Posts Tagged swing trade
Swinging in the rain
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 23rd, 2009
Just checked out todays card before heading off to the Gym at lunch time. Today is one of the most swing oriented cards I have seen for a while. Not perfect, but certainly likely to be up there with some of the most volatile days of the year. If you like swing trading there should be some quality opportunities out there today, if you are only a scalper, watch out as it will be a volatile day.
Look over your shoulder
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 3rd, 2009
When trading it’s easy to get carried away with a move in the market. The prices is rising and you instinctively want to follow it as it charges off in one direction or another. You sit there and ponder your move then make the decision to jump in. Just as you do it goes the other way and you sit there waiting for it to rebound into profit, it continues to fall and then you can’t stand it any more and cut out. No sooner do you cut out than the price moves the other way, you jump back in and then you find you exit too early as the price soars off in the direction you picked. At that point you look over your shoulder as you could swear that somebody was watching you and waiting for you to click that button!
Why does this happen?
The answer lies in a little bit of psychology, namely fear and greed. I’ve published this image before, a couple of years ago in the newsletter, but I think it illustrates very well why people get into the market at the wrong time, exit at the wrong time and then fail to take their full profits.
Initially as the price moves, you feel a need to jump on a price movement, fearing you may have missed out. It turns out you were too late and the move has already happened and as the price falls back below your entry point, you bail out. This time you get in again and as the price rises you get nervous so you close your position, to be safe. Of course it sails well past your exit point and typically, if you have been in and out already, your hand is forced again by your previous memory of your prior unsuccessful entry.
This graphic illustrates these issues better than words but the summary is, let the market be your slave, not your master. Don’t follow it, try and be contrary.
Swinging Southwell
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 1st, 2009
You may think this refers to the antics of some people at the races on Tuesday but in fact it turns out that Tuesday was an excellent day for swing traders. Several races exhibited the classic set up for a decent swing trade and anybody sharp enough to spot it would have done well on Tuesday. It was great to see a new Bet Angel customer, Carl Harris, take advantage of the opportunity. Traditionally it’s gamblers that struggle to cope with the transition for punting to trading so it’s great to see a traditional punter trade well. I recorded a video of one the swings on Tuesday. I traded using larger stakes on my main account and a smaller amount on the secondary account. I’ll upload it to Bet Angel TV when I get the chance to add some commentary.
Being contrary
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 3rd, 2009
Steamer at Lingfield
I often look at these moves and do the opposite. It’s easy to get sucked into such a move and follow it. You can see that it has come in a long way, the market likes it, but also it has accounted for a disproportionate amount of volume, £239k out of £284k for the total market! But of course it can’t go all the way into 1.01, that would be impossible. So at some point people have to stop backing it and the price will rebound. That’s exactly what happened today. Catching this move also benefits you in another way. When the price rebounds, it tends to do so with a lot of vigour as most people in the market can’t help but follow the trend. When the trend breaks, everybody heads for the door and there lies your opportunity.
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