Posts Tagged winter
Big week ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing, News on December 5th, 2011
You may read this headline and wonder what on earth I am on about as there isn’t anything amazing happening this week. OK a few high profile things like the Champions League football, but generally just bits and bobs as we descend headlong into the winter.
This time last year however, we were well in the grip of an incredibly cold spell and it pretty much wiped out all the sports action. So this year we are assured of a really good week. Well, at least in comparison to last year anyhow! That’s why I have a big week ahead.
Even this obscure reference to the weather reveals something about the way markets work. When we have a cold winter people anticipate another cold winter the following year. Judging by the number of snow shovels being sold at my local Tesco’s people are making the same mistake this year. Last year was a 30 year odd exception and just because it was bad last year doesn’t mean it will happen this year. Yes there is a demonstrable chance it will, but it is most likely that it wont.
In all markets I watch, there is a common propensity for people to look at the most recent history and start projecting that forward. This often results in demand overshooting in either direction. Identify this overshoot, have the mindset to swim against the crowd and its possible to profit from this behaviour. It’s work wonderfully well for me over the years.
Go short snow shovels!
Something from nothing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 18th, 2010
Hey, it’s been tough lately but that’s no reason to give up completely. Yes, you can be relaxed if you have worked hard during the peak season, but there is still opportunity out there; even if somewhat reduced.
Despite running around to do the last few elements of organisation ahead of Christmas I sat down behind my screen for the odd moment yesterday to keep my hand in on the racing. Not a great total but I know a lot of people who would be happy with it. I averaged £20 a race which is no great shakes, but it soon adds up when you string a few together. I probably only spent less than five minutes on each race so the other way you could look at it was that I had to commit just over an hour of my time to do it. When you look at it that way, it’s not too shabby. I also ran some stuff on a spreadsheet to gather some market data for later analysis.
Keeping your hand in can be useful but you should also use this spare time do more research, look at other sports, read up on some material etc. Being effective at anything is like making a house, you have to lay the foundations at some point. Go build some foundations!
Speechless
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 29th, 2010
You could claim to be speechless about the prospects of racing this week. It looks like only the ‘all weather’ racing will survive, with all the other courses likely to struggle. But this title refers to my inability to speak well this week thanks to flu. Time for a break!
[Edit : Got a text from my local school saying there were 72 children off with the same thing, I hope you don't get it]
Back to the weather, it’s not uncommon for weeks like this in the winter and they are well factored into my plans. But if you are just starting out it can be depressing. As I stated in a previous post, I worked hard to bank some good times in the summer, so I can comfortably sit this out. But it is unusual this year in that we faced the same issue early in the year. As a result, lost meetings will probably set me back a good five figures in 2010. However, I’m already up on last year so everything is a bonus from here, but the lack of racing is going to deliver much less upside than could have been possible. It would be nice to end the year on a flourish.
With the lack of racing and the flu I will probably spend this week doing other things and a bit more research. It will be a good opportunity to get Christmas shopping out of the way and generally have some R&R. I will probably do some more work on the greyhounds, as this is an area where I am probably not performing at full capacity and they don’t seem to mind the cold, so it will be interesting to have a play. I’ve got an impending office move to plan as well. Bad weather is inevitable now and again, so if you push the boat out in the summer don’t fret in the winter, it’s inevitable. It’s difficult on the tough days to have a result that makes any material differnce to me so I’m not going to worrying about losing the odd day or two.
Use this time to do other things, other sports or to push forward on new projects or research. If you have snow and kids, then go out and enjoy it!
Freezing Folkstone is on, off, on, no its definitely off! Not a surprise.
An ill wind….
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 26th, 2010
Tis an Ill win that blows no good, so they say. With an ill wind blowing down from the artic it looks like racing is going to suffer badly over the next week. Saturday is pretty much a wipe out by the look of it.
So….. Hopefully you can now see the context of this blog entry back in the summer.
I know it seemed odd to some that you would put trading first in these situations. But that week back in the summer will likely lead, excluding exceptionals, to 5 times or more than I am likely squeeze out of this week. Making hay while the sun shines has never been so apt! The good times in the summer can easily fund time off in the winter when opportunies are sparse. But when opportunity is available at each turn, you would have to mad to ignore it. That week and this should help you understand where I was coming from.
Trick or treat?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 31st, 2010
Last night the clocks went back and today we have racing that starts at midday(ish) and finishes at four. This signals the slide into a quieter period for racing.
There is still plenty of other sport to do and some decent feature races coming up, but some of the other stuff is less appealing. We also have the weather potentially posing a threat. So it’s time to hunker down and reset expectations and styles, to adapt to the winter.
If you are still on the rise you may not notice the shift in the winter, but if you are at the top of your game it’s pretty likely that you will. If you fit neither category then its still likely you will notice a difference. Everybody knows lower performance can be painful but if you are prepared for it then it should be easier to cope with. From best to worst month my activity drops 50% at this time of year on racing. This was a shock when it first happened to me, but now I know, I can accept this will happen. The best way to cope with this is to not chase opportunities that just don’t exist, the reason you can’t see them is that they are probably not there.
In short, as we head through the winter, don’t beat yourself up if you struggle now and again; it’s just part of the seasonal mix. It’s a trick, use it as a treat. Use the time productively to do other things either personal or professional, also research new areas. Both will pay big dividends in the long term.
Downhill all the way
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 20th, 2010
I’ve been having some fun trying to get my head around the winter Olympics when I can. I’ve picked on the the sports where a milliseconds lapse in concentration can hand the medal to somebody else. Basically just laying the current leader or red hot favourite in the hope that they make a mistake or somebody gets over the line a tenth of a second faster. I must admit I can’t quite get it right at the moment, but that is how you learn, by making mistakes.
I’ve done some research and listened to some of the legends like Franz Klammer for tips on who’s in form. I traded a fair amount on Brode Miller but he has just missed out on top spot twice with a silver and bronze. But it’s been quite fun and he has provided something good to trade off.
I’ll look again when the next big winter event comes around. Hoepfully I won’t have to wait for another four years as I think there is a lot of potential in these sports which are highly variable.
Six more weeks of winter?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 2nd, 2010
As legend would have it today is Groundhog day when a small(ish) furry animal predicts to residents if they are in for six more weeks of winter. While this is a north American tradition it seems to have its roots in Europe. Given the poor start to the year lets hope the various ceremonies around the world don’t see a shadow or if they do it’s a region forecast that won’t affect the UK.
Bleak mid-winter
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 6th, 2010
Cold weather, snow and ice isn’t ideal for any outdoor sports and in particular horse racing. Winter is generally a difficult time of the year but it seems that this winter is particulary cold.
The Met Office recently issued data that indicated December was the coldest in 15 years and the popular press is talking up the prospect of a very cold winter indeed. It’s difficult to be certain if it will be as bad as the forecasts, but hysteria is gripping the popular press and they are forecasting ‘One of the coldest winters in a 100 years’. Just glad that I overhauled my central heating last summer!
Given the winter of 1963 was particulary severe, it seems unlikely that this winter could be that bad. But it is a painful period if you are relying on sports markets. Winter is tough enough as it is without the weather being so poor.
Times much be tough, Betfair have even opened up a market on whether there will be ANY national hunt racing W/C 10th Jan.