Posts Tagged world cup
World Cup Cricket
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 31st, 2011
Some really massive matched amounts coming through these markets. New Zealand vs Sri Lanka reached £30m in matched bets and so did last nights big match between Indian and Pakistan.
I hadn’t considered doing much on this tournament but I’ll be taking a very keen interest in the final now given the level of activity on these matches. Advice to follow on another post.
2012 all over again?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 1st, 2010
Been keeping an eye on the winner of the 2018 world cup bid market. England are shortening up quite quickly and are now favourites to win the tournament. I hope they do, or else I will be a very old man by the time the World Cup tournament eventually comes, if it does at all, to England.
It’s very reminiscent of the London 2012 Olympic bid. Paris were in the lead for ages are looked nailed on to win the bid but London came surging through on the final few days thanks to a lot of effort by Lord Coe and his team. I wonder if history is about to repeat itself?
Spain will win
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 26th, 2010
While browsing the other night I found this really interesting peice: -
http://kn.theiet.org/magazine/issues/1008/predicting-football-1008.cfm
It’s quite rare to find some decent stuff on the Internet. It’s amazing how many experts are out there, despite there actually being very few people who can claim to be true experts. My definition, somebody who is willing to back up their rhetoric with hard cash!
Anyhow, this is an interesting peice and would have made an even better read before the world cup!
It’s over
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 12th, 2010
Last night finally saw the World Cup end.
It’s been a great couple of months but I’m exhausted, so I am personally glad to see the end of this busy period. It’s really great having such opportunities, but it’s impossible to work flat out like this for any length of time. Time for some recuperation and hindsight. It has been very rewarding though, with last week bringing in my second biggest week ever.
I’ve also gathered lots of data to look at and come up with some new ideas, so I am really looking forward to digging through this and expanding my repertoire. I thought it was interesting last night that just short of £23m was matched on the World cup final last night and that it rose to ‘only’ £34m by the end of 90 minutes. That’s less than I expected.
No sooner than it fades away than it’s back. The football season is already undewary again as the second round of UEFA champions league qualifying takes place this week. Next weekend we have some decent pre-season friendlies. It’s going to be a busy year!
The world cup effect?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 10th, 2010
We noticed recently that the racing markets have picked up a bit recently. So I thought I would look to see if volume had been affected by Wimbledon and the World Cup. I picked a day when England were playing and looked to see if volumes had dropped.
You can see the gap on the graph, but this was mainly caused by the first race not reaching the same volume as the last race, last year. If you adjust the graph for that fact, there is actually little difference between the two sets of data. Basically volumes didn’t drop because of the World Cup. If felt like that in the markets, so I think I can summarise by saying that while the volume didn’t drop the type of activity did seem to change. It could be a coincidence but it certainly felt different. Now these markets are at or near their end things seem to have reverted back to their old pattern.
An interesting observation.
Germany vs Spain
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 7th, 2010
The market is priced for 2.40 goals or thereabouts with a 1.20 goals to Spain. The Germans have stormed through to the semi final whereas the Spanish appear to have ground out results but both teams slipped up in the group stages.
Some interesting notes I’ve copied from elsewhere: -
- Victory at Euro 2008 was only Spain’s second win in eight competitive games against the Germans.
- Germany are unbeaten in three previous World Cup games against the Spanish.
- Overall, the two nations have met 20 times: Germany have won eight and Spain six, with six draws.
- Germany have reached this stage in six of the last eight World Cups.
- While Italy beat the Germans in 1970 and 2006, it is 52 years since a side other than the Azzurri defeated them at the semi-final stage.
I’ve always been a keen advocate of psychology over stats and I think the Germans definitely have the wind behind them. The Spanish have the weight of expectation on them as they are the first Spainish team to reach the semi finals of the World Cup. By contrast this will be Germany’s 11th world cup semi final and most German’s wouldn’t have expected that this time around.
I’m tempted to plump for a contrary trade by favouring the German’s to win a low scoring contest.
Uruguay vs Netherlands
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 6th, 2010
I think you would have to fancy the Netherlands in this match, which the market is doing by one goal. But it is also pricing in very few goals, just short of 2.30. So the market summarises this as a tight match with the Dutch should win.
I would secretly like a Germany / Netherlands final as it would add some serious spice to the mix, but I suspect Uruguay will feel they have an equal chance. A lot rests on Forlan, with a couple of suspensions this makes the match a stiffer task than they would like. If they do win, it will probably be through tactical nous. At least we know how the last penalty would be taken!
