Posts Tagged soccer
Classic set up
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 7th, 2010
A wonderful set up occurred in the FA Cup clash between Reading and Aston Villa this afternoon. Against the odds, Reading took a 2-0 lead againsts premiership outfit Villa. The teams went off for half time in distinctly different moods. A break in play is the perfect opportunity for teams to turn things around and that Villa did. Rejuvenated from their half time talk it wasn’t look before Villa were suddenly 3-2 in the lead. You could have backed them in the teens only to green up at 1.29 after a few minutes. Doesn’t happen that often, usually it’s just a case of looking for the one goal, but three in ten minutes left any half time Villa backers with a stunning 10 fold return on their stake.
The interest in this set up was multiple. Non favourite leading, half time break, incentive to score, plenty of time left. Normally you are only looking for a goal, but now and again things just work much better than expected!
Europa league matches
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 27th, 2010
Had some fun last Thursday messing around on the Europa league matches. I like the Europa league as they break down the matches into two blocks. One going off at 18:00 UK time and the remainder at 20:05. This gives you two cracks at the whip at trading them. This week was also the second leg of a knockout competition, which I prefer. I also tried an experimental strategy to small stakes on Thursday and that is what this post is about.
Basically I was trying a variation on the strategy I detailed here. Football is one of few sports available where you have multiple ways to hedge risk. All football markets are very tightly integrated and that allows you to offset risk across a variety of markets if you wish. This shifts your focus, less to managing downside and more to looking for upside opportunities. Even if you place positions at random, as long as you think about your hedged bet it’s difficult to lose substantially. Use Soccer Mystic to work out your counter positions in secondary markets.
Because football matches all go off at the same time you can use the guardian tool on Bet Angel to skip between markets in a flash. It also allows you to place orders quickly with automated trading functions which are managed in the background as you skip around the different markets. This allows you to easily trade many markets at once without fear of losing control of things.
For my experiment I used £10 stakes with a maximum risk of £30. I took positions before the off and hedged positions when a goal was scored or at half time. It was a fairly painless strategy but yielded some useful information and a profit to! It’s always useful to play around with these types of hedging strategy, even if you don’t make much you learn a lot and the commission generated across multiple markets is a useful way to offset the premium charge.
Champions league trading
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 17th, 2010
Porto vs. Arsenal
Priced at a lowly 2.30 goals, this is fairly typical construction for a match of this type. Porto are priced as having a slight edge but only just. The market is pretty much spot on in terms of pricing.
B.Munich vs. Fiorentina
A less competitive clash according to the market. Priced at 2.90 with Munich having a 1.30 goal advantage. Under 2.50 goals offers long term value, I would have priced at 2.14 vs. 2.22 in the market.
League football is where I perform best and where I have most of my data, so I am always quite likely to build a lot more margin of safety into these matches. I suggest you do the same. First legs of the knockout round in this competition tend to be dominated by teams playing safe for the first leg and trying to sneak a goal. Home teams are usually desperate not to concede an away goal. We didn’t see that last night in Italy where Man Utd are in a dominant position for the return leg. When I saw the odds for the match I didn’t really believe that they were so favourble for a Man Utd win, but the market was right.
Don’t forget that in these big games it is quite easy to trade before the off. There is so much money passing through the markets that you can trade quite casually and still manage to get a positive result. When you have done that, you will have some free cash to throw at an outside chance in-play. A good tactic even if you are not into football much. Little risk, plenty of upside.
If you want to view some videos on trading on Soccer / Football. We have a number here. Soccer Mystic is free when you have a subscription to Bet Angel.
Quiet transfer deadline day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 1st, 2010
Often the transfer deadline throws up a few opportunities, due to the high correlation between wages and league position. A buy or sell can translate to a corresponding improvement or decline between now and the end of the season. This year it was very quiet. The only thing of note was Portsmouth net sale which isn’t going to help their prospects of avoiding the drop. If you followed my advice of a little while ago you should have a healthy profit, I suspect it will get healthier after today.
FA CUP value
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 23rd, 2010
Where is the value in today’s FA Cup?
To be honest any recommendations would come with a large pinch of salt. While predicting matches in the same league is quite a straightford process, doing the same in a cup competition can be pretty tricky. If there are any matches I am likely to get caught out on, its quite likely to be a cup competition, especially in the early rounds. As such I’ll do some simple things when the screen is full of cup matches. It’s just too risky to use the same model as you do elsewhere.
Looking for upsets and ‘local’ derbies is a good place to hunt. But nothing can replace simple, low risk, trading positions. Once complete you can use this money to take fairly speculative positions that can have good pay off if a shock occurs. This is where I be playing this afternoon.
