Posts Tagged weather
Weather there is opportunity
Posted by Peter Webb in Darts, Horse Racing on February 10th, 2012
Despite the poor weather and disruption to the sporting schedule there are still a lot of opportunities around. Yesterday seemed a surprisingly good day on the racing and Meydan helped a lot, no snow in Dubai! This morning there was some Aussie racing on first thing, so that’s set me up nicely for this afternoon.
I live not too far from Newbury and when I rose bright and early this morning I walked out to the nearest field, which was covered in snow, and when my foot couldn’t break the surface and given the forecast, I figured that Newbury would not go ahead. So I’ve made more betting on ‘will racing go ahead’ than I probably could have done at the meeting. Shame to see the meeting abandoned but this sort of bet is a nice hedge at this time of year. Sometimes some of the best opportunities are literally on your doorstep!
Last night was the premier league darts as well and we had some absolutely cracking matches. Some of the best darts I have seen in a while. The last match of session went from 6-0 up to a 7-7 draw, fantastic stuff. It was well worth the effort of tuning in on Thursday evening and I’ll be back again for some more if I have the opportunity.
I tweeted my activity in the darts and also my thoughts on the racing at Newbury, so tune into twitter if you want timely information. That said it’s half term next week so I expect I will probably be a bit quieter while I spend some time with the kids.
Opportunity through adversity
Posted by Peter Webb in General, Greyhound racing, Horse Racing on February 8th, 2012
OK, so it looks like there will be no ‘real’ racing in the UK for a while. But rather than bemoan your fortune use the opportunity to experiment, examine and look for new ideas or opportunities.
Quite a few years ago I got into the mode of taking time off in February. I learnt that it was the lowest yielding month of the year and part or all of it could easily be skipped without too much impact. So I repeat that each year. It’s half term next week, so I’m looking forward to spending some quality time with the kids.
If you have no plans to take a break use your time effectively anyway. Download some spreadsheets, fiddle with data, create and link some spreadsheets to Bet Angel, play around with the Automation tool. Try out greyhounds, experiment in different sports.
Sometimes a break is a great way to refresh your mind and get some new ideas and inspiration. From the depths of winter in February things start to perk up and then it justs get better and better, especially in 2012. So take the opportunity to do something different even it that is taking a break. Plenty to be getting on with this year.
Snow way
Posted by Peter Webb in General on February 5th, 2012
UK racing cancelled, a few football matches on. But just over that hill there, there is a ton of snow and some kids waiting for me to push them down it. Not a difficult choice of what to do this afternoon. Besides, we will be shattered after a few hours of this!
Enjoying little pleasures like this while you can.
Big week ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing, News on December 5th, 2011
You may read this headline and wonder what on earth I am on about as there isn’t anything amazing happening this week. OK a few high profile things like the Champions League football, but generally just bits and bobs as we descend headlong into the winter.
This time last year however, we were well in the grip of an incredibly cold spell and it pretty much wiped out all the sports action. So this year we are assured of a really good week. Well, at least in comparison to last year anyhow! That’s why I have a big week ahead.
Even this obscure reference to the weather reveals something about the way markets work. When we have a cold winter people anticipate another cold winter the following year. Judging by the number of snow shovels being sold at my local Tesco’s people are making the same mistake this year. Last year was a 30 year odd exception and just because it was bad last year doesn’t mean it will happen this year. Yes there is a demonstrable chance it will, but it is most likely that it wont.
In all markets I watch, there is a common propensity for people to look at the most recent history and start projecting that forward. This often results in demand overshooting in either direction. Identify this overshoot, have the mindset to swim against the crowd and its possible to profit from this behaviour. It’s work wonderfully well for me over the years.
Go short snow shovels!
Fair weather
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 21st, 2011
Well what a start to spring we have had in the UK! It’s more like the summer at the moment, not that this will impress people in warming climates, but it’s a welcome period after a very cold winter. Having flown away to warmer places in February, it’s been a good start to the year. No seasonal disorder for me this year!
