Posts Tagged winner
Don’t pay till May
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 4th, 2010
It was only when my favourite football club got relegated that I started playing around in the relegation and promotion markets. Since then it has become a regular stamping ground for me during the season, especially at the start or end. People seem to have this wonderful propensity to put too much emphasis on recent results or events. Either that or they carry hopes that are just clearly out of whack with reality.
So far this year I have made some good trades on these markets including Liverpool, Portsmouth, Southampton and Blackpool. I’ve got Bolton wrong but got several others right, which more than covers the others. Plenty more trades to follow, I am sure.
With such dominant teams at in the top division it makes sense to look for lays in winners markets. This tends to work in your favour over time. Also, it’s very rare to get a team that completely dominates over a season so early leaders are often a good lay at the right price. In relegation markets, you often see newly promoted teams perform well initially before falling away in the second half of the season. Next season they will often a good price for relegation. Look for early performers to fade and skirt with relegation at some point. A sense of panic can ensue in the market with a bad run.
Over the last six seasons I’ve managed to predict who will finish the bottom team each year and I also try and predict all 20 finishing places, a pretty tough ask. However I have acheived a correlation of around 80% using some simple metrics. Currently those metrics tell me that West Ham shouldn’t finish bottom as there are better candidates for this slot. Also it tells me Blackpool are good value for relegation at their current price. They may escape but the market is pricing in too much at the moment. If you are not confident with nailing you colours to one selection, trying backing or laying multiple selections using the dutching or bookmaking tools in Bet Angel. That works well and offers less risk.
The only issue with these markets is they won’t be settled till next year. But that shouldn’t stop you from taking part in them as you will get a nice bonus in your account come May next year.
After a sublime start , Chelsea are currently undergoing a reality check
Winner at odds of 1000 at Wetherby
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 29th, 2010
Big shock in the 16:00 at Wetherby where the complete and utter rank outsider, Maoi Chinn Tire, won the race. I didn’t get this one but have bagged some before. £912 matched at 1000 before the off!!!
Is £113m too much?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 22nd, 2010
I see this enormous lottery jackpot has now been claimed.
I do wonder what is the point of gifting somebody so much money, especially in times of such austerity? I find it a little crass. I am sure the money could be put to excellent use in a number of ways, but gifting it to one person?!? I know there has to be an incentive to do the lottery, but I am sure most people would be very happy with much less. It’s difficult to reconcile such enormous wealth at these difficult times.
On the wider issue of gifts, I’m not a believer in inherited wealth. I think it destroys the essence of progress and creates an inverse incentive in an economic system. I think everybody needs an incentive to get out of bed in the morning and make their impact on the world. I don’t think inherited wealth or such large gifted sums can achieve that. You can’t take money to the grave, so I think those that have it should give some of it back or put it to effective use while still alive.
http://theweek.com/article/index/205802/warren-buffetts-billionaire-donors-club-by-the-numbers
Ryder Cup winner already settled
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 30th, 2010
Another great publicity stunt by Paddy Power who have already settled Europe as the 2010 Ryder Cup winners.
http://blog.paddypower.com/blog/index.php/2010/09/27/europe-win-the-ryder-cup-we-reckon/
They would have already known their liability so it’s effectively booked as a marketing expense. Of course they will get loads of publicity on it, such as people like me posting it on their blog! This is also something that Betfair would find difficult to do. Very imaginative folks over at PP.
Well done McCoy
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 10th, 2009
While I am having a break at the moment I am keeping in touch with things and was pleased to see Tony Mc Coy finally grab his 3000th winner yesterday. Got several texts from the guys in the office giving me the low down on activity. Looks like he almost got the 3000th early in the day except from a fall at the last. Looks like he traded in the region of 1.02 before crashing out. I bet there has been a lot of money on him in recent days. Look forward to getting back into the swing of things when I return.