Over / Under 10.5 goals
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 21st, 2010
You don’t see that market very often, but you did last night. What a remarkable match, Aston Villa 6 Blackburn 4! At 0-2 down Villa were matched in volume at 10’s, this match was a trading bonanza! The market was just slightly out on this one forecasting just 2.60 goals. Excluding specifics of the match itself, I can only find three 6-4’s in my recent detailed database of 10,189 matches. So its around at least a 3400-1 shot. Great entertainment anyhow. I think Milner should go to South Africa for the world cup next year. Every tournament needs some energetic new blood that the other countries won’t know much about, I think Milner fits the bill.
I had several emails of some spectacular totals from this match, much better than my efforts, I hope you did well also.
Portsmouth – To be relegated
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 19th, 2010
I’ve had a lot of fun on this market in the past and there is another potential opportunity. Portsmouth already looked pretty doomed given their position at the bottom of the table at this time of year. On top of that you have players low on confidence and a financial position that is, at best, precarious. At 1.30’s that information seems to already be discounted into the market.
But, HMRC has now been given the go ahead for their winding up hearing to take place on 10th February. If successfully the club could go into administration and possible points deductions could consign them to relegation. Also, as the weeks pass the price with come in anyhow.
Of course, new investment could also occur and save the club, but it’s worth a look.
Trade of the week
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 15th, 2010
One of my favourite types of trades appeared this week. The trade where you look at one market but actually trade another. These opportunities appear all the time but typically in knockout competitions and ante post markets where a result somewhere will definitely affect other prices in a same or similar market.
This week was a little more clear cut but unusual. ITV decided to cover the Liverpool vs Reading FA CUP match. It had all the signs of the perfect drama for the FA Cup. I was active on the match and when it was obvious that Liverpool were struggling and lacking confidence I immediately turned to look at Liverpool’s next match to see the price. It seemed others had already started discounting Liverpool’s poor form and the price was on the drift.
Normally that’s about it, the early market starts to adjust to the new information. But the next morning it was revealed that Torres would require surgery on his knee and a couple of other players picked up knocks during that match. So the drift continued. It’s quite rare to see such movements on football matches before the off as they are usually very stable. But, obviously, if circumstances start to change and the news coming out of the camp isn’t good news. The market has to react. One of the lowest risk but most rewarding trading opportunities of the week.
Time is money
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 14th, 2010
Odds can move in mysterious ways in a football / soccer match but generally they are quite predictable. Using Soccer Mystic to model the likely behaviour is a good way to come up with strategies that could generate a profitable scenario. Is this video I demonstrate one of those scenarios which can be used on any match that gets turned in-play.
1234 & 9-1
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 23rd, 2009
Amazing result from Spurs on Sunday. Not often you get to see 10 goals in a match, especially nine of the them in the second half. That said, Spurs did get a 6-4 against Reading on 29/12/2007. In the same season we also had Portsmouth vs Reading on the 29/9/07, which produced a 7-4 scoreline. I have actually watched a 10 goal match. It was Southampton vs Coventry, which Southampton won 8-2. Some time ago though, that was back in 1984.
1234, where does that come into it? Well according to my model, that was the theoretical odds that there would be ten goals in this match. Checking my database that turns out to not be far from what what we have seen in recent years.
Personally, I think it would be fun to have odds above 1000 on the exchanges and also more correct scores to choose from, at least something starting with 4’s would be good. Somehow I don’t think we will be seeing any 9-1 markets any time soon though.
How to turn over a 1.60 shot
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 16th, 2009
I knew Southampton would lose yesterday, or at least not win. How? Well there were two key overriding factors in yesterdays match.
First, I had bothered to make the trek to the south coast to watch the match. Because of the unsocial hours of the sports markets I don’t get the chance to watch much sport so when there is a team nearby that plays when I can watch, I’ll often nip along. Unfortunately for Southampton every time I watch them, they lose! My mere presence appears to send them to defeat. As it was a case of the form team playing the team short on form on this occasion. I expected this mere fact to overturn my Southampton hoodoo. They lost 3-1.
For the more logical answer of their 3-1 loss yesterday we should look at what happened between when I decided to go to the match and the events that led up to the match itself. Brighton have been on a slippery slope this season and endured some heavy defeats as they slid inexorably towards the bottom of league one. As a result their manager, Russell Slade, was sacked on the 1st November.
Things looked pretty hopefully for Southampton, this was probably the match they needed to finally lift themselves out of the bottom four of the league. That was until Gus Poyet arrived at Brighton to take over the vacant managers position. I’ve documented it before but it’s amazing how often teams that have just had a manager appointed suddenly outperform. For that reason, I felt that at a price of 1.60 Southampton didn’t represent good value. In fact they even contracted in price near the off to 1.52 according to my data.
Unfortunately because of my history with Southampton, I didn’t have a bet, such is life. I was more concerned with trying to squeak some money out of the last day of the Cheltenham open. What I can predict is though is that, because of this ‘exceptional’ loss, most rating systems will incorrectly mark down Southampton and probably incorrectly price their next match. It will take another match to work out Southampton’s true form but I’ll be looking for some value when they next play. Let’s hope its not another team that has just changed manager!
