Posts Tagged wimbledon
The world cup effect?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 10th, 2010
We noticed recently that the racing markets have picked up a bit recently. So I thought I would look to see if volume had been affected by Wimbledon and the World Cup. I picked a day when England were playing and looked to see if volumes had dropped.
You can see the gap on the graph, but this was mainly caused by the first race not reaching the same volume as the last race, last year. If you adjust the graph for that fact, there is actually little difference between the two sets of data. Basically volumes didn’t drop because of the World Cup. If felt like that in the markets, so I think I can summarise by saying that while the volume didn’t drop the type of activity did seem to change. It could be a coincidence but it certainly felt different. Now these markets are at or near their end things seem to have reverted back to their old pattern.
An interesting observation.
No pleasure
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 3rd, 2010
OK, so I got the Netherlands win right, Murray’s defeat at Wimbledon and Forlan scoring with Uruguay qualifying for the semis. But other than the Netherlands win, the other two were a little bitter. A couple of cruicial points would have seen the Murray match take a different complexion and a long overdue UK mens finalist at Wimbledon. As for Ghana’s defeat, it would have been nice to see a win rather than that last minute ‘cheating’ drama. I am sure he could have got his head on the ball and saved football’s blushes. But there in a nutshell, in all three cases, is modern sport.
Busy at work on some new research next week and looking to spend some time analysing the whole of Wimbledon and the World cup. Should throw up some interesting stuff for sure.
Reaching a climax
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 2nd, 2010
Excuse the double entendre but both Wimbledon and the World cup are now reaching the critical stages.
Both Nadal and Murray know that they have a great chance to win Wimbledon if they get through the semi final. That said, Berdych is on fire at the moment as I write this. I can’t help but think Murray’s price is a little low given his opponent. The market is telling us there is only a 2.7% difference in ability given the odds, that doesn’t seem correct.
Brazil vs Netherlands is price at 2.32 goals with half a goal to Brazil. I don’t have a strong opinion on this one but instinct is telling me to look for an opportunity to lay Brazil. They haven’t come up against much yet and attitudes start to shift in the latter stages of a competition. Everybody knows they are only a couple of games away from glory. Should be an interesting match.
Uruguay vs Ghana is priced even tighter at 2.20 goals with half a goal to Uruguay. Forlan has been prominent in each game so far and seems on form, though I suspect lots of people would like Ghana to win. I think 2.20 goals is too low. Can’t wait for the Germany vs Argentina game!
Opportunities
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 25th, 2010
Opportunities are everywhere if you keep your eyes open. I feel I should always be constantly prodding the market to see if I can find new ones. Wimbledon this week has thrown up many, many opportunities but the pleasing thing is that I have found loads of new ones.
When the Isner/Mahut match was drawn at 59-59 I knew I had to do some work to find a way of profiting from the resumption. I’d fiddled around the edges on the day but not with any real intent. That evening I fired up Tennis Trader, worked through some simple scenario’s and put them to use the next day. I had one of those ‘doh!’ moments when I realised initially had missed a pretty obvious opportunity.
Again today, Isner is out on court. I was surprised to see him priced around evens after his efforts in that record breaking match. I just couldn’t see that this was a realistic price and it was quickly apparent that was the case. Opportunities are everywhere if you look. Next one is probably coming up in the North Korea vs Ivory coast match looking at the market.
Keep focused and they will shine out.
Just incredible
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 23rd, 2010
If you read this blog post in time turn your TV / Internet stream to Wimbledon to witness one of the most amazing matches ever in Tennis History. Mahut vs Isner, will it ever end?!?!
What a start!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 22nd, 2010
Wimbledon got off to an amazing start with a near shock elinimation of Federer. In the last ten years there have been lots of seeds falling early, but never the top seed. Reading from the year 2000 we had ranked players going out in the first round as follows. 7,16,9,2,12,11,6,22,4 and 17. Basically, anything is worth a lay. OK the odds at the off are probably an accurate representation of true chance of winning, but from there anything can happen in the match. You can rack up specutacular profits if an outsider comes into contention, for little risk. It is always worth a try.
I have to say though, I was suprised to see just how short his odds were when you consider that Falla almost took the first set off him at the French Open. It seems people have very short memories. Unfortunatley I was unable to trade yesterday afternoon and I am not well today so my week is really going to start tomorrow.
Incidentally Tennis Trader would have given you several excellent exit points in the Federer match yesterday.
Great end to Wimbledon
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 6th, 2009
What a fantastic tournament that was. Opportunities seemed to pop out of the tennis court all over the place and we finished with an epic final. £53m was traded on the final, £49m on Federer!
There were several opportunities to lay Federer at short odds and as the match wore on your could easily see it heading for a fifth set. During that fifth set it was very even, but as we strayed into the final stages of that titanic battle you could see Roddick weakening a little bit and Federer retaining his composure. I felt so sorry for Roddick who had really put in so much into these two weeks. At the end of the day Federer broke Roddick just once during the match, but that was enough for the championship. Before the match I went back and listened to an interview that Roddick did a couple of years ago with Jonathan Ross. I remember them talking about grass, clay and Federer. It turned out to be a useful hint of what was to happen.
With Roddick weakening during the latter stages of the fifth set you could easily see the market discounting this into the price of Federer. I eventually jumped on board Federer at 1.43 and just minutes later it was all over. Probably one of the better trades I had made for the tournament and it just happened to be the last.
My confidence in tennis trading is now on a high after such a decent French Open and Wimbledon. I’m glad I’ve put so much effort into the markets in the last couple of years. If you haven’t traded Tennis before, then give it a try. It’s great fun!
What has worked at Wimbledon?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 2nd, 2009
Laying short priced favourites has worked well this in the tournament. Also, several matches have thrown up some wonderful trading opportunities to do this not just once but many times over. Hewitt and Roddick yesterday was another great trading match.
Putting that aside, one of the best tricks this tournament has been to listen to the ex-legends of the game. It’s remarkable how well they have called a lot of the matches. Today is potentially another example of this. Navratilova said that Williams vs Dementieva would be a tight match, spot on. She also hinted that the other semi-final would not be so tight. So bear that in mind when you start looking at the second semi-final.
Wimbledon
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 22nd, 2009
Two weeks of excellent Tennis liquidity and trading await us. Take your chance to have a try at trading Tennis while it’s here, as the liquidity and range of opportunities are usually pretty big.
Please don’t forget that matches can last days if you are unlucky. So bear that in mind when you first get involved in a trade. You don’t want to get involved in something for a small profit that could trample over other opportunities. Likewise, you don’t want to get distracted by too many things at once, in either direction.
Looking at the women I have had my eye on Caroline Wozniaki for sometime. It’s a shame that she won Eastbourne as she was trading at 40′s before that win, she is now in the 20′s. She was definately value at 40′s but I’m not so sure at 20′s. In the mens draw it’s all about Federer and Murray but the look of the odds. But I fancy a play on an outsider making it to the later stages rather than an outright trade. Therefore I’m looking to dutch a chunk of the field and get my outsider that way. With Murray mania high, it’s going to be an interesting two weeks.
Nadal out!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 19th, 2009
Big news from SW19. With Nadal out that dramatically opens up the draw for Murray at Wimbledon. There is a good summary on the official Wimbledon site.
http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/news/articles/2009-06-19/200906191245412912140.html