Betfair set float price

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andyfuller
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SilentDave wrote:As we see here it drives people away or they look for ways round it.
I got the impression that it hadn't done that. Yes it has with a few such as Peter but on the whole it sounded like it had lead to more commission being taken and them earning more because of it. Have I miss understood what they said?
SilentDave
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You're right Andy, it looks like there has been some short term growth but I'm sure it's not as high as they expected and I think longer term it may well come back to haunt them. People who are still making good money even with a 60% premium charge are going to take a little time I'd have thought to migrate to more profitable pastures.
Also, as alternatives such as Betdaq gain liquidity more people will move away. If they have accelerated this tipping point then 60% PC is a bit of an own goal.
andyfuller
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Yeah fair points, most people can't up and leave straight away it takes time to get plans in place as I know from my own personal experience.

It will be interesting to see the impact in another year or more.
Iron
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Some interesting stats from our friends at Betfair:

http://corporate.betfair.com/investor-r ... istics.pdf

Jeff
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Euler
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Just put a cheeky short on BET.l
andyfuller
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Euler wrote:Just put a cheeky short on BET.l
What price did you manage to short them at? They fell from 838 to 824.8 with IG from 1pm to 2pm and have now rebounded back to 837.0

IG have a 7.2 Spread on them, underlying market has a 3.5 Spread at the minute.
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Euler
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835, so I am out of the money. But can you imagine M&S closing all their store by accident and not having an impact?
andyfuller
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Think it is a pretty safe trade, they haven't traded higher than 838 since 20th June 2011 bar 14th Dec where they went above briefly.

I have gone short on them now as well at 833.9 when they are trading at 837. Who do you use out of interest Peter, you seem to be getting a much tighter Spread than IG are offering.
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superfrank
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I'm inclined to agree with the govt. re increasing tax on offshore bookies... companies in general can be very shortsighted when it comes to offshoring (assuming that govts will not change tax regs in future).

I was talking to a senior consultant who advises City firms on IT strategy recently - it seems when they offshore IT development to India the firms expect cost savings of 40%+, but in reality the savings are usually in the region of 10-15% (and that doesn't take account of quality issues).
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Euler
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For those watching the share price an interim management statement is out next week.
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Euler
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Betfair interim statement released this morning: -

http://corporate.betfair.com/media/pres ... -2012.aspx
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Euler
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andyfuller
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With all this Australia stuff going on it is going to be interesting to see what happens with the share price in about 2 weeks when the Buy Back £50 million has all been used up. No more artificial propping up of the share price everyday.
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Euler
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I've been watching the price quite closely and it seems to be fairly well correlated to the ups and downs in the FTSE 250.

I think it's a complex picture. Aus is a negative but not massive, it's the implication that somebody has won the argument against exchanges that's the issue. That will quite likely have an impact elsewhere.

But they are obviously very keen to chase margins which will prop up the results. Chasing margins though can only last for so long. Your top line needs to grow as well. It's a busy sporting year as well, so that will prop things up short term.
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