How many times do I have to say 'Don't dive!'
No pleasure
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 3rd, 2010
OK, so I got the Netherlands win right, Murray’s defeat at Wimbledon and Forlan scoring with Uruguay qualifying for the semis. But other than the Netherlands win, the other two were a little bitter. A couple of cruicial points would have seen the Murray match take a different complexion and a long overdue UK mens finalist at Wimbledon. As for Ghana’s defeat, it would have been nice to see a win rather than that last minute ‘cheating’ drama. I am sure he could have got his head on the ball and saved football’s blushes. But there in a nutshell, in all three cases, is modern sport.
Busy at work on some new research next week and looking to spend some time analysing the whole of Wimbledon and the World cup. Should throw up some interesting stuff for sure.
Reaching a climax
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 2nd, 2010
Excuse the double entendre but both Wimbledon and the World cup are now reaching the critical stages.
Both Nadal and Murray know that they have a great chance to win Wimbledon if they get through the semi final. That said, Berdych is on fire at the moment as I write this. I can’t help but think Murray’s price is a little low given his opponent. The market is telling us there is only a 2.7% difference in ability given the odds, that doesn’t seem correct.
Brazil vs Netherlands is price at 2.32 goals with half a goal to Brazil. I don’t have a strong opinion on this one but instinct is telling me to look for an opportunity to lay Brazil. They haven’t come up against much yet and attitudes start to shift in the latter stages of a competition. Everybody knows they are only a couple of games away from glory. Should be an interesting match.
Uruguay vs Ghana is priced even tighter at 2.20 goals with half a goal to Uruguay. Forlan has been prominent in each game so far and seems on form, though I suspect lots of people would like Ghana to win. I think 2.20 goals is too low. Can’t wait for the Germany vs Argentina game!
More about penalties
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 29th, 2010
Following the recent chatter on penalties, I note the absence of them so far! Somebody posted on the forum about a very useful tool that you can use.
I didn’t know this existed, so thanks to the poster for finding it. It confirms what I was talking about, but more importantly it could prove very useful if a match goes to penalties. This is because it allows you to examine all previous results from the penalty takers and savers. Very useful.
Ouch, that’s embarrassing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
I don’t think it needs any more comment really does it? Apparently the English league is the most competitive and highly paid in the world with some of the best individuals. And individuals they will remain!!!
I’ve consoled myself by smashing into a few horse races that followed the match, sorry about that! But one of them was the Irish Derby, too good to miss. Grabbing a few hundred will allow me to drown my sorrows tonight.
Obviously blatter is happy to see this time and time again
Coin flippers re-union at 3pm
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
Had a look at THE match stats this morning.
The market has priced in just a shade over two goals for the Germany vs England match. England have a 0.10 goal advantage. The market is pricing in a tight nervous affair where one goal could be enough, but a draw is the most likely result. Obviously if you share two goals amongst two teams then a draw is very likely.
I sense a nervous two hours come 3pm but having read the Germany press this morning, putting the rally calls aside, Germany seem equally nervous after there last two performances. This is where managers and tactics can make a big difference.
I won’t be taking a position during the match for obvious reasons, but will be trading pre-off. Good luck if you are having a go. Going to be a great day in the UK for watching the match, will it be a memorable one?
The maths behind penalities – Part Two
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
Yesterday we saw that goalkeepers are basically glory seekers, or at least showing that they understand the psychology of failing the right way. Today we give a final answer on what David James should do if faced by a German penalty today.
Often the best way to look at something is to turn it on it’s head. When we looked at penalities we saw that while kicks are randomly distributed, the goalkeepers actions are not. So lets look at when they get it right.
In the sample we were looking at, 32/268 penalties were ‘saved’, around 11%. Saved shots were reasonably equally distributed whether the taker sent them left right or down the middle. But, when you combine this with goalkeeping stats one thing really stands out. If the goalkeeper stands in the middle and a shot is sent in roughly that direction, it was saved 60% of the time. This is more than double the rate at which a goalkeeper who guesses right can save a kick. Obviously if a shot is sent left and the goalkeeper goes right the strike rate is err.. zero.
Whichever way you look at it, standing still is actually a good tactic. It’s difficult to reach the ball in a far corner from a good penalty taker, so it’s better to captialise on nervous takers who don’t want to risk missing. Of course this all depends on one penalty being independant from another. Let on that you are going to stand still and you increase the chance that the ball will not go down the centre. That is where it gets more complex, should your strikers assume the goalkeeper will dive or stand still? Logic tells you to send it into the corner but reality indicates that at least half the time the goalkeeper will dive that way. It all comes down to psychology. With England so fragile I would be tempted to suggest, just keep in on target and hit it hard. James should stand still and be prepared to get it in the neck for ‘not trying’. That should do the trick.
