Posts Tagged us open
Awesome match
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 10th, 2011
At last, a real classic match to talk about at the US Open. Djokovic through to the final after defeating Federer, again, in the semi final from two match points down. A great trading match as well, with some clear cut entry and exit points.
Hasse vs Murray
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 2nd, 2011
Final day of a busy week
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 18th, 2011
Well done to Rory McIlroy who continued to rip through the US Open. Unfortunately this scuppered my trade which needs a competitive field to work. At 1.40ish this leaves only one possible strategy, to back or lay McIlroy. I reckon most people will lay McIlroy given his blow up in the US Masters. It’s a clear fact however, that the error most people make is to take past trends and extrapolate them into the future. Rather than go on gut instinct, I’m going to knock up a spreadsheet this morning and see just what McIlroy has to do to hold onto his six shot lead over 36 holes. I reckon he has learned from his Augusta disaster, he certainly interviewed well last night.
Ascot was tougher yesterday, but I’m well ahead of last year year; I have done well to learn from my experience last year. I don’t think I’ll be able to manage a record but you never know. I’ve aimed for my second best ever and will see where I end up. I managed to pick up some decent results from other races yesterday so that balanced things out. Overall it’s been a good week.
Royal Ascot / Open Golf Thursday
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf, Horse Racing on June 17th, 2011
Another good day in the bag for Royal Ascot, but I left it late today. I didn’t get a real blockbuster race till near the end of the card. I had to work much harder than yesterday and I took my foot of Betdaq, as working harder meant I couldn’t keep focus on two exchanges effectively. I did broaden my activity out on Betdaq though to other races and they worked well. So after Ascot I’m going to continue my work there.
I did have a hiccup mid afternoon when my Internet connection went down. Quick as a flash I went to my back up connection and continued, but I never found out why it was only my main machine that failed. A quick reboot between races brought it back to life.
Overall, The weather made the markets a bit jumpy and there were some real moves around. The biggest was when the trainer of a horse came on and said his horse was unlikely to win because of the ground. See the graph below for what happened next. The weather has been incredibly poor this week and heavy rain has set in again this morning. So I think we could be in for another tricky day today unfortunately.
I got off to a great start on the US open golf, so it looks like it is going to be a very good week indeed. Here is a list of the top ten +ve movers overnight.
Rory McIlroy – 23 to 3.8
Charl Schwartzel – 80 to 14.5
Sergio Garcia – 90 to 25
Y. E. Yang – 170 to 24
Graeme McDowell – 70 to 28
Bubba Watson – 55 to 38
Louis Oosthuizen – 250 to 32
Brandt Snedeker – 70 to 38
Jason Day – 46 to 36
Stewart Cink – 100 to 50
For a full list of movers, visit the forum.
US Open golf
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on June 16th, 2011
I love the majors as they very often throw up some excellent opportunties. So while things are very busy at the moment, I will be taking time out today to open up with some positions on the US open.
The Blue Course at Congressional is longer than when previous majors were held there and the par has been reduced to 71. That is almost certaintly going to make the scoring much more competitive and the scores lower. Should be interesting.
Well done Nadal
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 14th, 2010
Well done to Rafa Nadal who completed a career grand slam this morning, UK time, at the US Open. He looked good value for the win, though I only stayed up till 11pm to watch it, but at that point the rain stopped play. I looked at the recording and spreadsheet data this morning for the part I missed. It didn’t appear to restart till 1am this morning.
It’s been a good trading tournament and I took forward my Wimbledon experiance by testing the market further using Tennis Trader. As a consequence, I’ve uncovered some new ideas I hadn’t thought of before. I’ll look to take those forward in the remainder of the Tennis season.
Last night Tennis trader highlighted a wonderful opportunity with Nadal serving at 1-2 in the second set. It pointed out a possible 12 tick move for laying Nadal, with only a two tick loss if he held. Nadal promptly lost his serve and the price moved out 12 ticks. I have a lot more confidence now when I am on a Tennis match, which fits in with my general approach to modelling a market thoroughly before participation. I am currently working on new models for new sports at the moment. Bear in mind, no matter what you model, you still have to anticipate and that’s a useful skill too!
Lucky unluckiness
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 13th, 2010
Was really looking forward to watching the US open final Tennis on Sunday when………….. boom! All the power goes in the house.
I think SSE have done a bad job on the electrics around here as once a year the same thing happens. I knew what would be coming next, a few hours later a van would arrive dig up the road and replace the underground cabling. After chasing for a few hours I got a positive answer that this would happen, but the van didn’t arrive till the early hours. So last night I suffered major roadworks all night outside the house.
