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I'm on a research mission to discover ways of spotting a trend in any market on betfair.
The following are some of the ideas and opinions from a beginner trader.
I assume that it is possible to spot a trend in a market in the beginning phases. For example, market for a soccer match opens 3 days upfront. After few hours or even days there is a chance that you can spot a trend (there's a lot of markets opened every day, just need to check them regularly). Or take horses for example. Every day markets open a day upfront. In guardian you can see the volumes and check the horses and their graphs. So, I don't mean the trends in the last minutes before the start of event. I mean spotting a trend from the beginning of a market that is going up or down constantly.
So, my question is what are the ways to spot this trends.
Do you use technical judgments?
Intuition and experience from seeing thousands of graphs?
Do you use websites for market movers? (oddschecker, attheraces, betbrain etc)?
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- Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 6:01 am
Spotting trends 3 days before football matches KO is a tricky business because there are so many unknowns that can have an effect on the price.
First off you have to have an idea of what the prices should be for a given match as a starting point, and for that you really need to look at past similar games.
Another problem is that of little to no liquidity in the market at such an early stage, and if you look at the very early stages of BF charts you find volatility before a picture of the match begins to take shape.
Then there are issues such as injuries: what if a key player gets food poisoning (for example) two days before a match? This will have a huge impact on prices. Another example if this is the weather in Formula1. You might get two days of glorious sunshine in practice but on the day of the race a thunderstorm which again will have a huge effect on prices.
So taking a position very very early is quite dangerous and a bit of a lottery. Your best bet is to look at markets several hours before an event starts rather than days.
However if you want to look at bookies and other odds makers, Sporting Index can be a good place to start.
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- Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 11:58 am
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