Posts Tagged steamer

Gamble landed

Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 11th, 2010

Not often you will hear me saying that, but when a Barney Curley horse is out and being gambled, you just have to sit up and take notice. Rather than an outright gamble though, it always worth having a go on the trading front. It can be a bit volatile, but it’s often quite clear where the money is going on a Curley horse. Yesterday we saw several horses traded at decent volume from big to much smaller prices. “Agapanthus” traded at a high of 8.20 before going off at 3.45, “Savaronola” 5.60 to 2.34 and “Sommersturm” 5.30 to 1.60. At that point it looked over but the Racing Post telegraphed another great opportunity on “Jeu De Roseau” which went from 16′s to go off at 2.38! What a day!

Rather than regurgitate graphs and stats, there is a good thread running on the forum with previous Curley excursions, you can read it here.

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Being contrary

Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 3rd, 2009

Have a look at the following chart from the 14:15 at Lingfield on Saturday. This is a very big steamer. Of course in hindsight you would say, ‘If I backed it at X and laid it at Y I would have made £Z’. Most people would look at this chart and back it high and lay it low. After all backing at 3 and laying at 2 would net you a 100% profit on your stake and fully greened up 50%.
Steamer at Lingfield

Steamer at Lingfield

I often look at these moves and do the opposite. It’s easy to get sucked into such a move and follow it. You can see that it has come in a long way, the market likes it, but also it has accounted for a disproportionate amount of volume, £239k out of £284k for the total market! But of course it can’t go all the way into 1.01, that would be impossible. So at some point people have to stop backing it and the price will rebound. That’s exactly what happened today. Catching this move also benefits you in another way. When the price rebounds, it tends to do so with a lot of vigour as most people in the market can’t help but follow the trend. When the trend breaks, everybody heads for the door and there lies your opportunity.

Bet Angel - One click screen

Bet Angel - One click screen

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