Posts Tagged us masters
Record day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 12th, 2011
Phew, what a weekend that was!
We are now entering peak season for all things sports related and this weekend was a good warm up for the months ahead. It also set a new bench mark for me as the Saturday just gone turned out to be my best ever day on Betfair! Whether I can ever beat such a storming weekend is another question. When you have been going for as long as me, you need a little luck now and again to deliver an exceptional result.
Saturday wasn’t without it’s problems though. Betfair gave us a sharp reminder why it pays to be vigilant. I hinted in the recent newsletter, again, that you should have a back up plan ready for Saturday and so it proved. The site was under a lot of pressure on Saturday and it coped pretty well, but eventually an API server went AWOL before being taken off-line 1/2 hour later. In that time prices via the API were all over the place. However, no sooner had we picked up that an API server was throwing out false prices than I switched to a different connection mode and continued. Not the first time this year I have had to do that! At moments like that, the connection modes on Bet Angel are utterly invaluable. Despite this occurring about 45 mins before the Grand National, I was able to continue with confidence and well beat last years total. That was a big step forward on the way to a good day.
The National wasn’t a record day for Betfair however. Matched bet turnover was £7m by post time this year vs. £7m last year and £7.5m in 2009. I doubled my turnover on the race year on year, so if you strip out that activity and that of others it’s quite an interesting story behind the numbers.
Racing went well and would have been great on it’s own, but it was the US Masters that delivered a nice bonus. I managed to get the eventual winner at 120′s and a host of others at good prices. Of course I didn’t hold these positions, I traded them out as they shortened. But when you back at three figures and lay off at short odds, that’s big green up territory. The Masters was exceptional trading fodder this year. In the morning I was on BBC radio Berskhire and tipped a lay on McIlroy. As I stated at the time, I didn’t want to do this as it would have been great to see McIlroy win, but my research had told me it was a good laying opportunity. I didn’t expect him to blow up so badly, so I hope it doesn’t become an issue for him. He is still young and has a big career in front of him, so I am sure it is just a matter of time before he is competing for honours again.
No doubt like Mr McIlroy, I’m taking a rest at the start of the week. I was exhausted after this weekend, so I need some time to recharge my batteries.
US Masters – The cut
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2011
It’s been an excellent Masters so far and the big mover before the cut was Jason Day who was trading at 300′s yesterday and has come into 16′s. Fortunately, I had some money on Day at 240′s, so that’s really made up the numbers at the cut. Tiger looks menacing so I have taken profits on positions and will re-appraise during the third day. I have plenty of profit to play with now. If I can’t see any new opportunities then that will be it for the tournament. It’s warming up nicely for the final day. Lets hope McIlroy can keep up his excellent performance so far, would be an amazing result for him.
Tiring weekend ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 8th, 2011
First day of Aintree is now behind me and I can take that knowledge forward to today. I had a difficult start yesterday but ended up doing OK on the day overall in the end. I think I could have done better, but lets see what today brings. If you remember Cheltenham, you will be pleased to know that the Betdaq markets are working well at Aintree also, so bear than in mind today if you are finding the going tough on Betfair. The extra money on Betfair can hold things up and slow down your fill rate, that doesn’t happen on Betdaq. It’s a sort of goldilocks effect, not too little not too much.
I got off to a good start on the Masters and despite only correctly tipping Immelman to open well I managed to pick up some meaty prices on others so it all worked out in the end! I know little about Alvaro Quiros but did managed to back him at 190, his odds are now at 15′s. Thank you Alvaro! A few of the favoured players have already blown up so it’s been a pretty favourable start.
Plenty of racing on today, Masters this evening and the National tomorrow; football can take a back seat for the moment. It’s going to be a tiring weekend.
Master-mind a trading winner
I actually think Phil Mickelson should be backed for the Masters, even at around 13/2, but such a short price doesn’t give us much room for manouvre in the trading stakes.
Ideally, we want higher priced players who will be in with a shout, make the cut and allow us to trade out on the Saturday.
We’ve already identified a Vijay Singh as an outsider with good course form and recent form, but there are a few others with the potential to offer great trading opportunities. Australian Aaron Baddeley is around a 50/1-shot. He finished 17th on his last outing at Augusta two years ago and his game has improved drastically since he reverted back to his old swing. He won the Northern Trust Open in February and was fourth behind Mickelson in Houston last week.
Martin Laird is around the same price (but as short as 33/1 with certain bookies!) and although this will be his debut at the Masters, his high-trajectory shot profile suits the course. He plays on the US Tour so will be familiar with course characteristics, as will Justin Rose, available at around 35/1. Both can be expected to make the cut.
Look out also for Stewart Cink (100/1), Freddie ‘Boom! Boom!’ Couples (125/1) and Gary Woodland (150/1).
