs English form in the Europa league. But we have some clear clues on at least one match this evening.
Rubin Kazan play a much depleted Spurs side this evening and you would have to favour the Russian side given Harry Redknapp’s preference for player his second string in this competition. With the news that Harry will miss the match due to surgery you get the feeling that following a strategy that relies on Rubin Kazan being in the lead at some point is a sensible move. You can’t help but feel the muddling of the Spurs team will work against them this evening.
Here’s hoping Harry has a quick and full recovery from the surgery.
R&R
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 2nd, 2011
The Melbourne cup went pretty well and I’m looking forward to finishing off the whole carnival in style if I can. I’ve put a few other things on the back burner this week to focus on the meeting. I’m feeling too old to burn the candle at both ends and get away with it! It was interesting to note that matched bet turnover on the Melbourne cup was lower this year than last. It reached about £3.6m vs. £4.4m last year, therefore my turnover was lower as a result. I had expected turnover to be up.
I’m skipping the Champions league tonight so I can get some rest and relaxation, though I am intrigued by the Villareal vs Man City match this evening. I think most of the other matches can be read reasonably well, but in this one I’m looking for clues City can translate their UK success into a credible European campaign. They certainly have the players to do it, but don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders at the moment in europe. This match will be an interesting test.
Later this morning UK time I’ll be returning to Flemington for more Melbourne action. Today isn’t the best day of racing so it’s a bit ‘hardcore’ to suffer the effort required to do today. So if you didn’t get on with the big race, I wouldn’t recommend getting up early to do today. It’s usually been pretty weak in the past. However, I’m pretty confident I can earn more on this than the football, so that’s what I will be focusing on today.
Every action..
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 25th, 2011
Requires an equal and opposite reaction… said Issac Newton.
So my attention is drawn to the clash between Aldershot and Man Utd this evening.
Man Utd should win, but the odds are discounting a bit of uncertainty, which is probably a fair reflection of the likely team and how they will play. But can Fergie risk anything less than an emphatic victory? I’m on the look out for a reaction to the stunning result on Sunday. I imagine that will galvanize them into action.
I’m not really into these matches generally as they are difficult to accurate assess, but I sense there could be an opportunity in this match this evening.
United vs City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 23rd, 2011
One of the big matches of the season is up today, the Manchester Derby. I’m really intrigued.
This is the real acid test of who is going to be in the ascendancy over the season. Both have thrown down the gauntlet with very good early season performances and matching each other stride for stride so far. So this match is the first opportunity to throw both in the mix and see what comes out of the melting pot.
You have to feel there is a good chance of a draw. Either side will not want to lose and that will cause either side to really chase down a goal if they go behind. Local matches always throw up more draws than non local matches anyhow. I’d love to watch it but unfortunately I will be on a plane at kick off so I wont get to see it at all. I’ll have to fire up my laptop to view the highlights when I land.
Good luck if you are getting involved. You may be interested in taking up Betdaq’s offer of your commission back if either team come from behind to win. Click here to learn more about the offer. Just how often would this happen? On average the away team scores first 44% of the time. 32% of the time they will score first but not win, so it’s a definite possibility. But, Manchester City have only won once at Old Trafford since 1974 – a 2-1 victory for Sven-Goran Eriksson’s side in 2008. It’s going to be an interesting battle.
Click here to learn more about the offer
The champions league gulf
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 19th, 2011
Just had a good look at this evenings matches you can’t help but wonder if UEFA’s coefficient is a bit cocked up. Either than or whether there really is such a massive gulf between the top teams in Europe and everybody else. I suggest the outcomes are driven by commercial incentives in reality.
Barcelona are an amazing 1.05 to beat Plzen this evening. We have Chelsea t 1.12, AC Milan 1.27 and Porto 1.30.
Several uncompetitive prices were offered out last night. The only tempting one last night was Man City, given their weak start to the group stages. Would have turned out to be a great trade. As it was, I was getting sozzled in a hospitality area at Southampton watching the curious phenomena of English players playing in an English league. Still some way from the billions of the champions league. Tonight I’ll be back behind my desk. I am looking for some value in the Porto match.
It doesn’t take a genuis to work out the most to least goals this evening, so I won’t post them up. Good luck this evening.
Pep, how many goals will you win by?
Mission impossible
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 11th, 2011
Scotland travel to Spain this evening in an attempt to pull off the biggest shock in Euro qualification history with a win in the world champions back yard. Before we completely dismiss their chances, lets look at the some stats.
The market is pricing in a dominant Spanish performance with Spain coming out winners by at least two goals on average. In the past there have been some big wins in matches like this, but also a few shocks. Overall I found 211 similar looking matches in my database and of those 15 ended up as away wins or 7%. Scotland are priced at 20′s or around a 5% chance. 162 matches ended up as home wins equating to around 1.30 in digital odds. Spain are priced at 1.20, a little short. Spain should win but the stats hint that with such a strong Scottish incentive to win, the odds on a Spainish win are a little on the skinny side. The market has the overs and unders market spot on according to historic stats.
If you are looking for how such an unlikely win could occur here are a selection of matches where the unlikely did happen, study them for potential clues: -
Away – 2010 – Liverpool vs Blackpool – Result – 1-2
Away – 2010 – Arsenal vs Newcastle – Result – 0-1
Away – 2008 – Porto vs Leixoes – Result – 2-3
Away – 2009 – B Munich vs FC Koln – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – Barcelona vs Espanyol – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – AC Milan vs FC Zurich – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Man Utd vs Leeds – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Tottenham vs Wigan – Result – 0-1
Internationals
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 7th, 2011
I had my own international experiance last night when I met up with Howard Hamilton from Soccermetrics. A dedicated group of stats experts huddled in a pub in Fulham to discuss all things football related. Could have done with a quieter pub!
