Posts Tagged us masters
A busy day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2010
I haven’t chosen a good week to get the flu, it was such a busy day today. I really only performed at a fraction of my true capacity. The football was good last night and the golf but I watched little of either. My golf position will not mature till the end of today’s round so I will have to rise on Saturday morning to close that out. Fantastic to see Tom Watson move from odds of 1000 to just 100 on the first day. Surely we won’t see Turnberry again, it would be amazing; especially on such a tricky course. Tiger has picked up where he left off so his odds now reflect that.
The first day of Aintree was a bit of a let down. There is something weird happening in these markets so we capture a ton of data yesterday and will analyse it today. Hopefully we can learn from yesterday and move forward today, we have to nail it ahead of the Grand national on Saturday.
I’ve cancelled my appointments of today and will take the morning off to try and build up some energy for this afternoon.
US Masters
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 8th, 2010
Picking a winner in any major golf tournament is a very, very tricky task. There are only a few strokes between the top of the leader-board and being out of contention. Any body who has played golf will know that a few strokes difference is only a hook, slice or shank away.
Anybody who has been on my course recently should know the angle I will be taking on this event. But the great unknown here is how Woods will perform? This will complicate matters significantly. Typically Woods would have been at much shorter odds if this was a ‘normal’ tournament but with all this stuff going in his personal life he opened at around fives and has drifted to 7′s. If he gets off to a good start then I think the market will shorten him up quickly, but if he doesn’t then his odds will slowly drift to ‘Mickelson’ type odds. I think a lot will depend on how relaxed he is at Augusta and how the crowd take to him. I’ll be watching the first round to try and get a feel for that. As people know I’m likely to avoid the front of the field but there is bound to be a lot hinging on how Woods plays so whether you want to or not, you won’t be able to avoid how his odds affect the rest of the market. I was sort of hoping he wouldn’t play, but it will be interesting to see how things unfold. I feel the fact he has returned so soon shows you his true personality and intent, he wants to win.
I have included a graph for this years US masters. for how the odds moved on Woods in previous masters, please view the thread on the forum.
Tiger woods 2010 US Master before the start
Masters first day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2009
As expected Tiger drifted a bit before finishing strongly. I say a bit, at level stakes he moved 200% and now he is at much shorter prices. A good opportunity to green out, he looks in good form.
If you had dutched the ‘favourites’, all under 50′s including Tiger in this case. You would have LOST 11% of your stake value at the close of day one. In contrast if you had backed those ranging from 100-500 you would have GAINED 13%. I’m a healthy all green at close of play on day one so now contemplating if I play again before the cut.
Biggest postive mover on the day, Tiger, IP moved 6%, biggest negative Mickleson, IP moved -7%.
US Masters on the Iphone
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2009
Just downloaded the US Masters Iphone app and I must say this is superb. A lot of other sports events could take a leaf out of the US Masters book and produce a similar app. No excuse now for not keeping in touch with all aspects of the tournament. Great stuff!
Master the masters
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2009
While golf isn’t a main sport for me I do like to have a play around at some of the bigger tournaments. Here are a couple of hints for you.
It’s almost impossible for the favourite NOT to drift at some point during the tournament. So laying the favourite is a good strategy. Tiger woods always makes me nervous, but when you look at the game of golf you would need the favourite to have a perfect round and no dropped shots and no contenders for the price to only come in. As anybody who plays golf knows, that’s virtually impossible. A good round can be destroyed At 4′s Woods is more or less the same sort of price he has been in previous circumstances but you have to wonder how he will perform in his first major since his knee problems. Ever the professional, you wouldn’t bet on Woods having a mare. But taking an impassionate view it would be a fairy tale for him to blitz the field over four days.
Luck can play a big part in majors and one interesting aspect of stroke play golf is the cut. After two days you will lose a big chunk of the field when and how this happens can create opportunity if you back or lay the field. You often get complete outsiders coming in on the crest of a wave and this allows you to catch a big price and lay off at much smaller values. I often back 25% of the field at larger prices and hope that a big outsider has a good run at some point. If this comes early I will trade out, but often the cut will increase the chances of a profit. Even if you use tiny amounts of money backing something in the hundreds and trading off at lower prices can produce excellent results.