Posts Tagged tennis trading
Extra rest will help Djokovic
Andy Murray booked his place in a second successive Australian Open final following his four set victory over David Ferrer.
While Murray has looked solid throughout the tournament, the outstanding Novak Djokovic stands in the way of the Scot’s Grand Slam dream having beaten Roger Federer in the other semi-final. The Serbian is chasing his second Aussie Open title and has had an extra days rest before Sunday’s showdown.
The head-to-head record stands at 4-3 in Djokovic’s favour, although Murray has won the last three matches. Interestingly, the pair have never played a five set match against one another. Further encouragement for Murray is that the past two victories have come in ATP finals, in Miami and Cincinnati – both on the hard court.
Murray has been fantastic at mixing up pace and spin on his way to the final and that is his best chance of success. In contrast, Djokovic will rely on his immense power that will test the Murray’s defensive prowess to the limit.
It’s sure to be an epic finale and as Murray pointed out after his semi, both players are in pretty good shape. With little to separate them, the 2.08 available for over 41.5 games looks tempting.
Outright, it’s hard to go against the world number three. Beating Federer 3-0 will have given Djokovic all the belief he needs and will likely start the stronger of the pair given his extra recuperation time. Back Djokovic at 1.74 now as I suspect he might win the first set and shorten slightly.
ATP World Tour Finals – player by player
The World’s eight best male tennis stars get trade blows in the climax to the tennis season, the ATP World Tour Final, which gets underway at the O2 Arena in London on Sunday. Obviously Bet Angel’s Tennis Trader tool will help when it comes to trading the matches but a few observations on the key players may also help if trading their outright odds…
Rafa Nadal (world ranking 1) – Regularly crocked, it’s no surprise that Rafa tends to end the season poorly as his dodgy knees tire. He is number one for a reason though, but it should be pointed out that most of his ranking points were won at the Grand Slams in the longer format tournaments. Hasn’t played for a month so perhaps be prepared to initially lay in his early matches.
Roger Federer (2) – In solid form, he won at Basel earlier this month. We know you can never underestimate Fed who is favourite for the title, but given his group draw, his odds for the title may drift early on. Alongside him in Group B Andy Murray has an excellent 8/13 record over the Swiss star, while Robin Soderling is capable of beating anyone in his current form.
Novak Djokovic (3) – Winner at the equivalent event in 2008, in contrast to Nadal, Djokovic often puts in his stronger performances at the tail-end of the ATP calendar.
Robin Soderling (4) – The form player. Winner last weekend at the Paris Masters, he can be backed for the tournament at 10/1. He’s odds against in his opener against Murray, but bear in mind that the Swede has just usurped the Scot as the World’s fourth-ranked player.
Andy Murray (5) – Possibly still nursing a slight wrist injury, so might assume his shot making and first-serve percentages to fall as his round-robin matches progress.
Don’t ignore the remaining players Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer and Andy Roddick though. The quality of the contestants means that the gap between the favourites and the outsiders is probably closer than the odds suggest. Last year, one of the event’s weaker players Nikolay Davydenko beat Juan-Martin Del Potro in the final – both are absent this year.
Trading Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 9th, 2010
The US open has provided some excellent trading opportunities so far and there are probably many more to come as we reach the more competitive stages of the tournament. Tonight the Wawrinka v Youzhny match looks particularly interesting, especially with the way Wawrinka has been playing.
If you get the right set up, trading a service game is a particularly good strategy. With Tennis Trader you will also know what chance the server has of winning the game and your up and downside expectancy as well. This is a significant improvement on guess work! Video embedded below….
Tennis trading for dummies
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 1st, 2009
Thanks to the unusual scoring system, tennis matches experience some of the wildest swings you will see in any inplay market and are worth a dabble even if you have never done it before. It can be pretty low risk as well.
I’ve worked for ages to model Tennis matches accurately. I’ve got to the point wehre I now have the ability to look ahead to see where the odds should be given any scenario. While this is useful, it’s not a pre-requistie to successful Tennis trading. In fact, if you are starting out it’s really quite simple to get your first successful trade under your belt.
Even at short odds the majority of odds drift in-play. This generally occurs because of a break of serve occuring at some point, or in the case of a very short priced favourtie a failure to break. If you don’t get either then the odds will obviously shorten. If you are at laying at low odds, then you have already framed your downside. So by using low stakes and laying the favorite at short odds at the start of the match, you have limited downside and lots of potential for upside. You are very likely to be able to trade out profitably.
Taking a bit more care to qualify or watch the start of the match and your strike rate will go up. Timing your exit when the favourite comes back into the match will allow you to get a better exit. Even if you use little skill you shouldn’t find yourself losing match after match, subject to your exit of course! From there you can build out to more adventurous strategies. Make sure you use Guardian as this will allow you to trade more than one match at the same time with stop losses and all the usual functions.
Andy Murray - Tennis traders dream!