Posts Tagged stoke
FA CUP final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 14th, 2011
Is it just me or does the FA Cup feel like it’s losing is significance? Maybe it’s the dominance by big teams, maybe it’s the fact that this season the premiership and the champions league have pushed it around a little? Anyhow that’s not to detract too much from this famous competition. I am sure either supporters will be rightly proud if their team pull of a win.
The market is pricing in 2.50 goals with an advantage of 0.50 to City, that seems about right. Regardless of the odds past FA Cup finals tell us the matches are very tight affairs with few or no goals and this is especially so in the first half. So my strategy will be based on a low scoring match with any goals likely to occur late on.
FA CUP fifth round
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 13th, 2010
I like the later stages of knockout competitions. There is lots to play for and when a goal down and ten minutes are left , it’s all or nothing. These are the places you not only find value but plenty of opportunity and teams playing out of their skin, I love it! Wembley stadium is only a few games away today and anything can happen.
I’ve checked through the odds and nothing wierd has been thrown up. But consider the general picture if you are going to have a play today. With Chelsea and Man City at home it would be a shock to see an upset there, but you may want to be with Stoke if you are looking for one. They have nothing to lose and Man City seem a little fragile. Backing Chelsea at 1.16 is more of a punt than a trade, so look to secondary markets for an opportunity. Cardiff will probably fight a rearguard action and hope to nick something on the break.
Derby, Reading and Southampton are all matches with similar traits. Weaker team playing at home with strong away teams. Both Reading and Southampton will fancy their chances but I’m not so sure about Derby. These matches will probably be played with caution by the stronger away team who don’t want to concede and give the home side an advantage. So I suspect not making mistakes will be the order of the day for the away sides. The longer the match goes on the more the quality should show. An early goal by either side will upset the apple cart.
Both Derby and Southampton’s matches are priced in as low scoring affairs, with little advantage to either side. Usually these matches turn out to scrappy draws. I think the price on the draw should be a little shorter.
Whatever happens, I’ll be on the lookout for late goals, as that is the key characteristic of knockout competitions.
Ratings: -
Chelsea vs. Cardiff Goals: 3.4 Supremacy: 2.8
Man City vs. Stoke Goals: 2.8 Supremacy: 1.8
Reading vs. West Brom Goals: 2.7 Supremacy: -0.1
Southampton vs. Portsmouth Goals: 2.5 Supremacy: -0.1
Derby vs. Birmingham Goals: 2.4 Supremacy: -0.2
Trade of the week
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 15th, 2010
One of my favourite types of trades appeared this week. The trade where you look at one market but actually trade another. These opportunities appear all the time but typically in knockout competitions and ante post markets where a result somewhere will definitely affect other prices in a same or similar market.
This week was a little more clear cut but unusual. ITV decided to cover the Liverpool vs Reading FA CUP match. It had all the signs of the perfect drama for the FA Cup. I was active on the match and when it was obvious that Liverpool were struggling and lacking confidence I immediately turned to look at Liverpool’s next match to see the price. It seemed others had already started discounting Liverpool’s poor form and the price was on the drift.
Normally that’s about it, the early market starts to adjust to the new information. But the next morning it was revealed that Torres would require surgery on his knee and a couple of other players picked up knocks during that match. So the drift continued. It’s quite rare to see such movements on football matches before the off as they are usually very stable. But, obviously, if circumstances start to change and the news coming out of the camp isn’t good news. The market has to react. One of the lowest risk but most rewarding trading opportunities of the week.