While the power outage was unlucky it was more frustrating not being able to watch the Tennis. However, it wasn’t long before I started to get messages through that the final was unlikely to get a go ahead due to rain. Looks like I will get the chance after all!
Note the drift on Nadal because of the delay. No doubt caused by the fact that Djokovic will now have an extra day to recover from his epic win against the fading Federer. £9.5m matched already, £8.4m on Nadal.
Trading Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 9th, 2010
The US open has provided some excellent trading opportunities so far and there are probably many more to come as we reach the more competitive stages of the tournament. Tonight the Wawrinka v Youzhny match looks particularly interesting, especially with the way Wawrinka has been playing.
If you get the right set up, trading a service game is a particularly good strategy. With Tennis Trader you will also know what chance the server has of winning the game and your up and downside expectancy as well. This is a significant improvement on guess work! Video embedded below….
Just goes to show
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 5th, 2010
It aint over till the fat lady sings as they say. Trading the Murray v Wawrinka match well this evening and managed to lay some off some of the profit on Murray at very short odds, looking for a Wawrinka fight back. I got one and Murray really let his head drop when broken twice in the third set. He really looked on his way out of the third set and possibly the match. Murray called on the trainer during the next break.
With Wawrinka dominant, Murray’s odds shot out from an almost certain win to 2.70′s. Wawrinka had a tricky moment and called a medical time out, cue a dramatic change in odds!
Fun in the sun
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 2nd, 2010
It’s hot in New York at the moment and that’s thrown up some decent markets in the US Open. Nobody seems sacred in the heat and several contenders are already out, but Murray put in a good performance.
I’ve traded the US Open a lot more this year, mainly thanks to being able to ultilise Tennis Trader. For some time I’ve wanted to trade Tennis more often, so it was an important tool to have before I could trade with increased confidence. My instinct has always been to model sports as best I can before I get heavily involved in them. When you model you can participate in a market based on facts, rather than ‘feel’. For a fair while I’ve used a spreadsheet for Tennis, but this was cumbersome and not fast enough. Now we have put Tennis Trader into Bet Angel its helped a lot!
At the end of the day you can sit and stare at a market for years to try and understand how odds move, but having some stats right in front of you is always going to be immensly helpful and it also cuts out a lot of experimentation. I’ve learnt a lot from being able to mess around with different scenarios endlessly. The main purpose I use it for is to see what the score needs to be to fulfilled to reach an upside target, but I’ll also look ahead before I enter the market to see what downside I could let myself in for! This has allowed me to trade with increased confidence and larger stakes. One interesting thing I have noticed is how, when the odds drift slightly from the forecast, you can see that the market is changing opinion on a player. I’d never really noicted that before and is often providing a good entry point to the market.
I’m really looking forward to the next few rounds!
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 16th, 2010
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I will be keep tabs on Blackpool.
Liverpool’s match against Arsenal was interesting and it played out pretty much as expected. Liverpool didn’t want to lose and neither did Arsenal. But Arsenal were lucky in the end to get the point. I still don’t think that Liverpool are title challengers.
Andy Murray did a fantastic job in defeating Nadal and Federer on his way to the title in Toronto. You shouldn’t read too much emphasis on this title. Most elite athletes will focus on key objectives. Nadal will be very focused on the US open in this tournament will have been a prep for that but not the real deal. Both Nadal and Federer will not be too disappointed at losing. But an excellent win nonetheless for Murray given his path to the title.
I got some kudos at the weekend for correctly predicting the result and score from Portsmouth vs Reading match. The local newspaper asked me to do a write up. So I guess I will be asked again until my luck runs out!
US Open Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 15th, 2009
Last night rounded off a great US Open for traders. With an unseeded player winning the womens, defeating the two Williams on the way and Federer losing the mens final, it’s been a great tournament. Federer was around 1.30′s to win last night but that looked under pressure when a call was overturned by Hawkeye and the match seemed to turn from that point. I think that the last grand slam has probably been the best trading fodder all year, in what has been a good year.
There is a good summary on the BBC website: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/jonathanoverend/2009/09/so_what_will_be_your.html
Bizarre finish in US open
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 13th, 2009
Serving to save the match at 15-40 Serena williams explodes and hands the match to Clijsters. Never seen that before. Unfortunately, I was at a wedding reception and missed last nights matches but caught up this morning. Remarkable come back so far by Clijsters! I’m pleased to see Wozniaki in the final as I earmarked her a little while ago as one to watch. Still recovering from a late night so I haven’t really looked in any depth at anything today, will just chill instead.