The racing markets have been better in April as well, so the weather on that front is improving. But we have noticed a shift in the longer term weather patterns here. More news when we finish our work in this area. The dawn of evening racing has given me a chance to fill out the P&L with a few more races and I had a better day yesterday, but some of the evening racing is exceptionally weak this year. Turnover is falling on a lot of these races. Some of the day time stuff isn’t great either, for a prime example look at today’s racing. Not a single UK card of 10 runners or more, that is exceptionally poor. So poor actually that I may take today off. With some decent action around the Easter holidays, no racing on Friday, decent weather and kids off school, some time out looks like a 1.01 shot. Enjoy Easter!
Some winter cheer
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 26th, 2010
One look at the racing card will echo what you will have seen for the last month or so, abandoned racing. It’s the worst period I have known in my ten years on Betfair, pretty bleak. Boxing day usually brings a whole slew of opportunity and some top quality action at Kempton. Today, out of the 11 meetings due to take place today, only one hasn’t been abandoned as I write this, and there is a real prospect of that remaining fixture being lost. This has be costing racing a fortune.
On the upside I was up early this morning to watch the Ashes and feeling there was value in England, see yesterday’s blog, I was lovely and green when I rose to watch the match. I also did of a bit of racing in Caulfied and Randwick to top up the account.
It looks like a thaw is about to set in this week but the forecast is ominous again at the moment for the end of the week. Let’s hope the weather returns to normal again and we don’t experiance a ’63 winter again. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to have a normal day!
Something from nothing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 18th, 2010
Hey, it’s been tough lately but that’s no reason to give up completely. Yes, you can be relaxed if you have worked hard during the peak season, but there is still opportunity out there; even if somewhat reduced.
Despite running around to do the last few elements of organisation ahead of Christmas I sat down behind my screen for the odd moment yesterday to keep my hand in on the racing. Not a great total but I know a lot of people who would be happy with it. I averaged £20 a race which is no great shakes, but it soon adds up when you string a few together. I probably only spent less than five minutes on each race so the other way you could look at it was that I had to commit just over an hour of my time to do it. When you look at it that way, it’s not too shabby. I also ran some stuff on a spreadsheet to gather some market data for later analysis.
Keeping your hand in can be useful but you should also use this spare time do more research, look at other sports, read up on some material etc. Being effective at anything is like making a house, you have to lay the foundations at some point. Go build some foundations!
Cheltenham didn’t bust
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 10th, 2010
Phew, things worked out OK today. Nothing spectacular for sure, but £560 from 14 markets is a useful return to the fold. Nearly all that came from Cheltenham, so the prospect of a decent day looks on the cards with the twilight and evening racing to come.
Cheltenham or bust!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 10th, 2010
With most of the racing lost to the weather once again it looks like the week will rest on Cheltenham for most racing traders. It’s a high risk strategy as there is no gaurentee that Cheltenham will provide favourable markets, especially with little infront or behind of it. Already Channel Four have asked for the times to be put back so they can cover the meeting, that’s going to impact things as well. Lets hope that when the races get underway properly they provide some good trading fodder. Good luck if you are giving them a go this afternoon.
No end in sight
Posted by Peter Webb in Greyhound racing on December 9th, 2010
Just been browsing the Met Office web site for news on when the cold weather will end. Unfortunately, despite a respite at the weekend, it looks like it is still here for a while. The main issue being a high pressure in the Atlantic blocking progress of a westerly airstream.
I was on fire this week last year and could do no wrong, difficult to be on fire this year. On a daily basis there is very little to be done, it’s not worth me doing the odd all weather meeting here or there, so my focus is other sports.
I’ve always enjoyed trading on football and there are some intuitive strategies to be had. I mailed out a list of videos last night. I’ve also returned to Greyhounds during this period to try to develop that a bit further. I suggest you revisit both if you are looking for things to do. For racing traders Greyhounds will feel different, but generally familiar territory.