If you want to do more research ahead of today’s match I suggest you visit: -
http://www.penaltyshootouts.co.uk/
For the definite way to take a penalty, I’ll leave it to the master.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/2275796.stm
The maths behind penalities – Part One
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 26th, 2010
Groups stages, tight games, can’t afford to lose, Germany, England. This must only add up to one thing, penalties!
Are we going to suffer again, will there be the same agony as in prior years? Penalties is another area I have looked at and I think the findings may be of use to any prospective England goalkeeper facing a penalty, football traders may also benefit.
First off, you can reach some easy conclusions. From spot to net, the ball will travel just 12 yards and it is estimated that this will happen in about 0.30 seconds. Stikers should score from this distance! This also forces each goalkeeper to make a decision about what to do, BEFORE, the ball is struck; he has to anticipate which way to dive. He could dive left, right or stand still.
This is where a subtle peice of psychology comes into play, it is what I shall call the action / inaction bias. Imagine the scenario, you know that any goal in a match in the knockout stages will be significant and that by saving a penalty you will almost certainly have a significant impact on the match and on your status. What do you do? If you stand in the middle of the goal like a lemon you could be a national pariah if a goal is conceded. Dive spectacularly and tip it around the post and the praise will come flooding in. What happens is that the goalkeeper ends up facing the same dilemma and regret pang as a gambler or trader. The goalkeeper is fearing the negative consequences of his actions, rather than making a logical and reasoned choice. This fear is so overwhelming it has a strange effect. In 286 matches analysed, the goalkeeper dived in one direction or another 268 times. He went for glory 94% of the time. Did the goalkeeper make a logical choice? To do this you need to analyse where the ball went.
Over the same 286 matches the penalty taker more or less evenly distributed the shots left, right and centre either by design or accident. In the data I looked at there was a bias to the right hand side but there could be many reasons for that. Excluding the bias it was a random shot choice. Therefore the goal keepers definitely were making a sub-optimal decision by choosing to dive so often. Penalty takers struck the ball down the middle nearly 29% of the time, goalkeepers only stood there around 6% of the time! If you are a goalkeeper, standing idly would appear to be a decent choice but as shots were equally distributed then any random choice would be sensible.
If you are a striker then you should engage in some gamesmanship to encourage the goalkeeper to dive, then send the ball down the middle. But there is more logic to taking and saving and that’s what I will cover tomorrow….
That match
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 23rd, 2010
Given the gloom and doom I am almost tempted to back England this evening. But much of that depends on price and what the team looks like when it is announced. The match is priced for 2.56 goals with a 1.60 advantage to England, yeah right! England just haven’t looked a potent threat upfront and I think it’s optimistic to imagine a free flowing high scoring game, lets hope I am wrong!
If you look at the world cup so far though, the market has forecasted around 2.30-2.40 goals a game. On average, I am missing a few matches and not totally up to date, there has only been an average of slightly less than two. This is a low scoring competition! I had forecast this a few months ago when I wrote an article for a magazine. In 1998 there was an average of 2.67 goals, 2.52 in 2002 and 2.30 in 2006. This tournament could see a new low. I suspect this is just due to the fact that the teams are much more competitive now thanks to so many players whose home team is not even in their country of origin now.
Anyhow, come on England!
Not a joke
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 19th, 2010
Honestly, not a joke; but this is the book I am reading at the moment just before I go to bed. It’s actually a really good read and highly recommended for sports traders!
It does what it says on the tin
1.05 about to be turned over?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 19th, 2010
Should England pack up and come home? Traded at 1.05 to qualify last night must have those backers quivering. After failing to beat Algeria, which most teams in the English football league could surely achieve, has there ever been a more defining moment in English national football?
For many, many years we have had loads of great individuals but seemingly no team. Last night showed this up in clear light again and surely the time has come to stop picking individuals and go for a real footballing team. Everybody knows Gerrard and Lampard can’t play together. The Man Utd team is geared around supplying Rooney with chances, England is not. Last night was just a completely inept performance on a scale I have not seen before. At least Gerrard could see that and hung his head while admitting it wasn’t good enough, the less said about Rooney the better. With little to lose why not go radical and put Defoe and Crouch upfront, drop Rooney, Lampard and inject some real energy into the game. If we put out another lame performance, then I think we should scrap the whole thing and start again, we just can’t go on like this.
