Eurovision

[Consty1]

Anyone looking to trade it this evening? I stumbled across the semi final on Tuesday night (the football season ending is killing me, roll on the Euro's!) and managed to green up on the Russian entry (Russian grannies for those who haven't seen).

The favourite seems short for an event of this type at 2.3 although I do think it'll win after hearing the entries.

[Euler]

I quite like the competition for the uncertainty it throws up.

Eurovision winners 2000-2010

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6A7s7lh ... re=related

Last year was close fought battle between Ireland, France and Azerbaijan. Sweden seem a bit short fort he vagaries of the voting system.

Ireland later.png

[PeterLe]

HI
Next Eurovision is coming up..Not that I will be watching it
A good post by Scott Ferguson - on sport is made for betting blog
Regards
Peter

[gutuami]

fat fingers

[gutuami]

this is the running order

First Semi-Final
Austria
Estonia
Slovenia
Croatia
Denmark
Russia
Ukraine
The Netherlands
Montenegro
Lithuania
Belarus
Moldova
Ireland
Cyprus
Belgium
Serbia


Second Semi-Final
Latvia
San Marino
F.Y.R. Macedonia
Azerbaijan
Finland
Malta
Bulgaria
Iceland
Greece
Israel
Armenia
Hungary
Norway
Albania
Georgia
Switzerland
Romania

[LeTiss 4pm]

I usually dip my toes into this market

You quite often find some decent swings, however Sweden were an absolute banker last year

[OnGoldWires]

Disclaimer – these are personal random thoughts for fun only. I have no special insight into this market, I have not studied it in depth and my taste in music is distinctly dodgy i.e. I like Elvis Costello - say no more!!

First and Seconds since "Love Shine a light" (1997)

Country, 1sts, 2nds
Azerbaijan 1 0
Belgium 0 1
Denmark 1 1
Estonia 1 0
Finland 1 0
Germany 1 0
Greece 1 0
Iceland 0 2
Israel 1 0
Italy 0 1
Latvia 1 0
Malta 0 2
Norway 1 0
Russia 1 3
Serbia 1 0
Serbia and Montenegro 0 1
Sweden 2 0
Turkey 1 1
Ukraine 1 2
United Kingdom 1 1

My thoughts looking at the list is that only Sweden have won it twice recently - i.e, there is fairly likely to be a unique winner. Both Iceland and Malta have 2 seconds and no wins. I am thinking Malta could get a sympathy vote!!!
Anyway Both Iceland and Malta feature in the second semi, so hold your plums till they get past "quali2".

I have even gone to the trouble of listening to Malta's entry. Think Mumford and Sons with repetitive strain injury. Although I have to say the audio quality on the Eurovision website was terrible.

As for Iceland, it is nowhere in the betting, but the guy singing it has got a very strong voice and looks a little like Kurt Cobain (which is probably a plus). Musically, it builds nicely and sounds like boys zone sing Titanic. I am thinking this could shorten in play.

I am also surprised that San Marino (who have failed in their previous 3 attempts to get to the final) are above a fairly strong (IMO) UK entry in the betting. But it is composed by a Eurovision veteran Ralph Siegel, who wrote the classic "Ein Bißchen Frieden" , which won in 1982. I have to say it builds to a satisfying climax and the singer is drop dead gorgeous, which can only help.

Also The Netherlands are a surprise fancy in the market given that they have failed to qualify for the final since 2004. They have qualified in the first semi final and their performer is an established artist with hits in several European countries. She is a looker, but I have to say on first listening I was not impressed, but given my musical taste that might be a good thing.

I think laying is probably safer than picking a winner and I think the "big 5" are always worth a lay. The big 5 are United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Only Germany have managed to win as a big 5 - the UK having won before the rule change. I think being in the semis, actually helps, It is extra rehearsal, it familiarises the televoters with the songs and crucially, I think some televoters resent the rule.

So in Summary
My Betting shorlist -depending on the second semi.
Iceland, Malta, San Marino and The Netherlands

My laying shortlist
United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain and Italy.
You can lay all these in one go on the "Big Five v The Field" market at 6.

Finally, GO BONNIE!!!

[PeterLe]

Well I just followed Scotts advice and went for Germany, I'll trade it out when the votes start and Germany drops
I was just thinking; looking at the swings on this one in previous years, it might be worthwhile taking the same approach as the golf..ie dutch the back half looking for shortening odds?
I assume Cross matching will apply so you should see some spikes as the contest progresses??
regards
Peter

Edit: I've just dutched some of the high odds, just for a cheeky £20, which will pay out about £190 (Im expecting a green on Germany too for 80-90 pounds)..just a bit of fun really, but dont think I can bear watching it..so think I will set something up on auto for this one!

[OnGoldWires]

Semi Final thoughts...
The Elephant in the room is that Denmark are odds on favourites.
Denmark have not won since 2000 and so could be due for it.
Could they do what Sweden did last year? I think Countries neighbouring the hosts usually get a good reaction in the venue and do well and I suspect the odds probably reflect the votes achieved in Semi Final 1. Could be upstaged tonight !

Really anything (except for UK winning) could happen. It might be worth trawling through the eliminated countries, seeing where they traditionally get their votes from and then transferring them on ...

[Consty1]

I did the listen test last night without looking at the odds for any of the entries. I found the one that stuck in my head the most was Denmark so I wasn't surprised to see it as favorite.

Not being in to any of the music is a bit of a problem but I found the ones that stuck in my head were Sweden, Ukraine (the girl singing it is ridiculously hot as well which helps) and Germany. Germany must stand a great chance of moving in with it being a big epic Trance track by Cascada (who have been number one across Europe over the last few years). It's so subjective though.

I remember employing a similar dutching strategy last year but the favorite just went from strength to strength.