Posts Tagged st andrews
Another big price winner
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 19th, 2010
I am really starting to like Golf as a trading medium.
I tend to carefully model sports before getting deeply involved with them. Doing that allows me to test the up and downside limits to a strategy and that in turn allows me to know what I need to do to be successful. I tend to hunt for the downside to any strategy as that allows me to frame it at which point it clearly defines the upside for me. This is why I often suggest that people trade at random. If your random losses are X and your strike rate Y then you immediately know what you need to do to profit. If you can’t get near that metric, you either need to start again or think of a new way into the market.
Golf is tricky to model. Players heading off at different times, playing on different difficulties of holes. But for anybody that has played golf, one characteristic stands out. One good shot can make a good round and one bad shot can ruin in. These characteristics can send players rocketing up or down the leader-board.
The practical upshot of this is that big outsiders can shorten quickly and short prices can lengthen quickly. This seems to throw up some really big priced winners. Last year in the Open Championship we had Cink, an 800 shot, battling Watson, a 1000 shot, in a play off. This year the unknown Oosthuizen romped home at 490!
If I would have let my bet on Oosthuizen stand I would have made a small fortune, but I just find it impossible not to approach every market without carefully planning out my approach. As a consequence there were others I backed and I also laid off some of the substantial potential on Oosthuizen. Being a relative rookie I did expect him to crumble a bit under the pressure, but Oosthuizen did a great job of playing percentage golf over the weekend and with such a gap to the other contenders it was the right thing to do. The others couldn’t have any impact without taking risk and than ultimately led to mistakes.
Overall, a good tournament. Just itching for the next one now!
Wel gedaan!
Time to sit back and enjoy
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 17th, 2010
With the hard work out of the way on the Golf, it’s now time to sit back and enjoy the weekend play. With plenty of profit in the bank I can take some speculative positions without too much worry and don’t have to watch the market like a hawk. I hope the weekend produces a thrilling climax to the tournament.
Open golf day two
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 16th, 2010
Here is the list of my best backs from the open. Oosthuzien is the best having crashed in from 490 to just 14′s this morning. This means for my ‘massive’ £4.25 stake I can green up for near on £150 on just Oosthuizen. Daly touched teens early on as well. Three of these bets are on the top ten ‘odds leaderboard’ so its been a cracking start. Would have been even better if some of the shorter prices had blown up, but there are still quite a few that have slipped out of contention. Roll on the cut!
The Open golf championship
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 15th, 2010
If you want a clue as to how to trade this event, just have a look at the weather forecast for a massive clue. Changed course, competitive tournament, poor weather ahead of the cut.
I notice that after nearly winning it last year Tom Watson is priced at 300′s for something similar this year. I don’t think that is realistic, he was 1000 last year. Stewart Cink is 150, he was 800′s last year. Justin Rose is priced to be in contention, but a lot of his golf is on the US tour now, not sure if that form will translate to the Open.
Curiously, Justin Rose used to live near me and his local course was just up the road. Only when he was an amateur breaking into the professional scene though. We did end up playing on the same course once at the same time and other than having dinner with Colin Montgomerie once, that’s about the closest I will ever get to the claret jug.
One thing I do love about golf though is the ability to play on the same course and relive the famous shots from the big tournaments. I think that adds something special to the game of golf. Trying running on Old Trafford with your mates to have a kick around and you will be arrested, with Golf you can tread in the same footsteps as those you admire. It’s a inspiring feeling.
