Losing Confidence!

[mugsgame]

If i had 20.000 i could make £200 a day on long football trades, i have done one a day for the last two months on practise mode with a 5000 balance, i average about £60 a day, and maybe a break even once a week. But my aim at the moment is 70-100 a day from 2 to 6 on the horses, which seems to be working fine,if i can make 100 a day and the comfort level feels right trhis is where i may stay, soon as i save enough i'll do one big long trade a day as well as the horses, i only need to check it say every half hour it's very low risk. Seriously check it out if you start at the right time and get out the right time it's easy, it took me 3 days to suss it, i try and find a 7.55 kick off. For me the hardest thing to work it was how to cover my arse from a big loss on the horses, but after an e mail i recieved from another trader from here it just clicked, he did not tell me his edge but he did mention something he does, i was vey close for weeks i just needed that final tweak, and now i'm 100% sure it's in the bag. The great thing is if the markets change over time it does not matter.

Well done mate. You have cracked it and will soon have that 20k. easy isn't it? The system I bought off eBay for £2.50 gave the all the edge I needed. Dunno what all the fuss is about.

[frustrated]

I'm not sure if you guys are winding me up now lol. Lets say a five hour trade on one football team.

[Iron]

Again, I'm not sure what you mean.

Let's say you start your trade five hours before the off. Do you offer money to the ladder, or do you take a price? And what's your exit strategy?

BTW, if you think trading football matches hours before the off is easy, then I suggest that you have a word with LeTiss, as that's what he does for a living.

Jeff

I'm not sure if you guys are winding me up now lol. Lets say a five hour trade on one football team.

[mugsgame]

I'm not sure if you guys are winding me up now lol. Lets say a five hour trade on one football team.

Sorry mate, you have been on here 2 minutes and are giving it large. You come across as a real cock. Being the forum cock is my job, I work really hard at it

[Iron]

You come across as a real cock.

There's no need for that - I think he's a bit naive and over-confident, but he hasn't said anything that's out of order.

Jeff

[mugsgame]

Just having a little fun Jeff. I mean no disrespect to the fella.

[Iron]

OK, but when you call complete strangers cocks they might not always realise you're joking. Try it in a nightclub and see what happens!

Jeff

Just having a little fun Jeff. I mean no disrespect to the fella.

[frustrated]

I can make money that is all that matters.

I'm not saying i'm some expert, to be honest i'm still learning this great software. The football trading is very easy, the edge is just timing. Yes i do it for around five hours but not five hours before kick off, there often seems to be a change in the flow, an hour or two before the start, it's finding this period which has a slow but consistant stream or drift, and 90% of the time there is one, if i had the money i would be doing it for real now.

[frustrated]

Sorry jeff, i funnel all the money in on manual.

[Iron]

I can make money that is all that matters.

Are you sure?

What is your basis in fact for that statement?

Jeff

[Iron]

Yes i do it for around five hours but not five hours before kick off, there often seems to be a change in the flow, an hour or two before the start, it's finding this period which has a slow but consistant stream or drift, and 90% of the time there is one, if i had the money i would be doing it for real now.

Sorry jeff, i funnel all the money in on manual.

You may be onto something, but quite frankly I doubt it.

Firstly, why take money rather than offer it? One of the edges many (probably most) pros have is that they are offering money to the queue, and thereby exploiting the impatient mug punter at home who just grabs money from the queue.

Secondly, what makes you think that if a market has started to drift or steam, it will continue to do so? Sometimes it will, but sometimes it will stagnate, and sometimes it will reverse.

Thirdly, you don't seem to have an exit strategy. At what point do you close out for a profit or a loss?

And fourthly, what makes you think that the market won't adapt in time to remove the inefficiency that you think you've found, and thereby also remove your edge?

Jeff

[frustrated]

I cant be wrong i have been testing it to long, it is so slow it is unreal, if it takes five hours to make £60 it would take five hours the other way to lose it, it's not until ann hour before the game there is any hugh movement. It's steady but safe. I bet my life if you find a 7.45 kick off and lay or back 7 hours before and follow the stream or drift 90% of the time you could green up for £ 60 just get out for a se3t amount or two hours before, and of course red up if it does change direction say £40.00 loss then work on breaking even, it's not a volatile market.

[Iron]

Here's an instance where a system started to fail after succeeding spectacularly for thousands of bets:

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/04 ... revisited/

I wish you well, and I hope you really have found the keys to the kingdom, but quite frankly I suspect you've found nothing.

Are there any pre-off football traders in the forum who can comment on the soundness or otherwise of Frustrated's methodology?

Jeff

[threedogs]

Rogerlisa you have to know that nobody can jump from being a punter to a trader in a short time ..as everybody on here says its a long journey.. for myself i have tried and tried with the markets for years and only in the past few months have i had that dream success you talk about £300 a day but its by no means simple and the concentration required is enormous and i still make mistakes and sometimes trading is hard and very little profit and other days its like shelling peas like my best day recently was a Saturday where i made a profit of over £600 but like a Monday i may be lucky to come out with over £100 profit but it may come to you the success you desire but its nothing but hard work, persistence, patience and learning not to lose and dealing with losses in your mind and not giving up .. If you want a simple tip then look at areas where most people are doing one thing and losing and concentrate on ways of doing the opposite to make a profit and test out your theories .. good luck ..

[LeTiss]

Bloody Hell, I remember this thread so well. I can't believe it's 4 years ago - where the f**k has that time gone? It's disappeared in the blink of an eye!