Posts Tagged spain
Mission impossible
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 11th, 2011
Scotland travel to Spain this evening in an attempt to pull off the biggest shock in Euro qualification history with a win in the world champions back yard. Before we completely dismiss their chances, lets look at the some stats.
The market is pricing in a dominant Spanish performance with Spain coming out winners by at least two goals on average. In the past there have been some big wins in matches like this, but also a few shocks. Overall I found 211 similar looking matches in my database and of those 15 ended up as away wins or 7%. Scotland are priced at 20′s or around a 5% chance. 162 matches ended up as home wins equating to around 1.30 in digital odds. Spain are priced at 1.20, a little short. Spain should win but the stats hint that with such a strong Scottish incentive to win, the odds on a Spainish win are a little on the skinny side. The market has the overs and unders market spot on according to historic stats.
If you are looking for how such an unlikely win could occur here are a selection of matches where the unlikely did happen, study them for potential clues: -
Away – 2010 – Liverpool vs Blackpool – Result – 1-2
Away – 2010 – Arsenal vs Newcastle – Result – 0-1
Away – 2008 – Porto vs Leixoes – Result – 2-3
Away – 2009 – B Munich vs FC Koln – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – Barcelona vs Espanyol – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – AC Milan vs FC Zurich – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Man Utd vs Leeds – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Tottenham vs Wigan – Result – 0-1
Going Dutch
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 11th, 2010
This isn’t a pick! I think the Spanish have done a good job so far tactically and may test the Dutch defence in a way it hasn’t been tested so far this World Cup. This is a reference to what I will be aiming to do this afternoon. I have Dutchand German friends just round the corner from where I live, but as the German’s didn’t get to the final I will be going Dutch for the final. As I am unlikely to experience the thrill of watching England play for the greatest price there is in International football, so I may as well do it by proxy with a native supporter. It should be a fun afternoon.
The match is priced at 2.20 goals with a 0.36 goal advantage to the Spanish. I think that’s fair given the progress of both teams so far. I would have expected the market to price closer to 2.00 goals so I wonder if the draw could be value at this level. If you look at the stats home advantage is worth 0.40 of a goal so that effectively means it’s an even match but Spain are playing at home. If you don’t believe that, then Spain would be a value lay.
I won’t be trading the final as I will trying to get into the swing of things before the final.
Germany vs Spain
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 7th, 2010
The market is priced for 2.40 goals or thereabouts with a 1.20 goals to Spain. The Germans have stormed through to the semi final whereas the Spanish appear to have ground out results but both teams slipped up in the group stages.
Some interesting notes I’ve copied from elsewhere: -
- Victory at Euro 2008 was only Spain’s second win in eight competitive games against the Germans.
- Germany are unbeaten in three previous World Cup games against the Spanish.
- Overall, the two nations have met 20 times: Germany have won eight and Spain six, with six draws.
- Germany have reached this stage in six of the last eight World Cups.
- While Italy beat the Germans in 1970 and 2006, it is 52 years since a side other than the Azzurri defeated them at the semi-final stage.
I’ve always been a keen advocate of psychology over stats and I think the Germans definitely have the wind behind them. The Spanish have the weight of expectation on them as they are the first Spainish team to reach the semi finals of the World Cup. By contrast this will be Germany’s 11th world cup semi final and most German’s wouldn’t have expected that this time around.
I’m tempted to plump for a contrary trade by favouring the German’s to win a low scoring contest.