Real Copa Crash
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 11th, 2009
Real Madrid crashed out of the Copa Del Rey last night. As though that wasn’t bad enough for Real Fans it was to lowly AD Alcorcon. Priced at 1.39 to win the first leg away Real Madrid promptly got thrashed 4-0. But that was OK because they had 90 minutes of the second leg to turn it around. Last night they stumbled to a late 1-0 win and stumbled out of the cup.
Real Madrid play Zurich at home in the next round of the champions league.
Football value this evening
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 10th, 2009
A quick glance on this evenings football has through up Leeds as a clear value candidate. Rather than duplicate the information here, please have a quick read of the posting on the forum. The thing that stands out on this match is that it is a clear value candidate. Very often things are a lot more marginal, but here there is clear room.
Bear in mind that value only appears over time, so you need to stake with that in mind and consistantly over a number of matches. Read my previous post about this.
Retrograde motion
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 15th, 2009
Have a look at the England match last night and you could see a classic bit of why the market is efficient, but it isn’t. Immediately after the first England goal it was quite possible to back the draw and see it come in a fair bit. A fair bit as far as the odds were concerned, but not much in implied probability, around 2.5%.
The price on the draw came in after the first goal and this is contrary to what the stats would say, the stats would say the draw would get much less likely, not more. But this actually happens quite often around pivotal points in the market. The reason last night was that Belarus did not lose their shape after that early goal, but kept possession and controlled a lot of the first half. Therefore the market was discounting the possibility they may score. You can’t forecast that ahead of a match, but you can monitor the in play stats to get a better idea of what is happening when it is underway. That’s what I recommend, make your judgement before the match starts but play close attention once it’s underway. I’m already looking forward to a busy summer next year!
Not playing tonight
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 9th, 2009
No activity from me this evening as it’s my fourteenth wedding anniversary and we are out for a posh meal and some pampering. Traditional musings say this is an Ivory anniversary, but modern says Gold so it looks like a Spandau Ballet single is in order, LOL!
Just a quick post on the England vs Croatia game.
I reckon the odds should be 1.61 England, 7.20 Croatia and 4.1 the Draw.
Current market prices are similar but too short on the draw. I guess this is because it isn’t a must win game for England. I think the best value this evening was the price of Sweden to beat Malta. If you could have got any money on Czech Republic to beat San Marino, well done. I put an order in a long time ago and still didn’t get matched!
Arsenal vs Celtic
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 26th, 2009
With the end of the evening racing I’ve finally put my footie head on. Market is priced for 3 goals with Arsenal expected to score at least a couple of those. From a stats perspective the price on Arsenal and Celtic is about right. If pushed for a price I would offer 1.40 on Arsenal and 11 on Celtic, looks like a Arsenal win! But I would also offer only 5’s on the draw which means there is some value in that.
I’ve put some thought into the match and popped up a video for you: -
$100k Soccer challenge
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 15th, 2009
A couple of guys recently flew into the UK do my course in July. They have now taken the bold step to do their own challenge via a blog. In contrast to others, they are going to do this on football.
They were a smart couple of guys and I’ve no doubt they will do well. Based on the start they have got off to, I think they may need to up their target a little bit. You can view the blog here: -
Good luck guys, with the football season in full swing plenty of opportunities are just around the corner.
The draw
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 30th, 2009
Price movement during the game
I was going to post about Liverpool vs Everton but never got the chance to do so. So here is a reverse appraisal. As most people know a local derby is always a tight affair and perhaps a match you would expect to end in a draw, as neither team want to lose.
Unlike a lot of myths this is actually generally true. I did some research a fair time ago and realised that there was a link between distance travel and the propensity to draw. So there are many factors that make a draw but in fact the proximity to the away team does indeed increase the chance of a draw.
One feature of the match the other night that was interesting was the persistance of the draw during the match. This meant there was ages where you trade the draw with only minor risk and during the match it felt inevitable that Liverpool would equalise. You often see this, but not as stark as in this match. An interesting match all round.
Why do Man U get more penalties?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 29th, 2009
Celtic 11 – Dundee United 10.
Odd scoreline but this was actually just the penalty shootout. You can view all 14 minutes of it here. I was watching some tepid premier league match in comparison testing a couple of strategies. It got me thinking about what is the biggest shoot out. According to the article here it seems to be 16-17 with all but the last penalty scored. It’s quite amusing seeing goalkeepers take penalties but, by accident or not, the Celtic goalkeeper scored the best of the lot IMHO.
To answer an age old question, yes top teams do get awarded more penalties. I did a study quite a few years ago to confirm this. You will also be interested to know that lower teams concede more. While it feels like a conspiracy, it’s generally not. Putting aside the stats, it just turns out that teams at either extreme are more likely to be attacking or defending deep and a penalty is therefore more likely as a result. That’s likely to disappoint the conspiracy theorists.