Over-reaction, maybe, but I did wait till this morning to write this and I think lots of people feel the same.
Some people paid a lot of money to watch that Wayne.
England’s fate already known
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 18th, 2010
When England step out onto the pitch this evening they will know what they need to do. If the USA get a good result against Slovenia, then England really need to dispatch Algeria with confidence. If not it all goes to the last game. I say this because the English will probably want to avoid the impressive Germans. No point in holding out for a draw in the knockout phase is there?
The US are priced at 2.20 goals against Slovenia with a 0.40 goal advantage. By a coincidence that is the same advantage as a normal match with home advantage, so the market is saying the US are effectively playing at home; well sort of! England are a much more generous 2.70 goals with a 2.00 goal advantage, they should win comfortably, should.
Two mitigating factors in play therefore before England kick off, the US result and how the German’s play in the first match of the day. If Capello is worth his salt he will use these two earlier results to really fire up the team. Which ever way these early matches go, I think it’s advantage England thanks to the timing.
Blunt start by England
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 12th, 2010
In fact, most of the matches have been pretty blunt, which seems to often be the case in the world cup early matches. England had a great chance to really get off to a good start after taking the lead so early, but I don’t feel there were aggressive enough going forward. England now need to convincingly win the next two games or they could end up on the wrong side of the draw.
No doubt the following image will sum up the match in the press tomorrow morning.
USA 1 – 0 England
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 11th, 2010
Not a premonition but a recollection of times gone past. Until England drew the US in the group stages I wasn’t even aware of this episode of sporting history. It seems England have always been under-performers, but perhaps were a bit unlucky on this occasion. You would get 17′s for a repeat performance tonight.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_v_United_States_%281950%29
Ratings for today: -
England vs US – Market is forecasting 2.50 goals with at least 1.70 to England, leaving a paltry 0.30 to the US.
South Korea vs Bankrupt Economy – Market is forecasting just 2 goals pretty evenly split. Should be an ‘interesting’ game.
Due to lack of data, i.e. neutral grounds etc. etc. It’s tough to give you a brilliant steer on similar matches in the past. I am much better at league football. There is more data and matches in league footbal, so that is where the bread and butter is. But, most matches similar to England’s have ended in comfortable wins for the stronger team. There is only one example from the, albeit small, data set that I have where the weaker team won and that was only by one goal.
I won’t be trading in-play on the England match as my emotions will probably get in the way, but I will on all other matches that I can.
England lose on penalities
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 7th, 2010
Not a prediction, this happened at the weekend. OK it’s only Soccer Aid, but losing in a penalty shoot out on the Sunday before World Cup week isn’t the best omen is it?
Still at least that’s out of the system, so it can’t happen in the world cup, can it? I can’t figure out why England players in any form can’t win a shoot out. Quite a few years ago I ‘qualified’ for a world cup tournament where I played for England in a football tournament organised by my then employers Compaq. Off we flew to Munich and made our way to the semi finals where, you guessed it, we lost on a penalty shootout. Maybe it’s something that just needs to be shaken out of our nations psyche somehow? I will never why England don’t draft in Matt Le Tissier, he was just awesome at penalty taking. See this article.
"Brian Clough" and Robbie
World cup warm up shocker
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 25th, 2010
You could be forgiven, given the English papers this morning, that I was referring to England’s performance against Mexico. But no, this was Portugal’s electric preparation for the World Cup against the Cape Verde islands. Fielding a full strength squad they thrashed Cape Verde 0-0. You could still back a win for Portugal at 9′s in th dying moments of the match, not sure I have seen those sorts of odds before so late in a draw. Match report follows: -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2010/7762662/Portugal-0-Cape-Verde-0-match-report.html
Richest race in the world
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 27th, 2010
Today sees the worlds richest horse race take place at Meydan, the Dubai world cup.
I’ve dabbled on the Meydan markets this year and they have been just fine. A very useful addition to the P&L during the tough winter months. Therefore I’d recommend a dabble in these markets if the volume is holding up and there is no clashing with other races. The world cup stands out on it’s own as a race later in the day so that is definately worth a go. I only got £50 from it last year so should do better this year.
Today is the traditional start of the flat season, so I see the racing authorities have done their best to make make as many races clash as possible. Good luck!
EDIT – To view the trading result of this race, click here