lay all at back price

[Ferru123]

Consistent profit over a period does not necesarrily equal profit over a longer period or profit in the future.

I think that this is something that's often forgotten.

Let's say that you notice that, overall, the odds over-react at a particular point in a football match. Using that as a basis for a trading strategy might have worked fine for the past 10,000 trades. But Betfair is full of people searching for an edge (including Betfair themselves), and once the cat is out of the bag, then the edge may disappear (and the reverse strategy may even become profitable!).

Jeff

[Ferru123]

Consistent profit over a period does not necesarrily equal profit over a longer period or profit in the future.

I think that this is something that's often forgotten.

A very interesting graph on this page: http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/04 ... revisited/

This is why people who think they have found a winning system based on fundamentals (form, going, etc) need to be careful...

Jeff