Posts Tagged southampton
Much fun was had
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 29th, 2010
I found myself at the new Wembley stadium yesterday, the first chance I have had to go. It was a useful coincidence as the match was on a Sunday, my usual day off, and it is my birthday this week. So it seemed a good chance to ‘go large’ and have a decent day out.
I took my eldest daughter and my son with me as well so they could experience the occasion. It was great and well worth the effort, much fun was had by all! From outside, the stadium looks impressive, it’s surroundings less so. But once inside it’s spectacular and generates a real sense of occasion.
I was hoping for a decent result for Southampton and that’s what happened, it was a perfect day out. I had posted up on the forum that I thought they were value at the odds offered and that’s pretty much how it played out. Carlisle didn’t really do themselves any favours though. There were a huge number of Southampton fans at the ground, estimated at around 44,000, which is quite a surprise given that the town only has a population of 250,000!
I think, like others, I have quite enjoyed the lower reaches of the football league. I know that sounds daft but after years of hanging on in the premiership it’s really nice to watch matches where you are actually in with a chance of winning! I think the top ranked teams have caused football to lose it’s soul a bit. League positions are pretty much being sorted out now by how much money you have to spend. In the lower leagues it feels a lot more like the football I used to remember when I was young. Each club also seems to have a local hero in the side, good inspiration for aspiring young footballers.
Anyhow, back to business today and feeling slightly jaded after the weekends entertainment. But well worth it!
Having a look at the stadium just before lunch
FA CUP fifth round
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 13th, 2010
I like the later stages of knockout competitions. There is lots to play for and when a goal down and ten minutes are left , it’s all or nothing. These are the places you not only find value but plenty of opportunity and teams playing out of their skin, I love it! Wembley stadium is only a few games away today and anything can happen.
I’ve checked through the odds and nothing wierd has been thrown up. But consider the general picture if you are going to have a play today. With Chelsea and Man City at home it would be a shock to see an upset there, but you may want to be with Stoke if you are looking for one. They have nothing to lose and Man City seem a little fragile. Backing Chelsea at 1.16 is more of a punt than a trade, so look to secondary markets for an opportunity. Cardiff will probably fight a rearguard action and hope to nick something on the break.
Derby, Reading and Southampton are all matches with similar traits. Weaker team playing at home with strong away teams. Both Reading and Southampton will fancy their chances but I’m not so sure about Derby. These matches will probably be played with caution by the stronger away team who don’t want to concede and give the home side an advantage. So I suspect not making mistakes will be the order of the day for the away sides. The longer the match goes on the more the quality should show. An early goal by either side will upset the apple cart.
Both Derby and Southampton’s matches are priced in as low scoring affairs, with little advantage to either side. Usually these matches turn out to scrappy draws. I think the price on the draw should be a little shorter.
Whatever happens, I’ll be on the lookout for late goals, as that is the key characteristic of knockout competitions.
Ratings: -
Chelsea vs. Cardiff Goals: 3.4 Supremacy: 2.8
Man City vs. Stoke Goals: 2.8 Supremacy: 1.8
Reading vs. West Brom Goals: 2.7 Supremacy: -0.1
Southampton vs. Portsmouth Goals: 2.5 Supremacy: -0.1
Derby vs. Birmingham Goals: 2.4 Supremacy: -0.2
Couldn’t make it up
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 24th, 2010
One tie looks set to light up what otherwise appears to be a dull and predictable fifth round FA Cup draw.
I waited with baited breath knowing that there were a few ties that could produce a classic cup match, but was amazed when the one top of my list occurred, Southampton vs Porstmouth. I couldn’t believe it!
This should be a real classic fifth round tie. Local derby, quite a history behind this fixture and a perfect set up. One team seemingly in inexorable decline and another who suffered the same fate now back on the march with full confidence. I’m too close on this one to get involved, as loyaltes will get in the way of sound judgement. But it’s looking set up for an excellent fifth round battle.
Four year hoodoo ended!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 2nd, 2009
Ever since I watched Southampton relegated from the premiership four years ago, my presence at a football ground seems to condemn the home team. I don’t get the chance to see many matches nowadays, but every match I turn up to since then, ends with the home team unable to win. Regardless of the quality of the teams, whether its the champions league or a more minor game, I have been unable to watch a home team win. Finally I have laid that to rest.
Last night, I nipped down to the south coast to watch Southampton take on Wycombe in a not particularly inspiring league two clash. I offered 1.50 for a Southampton win and, unlike the last match against Brighton, there was little going for the away team. It looked a fairly certain home win.
And so that turned out to be. Southampton won and climbed out of the relegation zone. They made fairly heavy weather of it though. Despite dominating the chances, Wycombe only had one shot worth recalling, Southampton only managed the one goal and really should scored quite a few more; but a win is a win.
One point of interest. I think it’s always interesting to watch sports live as you control the action of the ‘camera’ and can spot a lot more than watching on the TV. It’s a nice reminder of what you can miss when a director is controlling the camera. It’s worth getting out there now and again and looking at the broader picture. It’s given me a few ideas to pursue in the new year.
How to turn over a 1.60 shot
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 16th, 2009
I knew Southampton would lose yesterday, or at least not win. How? Well there were two key overriding factors in yesterdays match.
First, I had bothered to make the trek to the south coast to watch the match. Because of the unsocial hours of the sports markets I don’t get the chance to watch much sport so when there is a team nearby that plays when I can watch, I’ll often nip along. Unfortunately for Southampton every time I watch them, they lose! My mere presence appears to send them to defeat. As it was a case of the form team playing the team short on form on this occasion. I expected this mere fact to overturn my Southampton hoodoo. They lost 3-1.
For the more logical answer of their 3-1 loss yesterday we should look at what happened between when I decided to go to the match and the events that led up to the match itself. Brighton have been on a slippery slope this season and endured some heavy defeats as they slid inexorably towards the bottom of league one. As a result their manager, Russell Slade, was sacked on the 1st November.
Things looked pretty hopefully for Southampton, this was probably the match they needed to finally lift themselves out of the bottom four of the league. That was until Gus Poyet arrived at Brighton to take over the vacant managers position. I’ve documented it before but it’s amazing how often teams that have just had a manager appointed suddenly outperform. For that reason, I felt that at a price of 1.60 Southampton didn’t represent good value. In fact they even contracted in price near the off to 1.52 according to my data.
Unfortunately because of my history with Southampton, I didn’t have a bet, such is life. I was more concerned with trying to squeak some money out of the last day of the Cheltenham open. What I can predict is though is that, because of this ‘exceptional’ loss, most rating systems will incorrectly mark down Southampton and probably incorrectly price their next match. It will take another match to work out Southampton’s true form but I’ll be looking for some value when they next play. Let’s hope its not another team that has just changed manager!
Coincidences
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 8th, 2009
I had another one of those coincidences last night. I went to my local Gym which is attached to a luxury hotel. I drifted through the hotel and there in front of me was the chairman and manager of Southampton football club. As you may know, for my sins, I have followed Southampton from when I was very young as they were my local team. I had a little chat with them, but they obviously have a lot on their plate; so I left them to chat with, whom I think was the CEO.
I was able to open a conversation due to another coincidence, Alan Pardew lives on the same street as a friend on mine. But finally Markus Liebherr is German so while he was busy chatting I couldn’t help but listen. I spent three years working for German company, so while I am not fluent, my German is better than average.
No great insights into todays match but it made for a more interesting evening!