US Open tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 11th, 2009
I tend to perform better in the early parts of tournaments as I benefit exponentially from shocks. Also, as the tournament progresses, its easier to make mistakes in close matches. One thing that has caught my eye is the rain delayed match from last night. I think the Gonzalez / Nadal match has the possibility of throwing up some interesting characteristics when they return.
I have always been a fan of taking a position during enforced breaks or initiating one at least. It’s so important to stay in the zone when you are playing at such a high level of sport that an enforced break can often throw up opportunities. One to keep your eye on.
Murray mullered
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 8th, 2009
Andy Murray was completely outclassed this evening in New York. Cilic dominated the match to win in three straight sets and fairly easily. Despite only have a first serve percentage of around 30% in the second set, Cilic still dominated a poor Murray to cruise to victory. The warning signs were there from the off and the second set confirmed Murray’s error strewn display.
Even after taking the first set you could still Lay murray at 1.30′s and he never really got into the game. Pre off £2m was traded on Murray at 1.08 & 1.09. A boon for low layers and as I mentioned the other day even if the favourite goes on to win its quite possible to trade out at break even or a profit. If the favourite doesn’t, the upside is huge. Federer is now odds on to win the title again and Del Potro is looking now looking quite interesting.
US Open Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 3rd, 2009
When I have a look at a Tennis match I am always looking for where the biggest potential upside is. Tennis is scored in such a manner that reversals in fortune occur with quite remarkable regularity. With these reversals come very sharp movements in odds. Bartoli vs Clijsters is a good example from yesterday evening, after the racing!
Clijsters started at 1.30ish (I missed the exact start) and as Bartoli grew in confidence Clijsters price moved all the way out to 2.30′s, a 100% trade. That was the high point for Bartoli as she eventually called on the trainer and slumped from that point onwards. By levelling the match Clijsters moved back to her starting price and onward from there.
I like opposing the favourite in a match as there is always tons of upside available and your downside is clearly definable. If you look at the match that followed the Clijsters match you can see how it is possible to still escape with a profit even if the favourite whitewashes his opponent.
Del Petro was priced at 1.05 to beat his compatriot Monaco, so I offered up some money to lay Del Potro at 1.05 which was matched. If Del Potro took the first set then his priced would come in a bit but if he got off to an indifferent start his price would shoot out. As it was, he got of to a comforable start and Monaco never really got into it, though he did fight hard on the first few Del Potro service games. This meant it was easy for me to trade out for a small profit despite the fact it was obvious no upset was on the cards. Only a tiny profit, but of course if Monaco had broken Del Potro then the price would have really started to move. A nice set up, lots of potential profit but little downside, in fact none at all. That’s why Tennis is such a nice sport to trade given the right setup.
The fall of Federer
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 1st, 2008
You couldn’t have missed the news that Roger Federer lost again this week and is about to lose his status as the worlds number one tennis player. Cincinatti is not Federers favourite venue, he lost to Murray there two years ago and he also struggled in the prior round against Ginipri (See the Betfair chart). Putting those facts aside, what’s behind his slump in form?
Having played a lot of sport when I was young I think I know the answer. I am also confident it applies to most top athletes. In simple terms its psychology and physiology.
Physiology
Psychology
I was good at sport but a bit of a generalist; In another life I am sure I was a decathelete! I never really had the support to get above county level but I enjoyed my sport and set myself some stiff challenges. In hindsight I didn’t set the bar high enough and I achieved a number of my targets quite easily. Knowing that I could never get to the much higher level I lost a bit of ethusiams and my performance waned. I remember watching David Duval push Tiger Woods close in the British Open, a year later he pulled it off and won the event. From that point on his form collapsed. It’s remarkable how often you see that, but especially in golf which can punish even the slightest dip in spectacular fashion.
Targets and achievements are important motivators in sport. Beating an opponent, achieving a ranking, or something you dreamed of as a child can really drive a competitior forward. Upward momentum has a dramatic effect on performance. In contrast being at the top and slipping can be a problem. Those shots you used to attack, that flag you could reach suddenly becomes a little harder. Your confidence is dented and knowing your prior performance wasn’t as good, or knowing that there is even more on the next shot than before, doesn’t help you perform.
You often find atheletes quitting while at the top of their game. From both aspects I have pointed out, this makes sense. It’s unlikely that similar heights will continue to be reached in future years and being remembered as a supreme champion writes you into the history books.
From a practical perspective for quite a few years the low backers on Federer have had a field day, but for some time I have recommend laying him. Regardless of his past skill the future is never certain for an athelete and backing at low odds when somebody has been at their peak for some time is a dangerous game. Laying at low odds has limited downside and lots of upside whereas a lot of atheletes experience the opposite effect at the top of their game. Federer still has a lot to offer, but it looks like he is now someway from invincible.