Posts Tagged tottenham
Muddled
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 3rd, 2011
It’s a bit difficult to disect European vs English form in the Europa league. But we have some clear clues on at least one match this evening.
Rubin Kazan play a much depleted Spurs side this evening and you would have to favour the Russian side given Harry Redknapp’s preference for player his second string in this competition. With the news that Harry will miss the match due to surgery you get the feeling that following a strategy that relies on Rubin Kazan being in the lead at some point is a sensible move. You can’t help but feel the muddling of the Spurs team will work against them this evening.
Here’s hoping Harry has a quick and full recovery from the surgery.
Nothing’s impossible
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 13th, 2011
That has to be the message that Harry Redknapp will send to his team this evening. But just what chance does he have?
When you can lay Real Madrid at 1.02 to qualify, so the market thinks Harry has less than a 2% chance. But memories are still fresh for me with that remarkable run Middlesbrough had in the UEFA cup a few years ago.
Spurs are priced at 3.35 for a win, the match is only priced for just under three goals. This is at the top end for this type of match, but given the need for goals I think this is a little light. Real Madrid can afford to concede and not worry and one away goal would mean a mammoth task for Spurs. You get the feeling Mr Redknapp will tell his team to go for it and sod the consequences. I’m going to lean on goals being scored.
I went back through my database and found 94 recent matches where the home team was priced at 3.35, a 30% chance of a win. 36% of those 94 matches ended up as a win. Only once did the home team score four goals or more and that wasn’t without reply so the prospects for Spurs do look a little bleak. However there were a few 3-0 results in there which would make the match a cracker. Man City won 3-0 at the same odds against Arsenal in 2008 and, more recently, Bristol City defeated Cardiff by the same margin in January. So not totally out of the question, especially given the incentive to win.
My focus will be on looking for goals. Stats tell me that if the game is likely to deliver more than three goals it would be ideal for that first goal to arrive before 30 minutes. 22 minutes or lower will definitely put four within sight. Therefore Spurs need to get at least three shots on target in the first 20 minutes to really be convincing candidates for a shock. Within the first 30 you will know whether things are going to plan or not.
Let’s hope for a interesting and exciting game!
When Harry met Jose
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 5th, 2011
Home wins look the order of the day for the first leg of the champions league this evening. It’s difficult to see beyond that, but as we seen already, anything is possible. When Harry last visited Madrid he got mugged, most Spurs fans will hope it doesn’t happen again on the field of play.
The pressure has to be on Real Madrid to get a result at home against Champions league novices Spurs. Spurs best chance of progressing has to be to shut out Real away from home, but their current record means that a lack of goals is far from certain in this match. I’m a little uncertain on things overall so I will aim to work some money into the market before it starts with a view to carrying some risk in play. I think the matches on Wednesday will offer more clear cut opportunities.
The Real Madrid match is priced for three goals with two of those going to Real. It seems logical that there could be an above average goal tally in this match. Inter & Schalke are priced for 2.60 with a fairly firm advantage to Inter. Inter haven’t been that convincing so far.
Football’s turn for an ouch!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 6th, 2010
Bolton score against Spurs, so you would expect the odds to move a bit. However, you wouldn’t expect Spurs to get backed into 1.59; but that’s what happened! I suspect somebody sorted the odds in the wrong order or just had the wrong selection up some how and back heavily on the goal.
Bolton won 4-2 so no get out of jail card was served on this occasion. £77,809 was matched at 1.59.
The battle for fourth place
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 6th, 2010
While most eyes were firmly focused on Man City vs Spurs last night, a remarkable battle was taking place 200 miles further north for the same place in the Scottish Premiership. Unlike the English battle, which ensured ‘arry team has broken into the previously exclusive top four, the battle in Scotland was for Europa cup place and infinity more exciting and in fact totally remarkable.
UK users can watch the highlights here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/scot_prem/8658858.stm
The match ended 6-6 and that included a saved penalty! The last goal in the match was worthy of squaring such an amazing game. As soon as the result flashed in I was scrambling through my data to find out if there had ever been a 6-6 draw in the top divisions before. When I was young I was lucky enough to watch a 5-5 draw but 6-6 seemed a virtually impossible result. Just seeing twelve goals in a match was remote according to the stats. If you are optimistic then it would be around a 1 in 20,000 chance, but on average it would take nearly 70,000 matches before you would see 12 in one match, the chance of 6-6 would be even remoter.
My correct score spreadsheet didn’t show a single one so I had to dig around to find another. From what I can find , there have been two previous 6-6 draws. Leicester and Arsenal drew 6-6 in April 1930 in the top division, and Charlton drew 6-6 with Middlesbrough in October 1960 in the second division. Charlton had three other matches that season with six or more goals. So unless somebody can inform me otherwise in the many tens of thousands of intervening matches there have been no 6-6 draws. The mean return time appears to be 30-50 years for the entirety of top flight football.
I feel sorry for the Motherwell fans who left at 6-2 down, they just missed a piece of football history.
1234 & 9-1
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 23rd, 2009
Amazing result from Spurs on Sunday. Not often you get to see 10 goals in a match, especially nine of the them in the second half. That said, Spurs did get a 6-4 against Reading on 29/12/2007. In the same season we also had Portsmouth vs Reading on the 29/9/07, which produced a 7-4 scoreline. I have actually watched a 10 goal match. It was Southampton vs Coventry, which Southampton won 8-2. Some time ago though, that was back in 1984.
1234, where does that come into it? Well according to my model, that was the theoretical odds that there would be ten goals in this match. Checking my database that turns out to not be far from what what we have seen in recent years.
Personally, I think it would be fun to have odds above 1000 on the exchanges and also more correct scores to choose from, at least something starting with 4′s would be good. Somehow I don’t think we will be seeing any 9-1 markets any time soon though.