Don’t forget, you shouldn’t feel guilty taking a break. If you have worked hard during the summer, there is no reason to beat yourself up for taking time off now. You have to bank the good times for moments like these and a little sacrifice of leisure time in the summer can more than be made up in the winter with little impact on your bottom line.
I can’t actually remember such a barren period for the horse racing markets and the Met Office reckon the current period is setting records which date back to 1993. So it’s a period that probably hasn’t been seen in the betting exchange era. After a really good year it looks like I will fall at the final hurdle and have a rubbish December. Knocking 1/12th off your year isn’t an ideal scenario, but there is little that can be done about it. It’s really annoying as I really pushed the boat out this year and it looks like the final numbers will be out of my hands. I don’t think I have the energy to put as much effort into next year and I also have commitments planned out in the next couple of years, so I think I will have to be happy with 2010 for a while.
Still, who knows what is around the corner? Hopefully some sunshine!
I'm not dreaming of a white christmas
The week that wasn’t
Posted by Peter Webb in Greyhound racing, Horse Racing on December 6th, 2010
I picked a good week to be ill last week. Never will a chest infection and fever be so well timed!
It’s never fun to be ill but with so much racing cancelled last week and some football, there was little going on in the markets. It can be really tough making money sometimes but a complete absense of opportunity obviously isn’t going to help either. But I actually quite enjoy the lack of pressure to perform and the chance to do something else. I’ve been working so hard for so long that I’d sort of forgotten what a normal life is like!
Another problem I also face, is that on the days where there is one meeting on the card, it’s really tough to get enough out of it to make an material difference. I’ll often just pass on those days and focus on investing instead. Sometimes even two low quality meetings can exhibit the same issues. But I can’t really complain, as this is an issue of scale.
I managed to pull in some reasonable results over the weekend, but other than that I didn’t do much. The snow and ice prevented me from getting far in the car either so it’s been a funny sort of week. For those solely into horse racing its been a bit of a disaster but these weeks are very rare. I can’t remember when the week was so bad from a racing perspective.
It would be a disappointing end to the year if the weather continues like this. I had a good December last year so it would be financially costly this time around. You would guess continued bad weather unlikely, but we need that jet stream to move soon to have a hope. If you are suffering on racing, take time to look at others markets such as greyhounds and football. Both present reasonable opportunities and if you are doing nothing else, they are worth a look.
A rare sight last week
Speechless
Posted by Peter Webb in Greyhound racing, Horse Racing on November 29th, 2010
You could claim to be speechless about the prospects of racing this week. It looks like only the ‘all weather’ racing will survive, with all the other courses likely to struggle. But this title refers to my inability to speak well this week thanks to flu. Time for a break!
[Edit : Got a text from my local school saying there were 72 children off with the same thing, I hope you don't get it]
Back to the weather, it’s not uncommon for weeks like this in the winter and they are well factored into my plans. But if you are just starting out it can be depressing. As I stated in a previous post, I worked hard to bank some good times in the summer, so I can comfortably sit this out. But it is unusual this year in that we faced the same issue early in the year. As a result, lost meetings will probably set me back a good five figures in 2010. However, I’m already up on last year so everything is a bonus from here, but the lack of racing is going to deliver much less upside than could have been possible. It would be nice to end the year on a flourish.
With the lack of racing and the flu I will probably spend this week doing other things and a bit more research. It will be a good opportunity to get Christmas shopping out of the way and generally have some R&R. I will probably do some more work on the greyhounds, as this is an area where I am probably not performing at full capacity and they don’t seem to mind the cold, so it will be interesting to have a play. I’ve got an impending office move to plan as well. Bad weather is inevitable now and again, so if you push the boat out in the summer don’t fret in the winter, it’s inevitable. It’s difficult on the tough days to have a result that makes any material differnce to me so I’m not going to worrying about losing the odd day or two.
Use this time to do other things, other sports or to push forward on new projects or research. If you have snow and kids, then go out and enjoy it!
Freezing Folkstone is on, off, on, no its definitely off! Not a surprise.
Foggy trading
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 30th, 2009
Foggy but successful