US Masters golf
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on April 7th, 2011
First trade of the tournament is already done. When the market was formed Woods was way too short at 5′s so I laid him. His best finish this year is T10 and there is no evidence at the moment that he was anywhere near a 4/1 chance for the masters. It turned out a lot of people thought the same and he is at a much bigger price and I am out for the moment. Not very often you get a trade like that before things get underway!
When things are underway I will start hunting for those big prices that are going to shorten up. The Masters has thrown up some big priced winners in the past. It’s such a tricky course that anybody who is in the zone can see it through at big prices. On the flip side a well skilled player can make one mistake and blow up as a result. Recent big price winners were Trevor Immelman , Zach Johnson and Angel Cabrera whom all won at odds well exceeding 100.
I have half an eye on Vijay Singh as one to follow, his form has ticked upwards recently and he has an excellent record at Augusta. Plenty of prospects in the field.
A busy day
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on April 9th, 2010
I haven’t chosen a good week to get the flu, it was such a busy day today. I really only performed at a fraction of my true capacity. The football was good last night and the golf but I watched little of either. My golf position will not mature till the end of today’s round so I will have to rise on Saturday morning to close that out. Fantastic to see Tom Watson move from odds of 1000 to just 100 on the first day. Surely we won’t see Turnberry again, it would be amazing; especially on such a tricky course. Tiger has picked up where he left off so his odds now reflect that.
The first day of Aintree was a bit of a let down. There is something weird happening in these markets so we capture a ton of data yesterday and will analyse it today. Hopefully we can learn from yesterday and move forward today, we have to nail it ahead of the Grand national on Saturday.
I’ve cancelled my appointments of today and will take the morning off to try and build up some energy for this afternoon.
US Masters
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 8th, 2010
Picking a winner in any major golf tournament is a very, very tricky task. There are only a few strokes between the top of the leader-board and being out of contention. Any body who has played golf will know that a few strokes difference is only a hook, slice or shank away.
Anybody who has been on my course recently should know the angle I will be taking on this event. But the great unknown here is how Woods will perform? This will complicate matters significantly. Typically Woods would have been at much shorter odds if this was a ‘normal’ tournament but with all this stuff going in his personal life he opened at around fives and has drifted to 7′s. If he gets off to a good start then I think the market will shorten him up quickly, but if he doesn’t then his odds will slowly drift to ‘Mickelson’ type odds. I think a lot will depend on how relaxed he is at Augusta and how the crowd take to him. I’ll be watching the first round to try and get a feel for that. As people know I’m likely to avoid the front of the field but there is bound to be a lot hinging on how Woods plays so whether you want to or not, you won’t be able to avoid how his odds affect the rest of the market. I was sort of hoping he wouldn’t play, but it will be interesting to see how things unfold. I feel the fact he has returned so soon shows you his true personality and intent, he wants to win.
I have included a graph for this years US masters. for how the odds moved on Woods in previous masters, please view the thread on the forum.
Tiger woods 2010 US Master before the start
Masters first day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2009
As expected Tiger drifted a bit before finishing strongly. I say a bit, at level stakes he moved 200% and now he is at much shorter prices. A good opportunity to green out, he looks in good form.
If you had dutched the ‘favourites’, all under 50′s including Tiger in this case. You would have LOST 11% of your stake value at the close of day one. In contrast if you had backed those ranging from 100-500 you would have GAINED 13%. I’m a healthy all green at close of play on day one so now contemplating if I play again before the cut.
Biggest postive mover on the day, Tiger, IP moved 6%, biggest negative Mickleson, IP moved -7%.
US Masters on the Iphone
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2009
Just downloaded the US Masters Iphone app and I must say this is superb. A lot of other sports events could take a leaf out of the US Masters book and produce a similar app. No excuse now for not keeping in touch with all aspects of the tournament. Great stuff!
Master the masters
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on April 9th, 2009
While golf isn’t a main sport for me I do like to have a play around at some of the bigger tournaments. Here are a couple of hints for you.
It’s almost impossible for the favourite NOT to drift at some point during the tournament. So laying the favourite is a good strategy. Tiger woods always makes me nervous, but when you look at the game of golf you would need the favourite to have a perfect round and no dropped shots and no contenders for the price to only come in. As anybody who plays golf knows, that’s virtually impossible. A good round can be destroyed At 4′s Woods is more or less the same sort of price he has been in previous circumstances but you have to wonder how he will perform in his first major since his knee problems. Ever the professional, you wouldn’t bet on Woods having a mare. But taking an impassionate view it would be a fairy tale for him to blitz the field over four days.
Luck can play a big part in majors and one interesting aspect of stroke play golf is the cut. After two days you will lose a big chunk of the field when and how this happens can create opportunity if you back or lay the field. You often get complete outsiders coming in on the crest of a wave and this allows you to catch a big price and lay off at much smaller values. I often back 25% of the field at larger prices and hope that a big outsider has a good run at some point. If this comes early I will trade out, but often the cut will increase the chances of a profit. Even if you use tiny amounts of money backing something in the hundreds and trading off at lower prices can produce excellent results.