With so many international matches going off at once, or at best close to each other, you may consider using a generic strategy that you can automate. All this can be done in practice mode as well, so you have no risk of losing money. Have a look at these videos for some ideas: -
Trading multiple markets in one football match
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/176-multiple-markets-football
Linking and trading multiple football matches
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/177-multiples-matches-football
Example overs/under football spreadsheet
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/210-overunders-ss
188ft headed goal
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 3rd, 2011
One of the things I like about football is it’s randomness. There are predictable elements to it, but goals occur over a wide average and are difficult to pinpoint precisly. This makes it good for certain types of strategies. If you want an example of the unpredictability of goals here is a classic: -
McClaren resigns
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 2nd, 2011
Further to my blog post on Saturday, Steve McClaren resigned from his post this evening: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/15145175.stm
You know what to look for!
Sack your manager now!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 1st, 2011
Early this week I was listening to the interview with Nottingham Forest manager Steve McClaren after watching his team get thumped 5-1. It was a depressing experience. Forest started the season at a good price for promotion but have since looked like a team trying to avoid relegation. McClaren seemed clueless to give a clear example of how he will turn their fortunes around. Should Forest sack him?
Another area of research I have done in the past is based around the new manager effect. I’ve researched not only what happens but why. Here is the what.
On the sample I looked at, sacking a manager generally lifted league positions on average by 1.17 places in a 20-24 field league. So there you go, sack your manager now! But more interesting was some of the detail in the averages.
If your club is right at the bottom or top of the league, then a sacking doesn’t seem to have as much effect as elsewhere on the league table. But the most predominant factor appeared to be the ‘popularity’ of the manager. If you sack a ‘popular’ manager, your form will decline no matter who you bring in. If you sack an ‘unpopular’ manager then your form improves whoever you bring in. Clubs that made a ‘popular’ appointment gained an average of six league places and those that didn’t fell on average. That inevitably lead me to ask why you see this effect, so I worked on this with a psychologist. But that’s another story.
Of course, that doesn’t directly answer the question of whether or not McClaren is popular or unpopular, but if it’s the latter and he is sacked start backing Forest.
Champions league
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 27th, 2011
Tonight’s matches should generate on average around 23 goals. I’d rank most to least: -
Real Madrid vs Ajax
Man Utd vs FC Basel
B Munich vs Man City
Lyon vs Dinamo Zagreb
Otelul Galati vs Benfica
Napoli vs Villarreal
Trabzonspor vs Lille
CSKA Moscow vs Inter
I much prefer the knockout stage of the competition or the latter stages of the group stages when incentive to score is highest.
Stat of the evening for you. There is around an early 60′s% percent chance that B Munich could take the lead at some point during the match against Man City.
Cheaters never prosper
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 24th, 2011
I saw this post on another blog recently and it shows up how statistics can actually reveal very little at all. This is obviously unintended in this case, but is a trap a lot of people fall into very often. Especially when gambling / trading.
http://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/2011/09/cheaters-never-prosper-connection.html
I first looked into the relationship with fouls and goals some time ago and the link is the attacking strength of one team over the defence of another. If your defence is under pressure then they are more likely to commit a foul. It’s as simple as that, there is little more to be read into things.
For some time I sought to understand how to price odds on a football match. This was the obvious key to finding value. Bit by bit I improved my forecasting skills to the nth degree. In that quest I discovered many things, but one of them was how a lot of stats that are proffered to the market are in fact completely useless in determining value.
If a team has scored two goals a match for ten matches in a row, then you may think this has some bearing on the next match. But ultimately it doesn’t. But that doesn’t stop every pundit and his son offering this as a useful stat. In fact the source of true odds actually lies much deeper in individual statistics and how you plug two disparate teams together. Sort that out and you have the key to successful forecasting.
Red vs. Blue
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 18th, 2011
I recently watched an episode of Horizon on BBC iPlayer. These documentaries are right up my street and I love exploring some of the more esoteric views of things. This particular episode was all about colour and how the brain interprets colour. It was really fascinating as it highlighted that a lot of the colour you see is “interpreted” by the brain and not actually “real”.
One element of this was looking at the effect of red and blue and how it affects sports performance or the interpretations of officials in sports tournaments. The results were fascinating. So with another red vs blue match on today the conclusion of this research is that I should favour red. I’ll be backing Man Utd today! Of course this is just one element of things so don’t take it too literally but the research was interesting. You can find lots of there in the Internet: -
So, back to last week and the question “If a team is priced at 2.00 how often will they go on to score first?”. I was surprised by the diversity of answers, but the actual answer is 60% (Give or take rounding, equipartition, sample size etc). I first worked out the rough percentages back in the mid 80′s for some work I was doing then. Over the course of a season, if I take a stab at the first scorer, I’m accurate to within 0.07% of the actual. But there is a lot of variability in there, which is the reason behind my “What does value look like post”. Just because you pick something, doesn’t mean it will happen. Only that it will happen X% of the time based on your stats. The interesting thing about this stat is that it is saying that if you trade the favourite rather than just back it, you get a 10% better chance of profiting.
Whatever strategy you choose, whatever filters you apply it needs to yield over a 60% strike rate to have any possibility to make money in the long term. If you starting hedging they your increase liability needs an even higher strike rate. I’ll discuss that more in future weeks.