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Postby Zenyatta » Tue Jul 26, 2011 1:03 pm

Yes, Jeff, see what Dave said, you know in Poker how it's recommended you play 'tight' (being selective about which hands to stay in) and 'aggressive' (betting to the max on the good hands). Same thing.

Here's an example of playing tight and agressive. Remember 'Blue Bunting' in the Irish Oaks. Form students knew it was a hold-up performer (comes from the rear) with a huge finish. It's SP was 3.80. In-Play it passed 10.00 (back), passed 20.00 (back), passed 30.00 (back), passing 40.00 (still backing!),passing 50.00, 60.00, 70.00+ In-Play, just keep hitting the back button and throwing hundreds at it, and then:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAhGFqAZ_hk

Hey presto, you've just hit the ball right out of the park! Sometimes you really do need big balls to win. But it's pychologically very hard for people to oppose the crowd.

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Postby andyfuller » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:25 pm

Ferru123 wrote:All I'm saying is that, unless you have the gift of second sight, you don't know when and where that 20 tick steam is going to arise.


Comes down to probability in the end. I don't enter my trades thinking this is a definite winning trade I enter thinking I have an 80% chance this is a winning trade, for example.

So you might not know for certain you are entering a winning trade but over time as long as you play with the probabilities on your side and you get your staking right you will come out in front.

Losing trades are part and parcel of trading.

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Postby Ferru123 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 6:42 pm

I agree.

BTW, here's a trading quote on that theme:

'When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right and wrong or win and lose no longer have the same significance'.

Mark Douglas

andyfuller wrote:So you might not know for certain you are entering a winning trade but over time as long as you play with the probabilities on your side and you get your staking right you will come out in front.

Losing trades are part and parcel of trading.

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Postby sweetybt » Wed Jul 27, 2011 7:03 pm

From the god father of traders

"Minder: An Officer and a Car Salesman (#7.0)" (1988)
Arthur Daley: A friend in need is a pest.

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Postby convoysur » Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:14 pm

Hi People ,
i had almost quit to-day after losing all my bank again. bla bla bla. you all know youve been there,when someone sent me this quote from my favourite motovational pearson ,Brian Tracy .,
.........................................
Don't be afraid to take chances. Most people achieved their greatest successes one step beyond what looked like their greatest failure.
brian tracy...................

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Postby Ferru123 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:37 pm

Hi Convoysur

Sorry to hear that.

If I were you, I would start with practice mode, and only use real money once you're profiting consistently and are confident you know what you're doing.

And consider this. If you trade at random, you'll more or less break even. So today, either you were unlucky or doing things that made you a worse trader than a random number generator! :)

I think people sabotage their trading by staying in bad trades and getting out of good trades as soon as they've got a small profit. It's due to the way humans respond emotionally to winning and losing money. You might want to have a listen to this recording by a guy called Mark Douglas, who's written a book you've probably heard of, called Trading In The Zone:
http://www.woodiescciclub.com/Lectures/ ... /index.htm

I came across a nice quote recently: 'Don't bet the deli to win a pickle!'. :lol:

Jeff

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Postby convoysur » Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:50 pm

Ferru
Thank you,
unfortunatly ,it just takes time,alot of time . ive been playing around now for 6 months,spent hundreds of hours studying, reading ,watching videos,trying to find and perfect my edge,even to properly use betangel takes a hell alot of practice and mistakes have to be made so one can learn, this forum really helps ,thee would be no chance without it and the angel.i will master it,gone through to much S""t to stop now.
Regards
Marc (THANKS FOR THE LINK )

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Postby Ferru123 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:08 pm

Good luck Marc. :)

I think an important thing to remember is that trading success is as much due to your own discipline as the techniques you use. Have you considered techniques like meditation, in order to get yourself in the right frame of mind for effective trading?

Jeff

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Postby convoysur » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:20 am

Hi Jeff,
true,true . the mind set is a very valuable tool. my background is sales, after attending a brian tracy seminar.i learned how affective visuliation is,i would sit in my car for 30 -40 seconds before a meeting with a client and visulaise the whole sales process and see my self leaving with the contract signed.
this alone increased my sales by at least one per week,with an adverage commission of 2.000 euros per sales,
why ive forgoten to use my mind tools i cant say ,
i guess i get complacent .i would say 70% of my mistakes on the exchange are mind games. Fear,Money fear, wrong entrance, wrong exit, thank you for reminding me .i must get the head right before i load up guardian.
can we get peter to add a warning when we are opening guardian????,,CAUTION HAVE YOU ENGAGED YOUR TRADING HEAD BEFORE LOADING GUARDIAN.
happy trading
Regards
Marc

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Postby Zenyatta » Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:16 am

Ferru123 wrote:
And consider this. If you trade at random, you'll more or less break even. So today, either you were unlucky or doing things that made you a worse trader than a random number generator! :)

Jeff


No, if you trade at random you will lose at the rate of Betfair commission 2%-5%. Trading involves repeatedly recycling your bank very rapidly, and as any newbie can tell you, without an edge, this will result in you repeatedly and rapidly blowing your entire bank... even if you are just a tiny fraction below break-even.

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